Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-12-16 17:21:32
[UK Employment Collapse, Bank of England Rate Cut Imminent] ⑴ The UK Office for National Statistics announced on Tuesday that the unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in the three months to October, a new high since the beginning of 2021. During the same period, private sector wage growth, excluding bonuses, was only 3.9%, the lowest since the end of 2020. ⑵ Revenue and Customs data showed that the number of taxable employees decreased by 38,000 in November compared to the previous month, and the October decline was revised upward from 22,000 to 32,000, confirming the "visible collapse" of the labor market. ⑶ Following Chancellor Reeves' increase in employers' social security contributions in October, companies' willingness to hire plummeted. Coupled with ongoing pre-budget policy speculation, economic momentum has weakened, and Indeed's data shows that the number of job postings in low-wage industries has declined by 9% year-on-year. ⑷ Although public sector wage growth surged to 7.6%, the fastest since records began in 2001, it could not offset the weakness in the private sector, with overall regular wage growth falling to 4.6%, the lowest point since April 2022. (5) The market has almost fully priced in the Bank of England's 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday. The November CPI forecast, to be released on Wednesday, has been slightly lowered from 3.6% to 3.5%, still well above the 2% target. Weak employment data has cleared the final hurdle for monetary easing.
