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2025-12-16 18:30:25
[Dual Mandate in Crisis: What Kind of Market Movement Will a Disappointing Non-Farm Payroll Report Trigger?] ⑴ Wells Fargo points out that the latest data will increasingly clarify that the Fed's "full employment" goal, part of its dual mandate, is currently facing risks. ⑵ The head of fixed income at DWS Americas believes that the non-farm payroll data released this time may be "the most important data point next year," and the direction of the labor market will directly determine the direction of interest rates. ⑶ The market generally expects weak employment data; any downside surprise could lead to earlier expectations of the Fed's next rate cut, thereby supporting gold prices and accelerating the sell-off of the dollar. ⑷ Morgan Stanley analysts say that the market has now returned to a state where "good economic news is bad news for the stock market," and a weak employment report may exacerbate expectations of another Fed rate cut in the first quarter of next year, thereby boosting the stock market. ⑸ However, Saxo Bank warns that if the data is overly positive and triggers a repricing of interest rates, rising yields will impact risk assets, especially long-term growth stocks. (6) The head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree tends to believe that the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end, with the neutral interest rate likely around 3.5%. Strong data could trigger a sell-off in US Treasuries. (7) Goldman Sachs believes that while weak data may temporarily suppress the dollar, given the Fed chairman's indication that he will carefully review the data, overall market volatility may be less than in the past. (8) Allspring Global Investments points out that the new Fed chairman may favor a more accommodative policy stance, and any signs of weakness in the job market could provide the new leadership with grounds for rate cuts.
