Following the release of the non-farm payrolls data, a fierce battle ensued between gold bulls and bears around the 4
2025-12-16 21:57:36
On Tuesday (December 16), spot gold maintained a volatile trend, experiencing a rise followed by a fall for the third consecutive trading day, as the market digested various negative factors. It is currently trading at $4306.32 per ounce.
Although the recent weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial to gold bulls, and the market interprets the US non-farm payroll and retail sales data as positive and is inclined to accept them, gold also faces a number of negative factors, which together influence the price trend of gold.
Economists predicted that the November nonfarm payrolls report would show an increase of approximately 50,000 jobs, with the actual figure being 64,000, exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate was expected to remain stable at 4.4%, with the actual figure being 4.6%. Due to the government shutdown causing disruptions in the collection of some labor market data, this report will also include some updates to the October data.
For reference, non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September. It is also important to note that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned at last week's meeting that the non-farm payrolls figures released since April may have been overestimated by approximately 60,000.
Meanwhile, retail sales increased by 0.2% month-on-month in September, while they increased by 0% month-on-month in October.
One of the core reasons for the recent rise in gold prices is the weakening of the US dollar. Gold is priced in US dollars, and as a substitute for the US dollar, the most important international reserve currency, the decline in the US dollar directly benefits gold.
Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and announced a Reserve Management Purchase Program (RMP) to buy short-term Treasury bonds in hopes of lowering short-term Treasury yields, the 30-year Treasury yield continued to hit new highs, which is not conducive to safe-haven funds that do not generate interest.
Market drivers: Optimism surrounding peace talks, US employment data, and signals from the Federal Reserve are the core focus. Reports indicate that progress in the US-led Russia-Ukraine peace talks has eased geopolitical tensions to some extent, thereby curbing safe-haven inflows into gold.
Ukrainian officials revealed that peace talks in Berlin had made "substantial progress," noting that consultations with the U.S. envoy were constructive and fruitful, including discussions on issues related to providing strong security guarantees for Kyiv.
US President Donald Trump echoed this optimistic outlook, saying that a peace agreement is "closer than ever before," while senior US officials indicated that the US government intends to provide NATO-style security guarantees as an important part of the negotiation framework.
The market is also closely watching potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve: Kevin Hassett's candidacy has been opposed by members of President Donald Trump's inner circle, which has shifted market attention to former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh—who is now increasingly seen as the leading contender to succeed Jerome Powell as chairman. Betting odds now show Hassett with only a 51% chance, down from 80% previously.
Spot gold maintained its upward trend, with the 5, 10, 20, and 30-day moving averages all showing a bullish alignment and diverging upwards. However, the repeated surges and pullbacks indicate significant divergence at this level. After the release of the non-farm payroll data, gold needs more data to obtain further guidance.
The resistance level is near the upper channel line and the previous high of 4381. Be wary of MACD divergence here.
Support levels are at the 5-day moving average and the lower channel line, followed by the key price level around 4236.62.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 21:07 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $4,306 per ounce.
Although the recent weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial to gold bulls, and the market interprets the US non-farm payroll and retail sales data as positive and is inclined to accept them, gold also faces a number of negative factors, which together influence the price trend of gold.
The supplementary non-farm payroll data was generally positive, and the market accepted it.
Economists predicted that the November nonfarm payrolls report would show an increase of approximately 50,000 jobs, with the actual figure being 64,000, exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate was expected to remain stable at 4.4%, with the actual figure being 4.6%. Due to the government shutdown causing disruptions in the collection of some labor market data, this report will also include some updates to the October data.
For reference, non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September. It is also important to note that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned at last week's meeting that the non-farm payrolls figures released since April may have been overestimated by approximately 60,000.
Meanwhile, retail sales increased by 0.2% month-on-month in September, while they increased by 0% month-on-month in October.
The continued decline in the US dollar index is beneficial to gold.
One of the core reasons for the recent rise in gold prices is the weakening of the US dollar. Gold is priced in US dollars, and as a substitute for the US dollar, the most important international reserve currency, the decline in the US dollar directly benefits gold.
A sharp rise in the 30-year US Treasury yield is bearish for gold.
Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates and announced a Reserve Management Purchase Program (RMP) to buy short-term Treasury bonds in hopes of lowering short-term Treasury yields, the 30-year Treasury yield continued to hit new highs, which is not conducive to safe-haven funds that do not generate interest.
There are signs of easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which is bearish for gold.
Market drivers: Optimism surrounding peace talks, US employment data, and signals from the Federal Reserve are the core focus. Reports indicate that progress in the US-led Russia-Ukraine peace talks has eased geopolitical tensions to some extent, thereby curbing safe-haven inflows into gold.
Ukrainian officials revealed that peace talks in Berlin had made "substantial progress," noting that consultations with the U.S. envoy were constructive and fruitful, including discussions on issues related to providing strong security guarantees for Kyiv.
US President Donald Trump echoed this optimistic outlook, saying that a peace agreement is "closer than ever before," while senior US officials indicated that the US government intends to provide NATO-style security guarantees as an important part of the negotiation framework.
New suspense emerges regarding the ultra-dovish Federal Reserve candidate.
The market is also closely watching potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve: Kevin Hassett's candidacy has been opposed by members of President Donald Trump's inner circle, which has shifted market attention to former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh—who is now increasingly seen as the leading contender to succeed Jerome Powell as chairman. Betting odds now show Hassett with only a 51% chance, down from 80% previously.
Technical Analysis:
Spot gold maintained its upward trend, with the 5, 10, 20, and 30-day moving averages all showing a bullish alignment and diverging upwards. However, the repeated surges and pullbacks indicate significant divergence at this level. After the release of the non-farm payroll data, gold needs more data to obtain further guidance.
The resistance level is near the upper channel line and the previous high of 4381. Be wary of MACD divergence here.
Support levels are at the 5-day moving average and the lower channel line, followed by the key price level around 4236.62.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 21:07 Beijing time, spot gold is currently trading at $4,306 per ounce.
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