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2025-12-16 16:41:15
[Interest Rate Spread Game: European Bond Market Tugs Between Technical and Psychological Levels] ⑴ The Italian 5-year and 10-year bond yield curve has flattened after a directional adjustment. According to three-month constant yield regression analysis, the 10-year Italian bond yield is 3.5 basis points lower than the beta-adjusted 5-year yield, a deviation of 2.0 standard deviations. ⑵ The German 5-year and 30-year bond yield spread, after a recent steepening of approximately 4 basis points, has seen little intraday change. Its trend support is at 95 basis points, with a base level at 92 basis points. ⑶ The German 5-year bond yield has fallen by about 6 basis points after peaking at 2.52% on December 10th, showing slight signs of a short-term top. ⑷ The German 30-year bond yield reached a high of nearly 3.50% last Friday, a significant psychological level. A break above this level could encounter resistance around 3.55%. (5) The market is focusing on the interaction between key technical levels and psychological barriers. Short-term trends may depend on whether these technical levels can be effectively broken or defended.
