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2025-12-16 21:37:31
[Data Fog: A Non-Farm Payroll Report "Distorted" by the Government Shutdown] ⑴ US non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, stronger than expected, while October's figure was revised to a decrease of 105,000, mainly reflecting the impact of federal employees accepting buyouts. ⑵ The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, but this data is at risk of distortion due to statistical disruptions caused by the government shutdown; statistical agencies pointed out that its error may be higher than usual. ⑶ Agencies warned that the unusually large number of new samples participating in the November household survey could lead to an upward bias in the unemployment rate. ⑷ Household sentiment towards the labor market deteriorated in November, with economists attributing the slowdown in hiring to the impact of Trump's tariff rhetoric, leading to business caution and affecting consumer spending. ⑸ The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates last week as a result, but hinted that the threshold for further rate cuts in the short term is high, requiring a clearer outlook for the labor market and inflation. ⑹ The Federal Reserve Chairman previously cited preliminary revised data indicating that job growth in the 12 months ending in March may have been 911,000 fewer than originally reported, averaging 76,000 fewer per month, indicating downside risks. (7) The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the final revised employment data benchmark in February next year, which will provide a more accurate basis for judging the true strength of the labor market.
