Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-12-16 18:45:55
[Oil Price Shock: Economic Concerns Behind Azerbaijan's Current Account Surplus Halved] ⑴ The Central Bank of Azerbaijan stated on Tuesday that the country's current account surplus fell to $3 billion in the first nine months of this year, accounting for 5.4% of GDP, down from $4 billion in the same period last year. ⑵ The Central Bank explicitly stated that the decline in the surplus was mainly driven by the drop in global oil prices. ⑶ By sector, the oil and gas sector surplus fell 3.7% year-on-year to $10.7 billion, while the non-oil and gas sector deficit widened by 7.5% year-on-year to $7.7 billion. ⑷ The oil and gas industry contributes more than half of the country's GDP and about 90% of its export revenue, highlighting the single-sector dependence of its economy. ⑸ In the first nine months of this year, Azerbaijan's total foreign trade volume fell to $30.8 billion year-on-year, with exports falling to $18.2 billion and imports rising slightly to $12.6 billion. ⑹ The Central Bank has lowered its 2026 current account surplus forecast to $1.9 billion, far below its expectation of reaching $3.7 billion by the end of this year. (7) Based on an average oil price of $65 per barrel, the central bank expects the surplus to further decrease to $1.56 billion in 2027 and to $1.23 billion in 2028. (8) It is projected that by 2029, with the commissioning of the Shah Deniz Phase III development project, the largest gas field, leading to stable natural gas production, the surplus is expected to rebound to $1.84 billion.
