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2025-12-16 16:41:42
[On the Eve of Policy Decisions, Japanese Bond Yields Hesitate Before Multi-Year Highs] ⑴ The 2-year Japanese government bond yield stabilized after hitting a high of 1.08% on December 10th, and slightly retreated ahead of Friday's Bank of Japan meeting, where the market widely expects a 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75%. ⑵ If the yield on this maturity resumes its upward trend, the 1.10% level will be closely watched, followed by key resistance at the July 2007 high of 1.135%. ⑶ The 5-year yield encountered resistance after repeatedly hitting a high of 1.45%, with 1.50% being an important psychological level. If the upward trend continues, the next key level is 1.555% from June 2008. ⑷ The 10-year yield, after reaching 1.97%, has not yet challenged the 2006/2007 level of 2.00%, with initial support at 1.90%. (5) The 30-year yield peaked at 3.455% on December 4th, with 3.50% acting as psychological resistance. The technical target is 3.68%. (6) The market is cautious ahead of major policy decisions, and yields are temporarily pausing at key historical highs and psychological levels. Whether or not a breakthrough occurs will depend on the market's interpretation after the policy is implemented.
