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[US October Retail Sales Show Dull Performance, Key Indicators Exceed Expectations] ⑴ US retail sales rose 0.0% month-over-month in October, below the expected 0.1%. The previous figure (September) was revised down from 0.2% to 0.1%. ⑵ Retail sales excluding automobiles rose 0.4% month-over-month, higher than the expected 0.3%. The previous figure was revised down from 0.3% to 0.1%. ⑶ Retail sales excluding automobiles and gasoline rose 0.5% month-over-month, compared to 0.0% in the previous month (revised from 0.1%). The control group (used to calculate GDP) rose 0.8% month-over-month, significantly higher than the expected 0.4%, compared to a 0.1% decline in the previous month. ⑷ Retail sales data is one of the clearest and most timely key indicators of consumer demand, and consumption accounts for about two-thirds of overall US economic activity. Because this data is released monthly and directly included in GDP calculations, the market often uses it to reassess economic growth momentum, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and the short-term direction of Treasury yields, the stock market, and the US dollar. (5) Overall retail sales data measures total spending but can be affected by fluctuations in automobile and gasoline prices. Therefore, traders pay more attention to retail sales excluding automobiles, which more clearly reflects underlying demand; and control group data (excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services), which is directly included in the personal consumption expenditure portion of GDP. (6) Strong control group data generally indicates robust growth in the real economy, while weakness can quickly trigger concerns about a recession or slowdown. (7) Internal category data is just as important as overall data. Strong performance in discretionary consumption categories such as online sales, food services, and general merchandise indicates strong consumer confidence and healthy labor income. (8) Conversely, weak performance in multiple categories or growth dependent on necessities may indicate that consumers are becoming more cautious, even if overall data appears stable. (9) For the market, strong retail sales data often supports higher Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, especially if accompanied by signs of rising prices or wages. Weak or slowing sales data typically depress yields and the dollar, reinforcing market expectations of further easing by the Federal Reserve. (10) Traders ultimately use this report to determine whether US consumers are driving growth, merely maintaining growth, or beginning to contract, which affects both short-term market trends and shapes the broader macroeconomic landscape.