December 17th Financial Breakfast: Gold prices held steady above $4300; non-farm payroll data strengthened expectations of future Fed rate cuts; oil prices hit a five-year low.
2025-12-17 07:23:27
On Wednesday (December 17, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,304 per ounce. Despite conflicting US non-farm payroll data, gold prices were supported by rising US unemployment in November, which strengthened expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, resulting in limited volatility on Tuesday. US crude oil was trading around $55.15 per barrel. Oil prices fell more than 2.6% on Tuesday, closing at their lowest level in nearly five years. Continued concerns about oversupply and expectations that the prospects for peace between Russia and Ukraine might lead to a relaxation of sanctions against Russia exacerbated market pressure.
Federal Reserve Governors Waller and Williams delivered speeches.
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising slightly, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 fell, dragged down by healthcare and energy stocks. The market is assessing delayed U.S. jobs and retail sales data to gauge the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.62%, the S&P 500 fell 0.24%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose slightly by 0.23%. On the sector front, the energy sector led the decline, falling nearly 3%, while the healthcare sector fell 1.28%, and Pfizer fell 3.4% due to a poor earnings outlook for 2026.
On the economic data front, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November, indicating a rebound in the job market; however, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, while retail sales remained flat in October. Analysts pointed out that the recent government shutdown may have distorted the data, limiting its impact on Federal Reserve policy.
Investors now expect interest rate cuts of at least 58 basis points in 2026, far exceeding the 25 basis point forecast by the Federal Reserve last week. Furthermore, it is reported that Trump will interview Federal Reserve Governor Waller on Wednesday to consider his potential appointment as Fed chairman.
Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday, mainly driven by data showing a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate in November. The market believes this will strengthen expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and lead to a weaker dollar, increasing the appeal of gold.
At the close, spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,310.21 per ounce. U.S. gold futures fell slightly by 0.1%. The dollar index fell to a two-month low, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged lower, both providing support for gold prices.
Market analysts believe the latest jobs report provides the Federal Reserve with more reasons to cut interest rates, and a low-interest-rate environment typically benefits gold. Data shows that while US non-farm payrolls rebounded in November, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% from 4.4% in September, higher than economists' expectations. Currently, the interest rate futures market projects that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a cumulative total of approximately 59 basis points by 2026.
Investors are awaiting the release of the U.S. November Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index later this week for further confirmation of the inflation path. Some analysts predict that if gold closes above $4,400 per ounce in 2025, it could potentially rise to the $4,859-$5,590 range in 2026.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell slightly by 0.3%; platinum surged by 4%, reaching its highest level since September 2011; and palladium also rose by 2.5%, hitting a two-month high.
International oil prices extended their decline on Tuesday, closing at their lowest level in nearly five years since February 2021. Persistent concerns about oversupply, along with expectations that the prospect of peace between Russia and Ukraine might lead to a relaxation of sanctions against Russia, combined to exacerbate market pressures.
Brent crude futures fell about 2.71% to settle at $58.92 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures fell 2.66% to settle at $55.17 a barrel. Analysts pointed out that the market is assessing that a potential peace agreement could lead to more Russian crude entering the market, thus exacerbating the supply glut. Meanwhile, the six-month Brent futures spread turned positive for the first time since October, which is seen as a signal of ample or even excessive supply in the near term.
While the U.S. seizure of an oil tanker near Venezuela last week provided some support, its impact was mitigated by the surplus of floating storage and the large-scale pre-purchase of Venezuelan oil by various countries.
The dollar fell against major currencies on Tuesday as the latest data showed stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls growth in November, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, which the market interpreted as a potential reason for the Federal Reserve to be cautious about further interest rate cuts in the near term.
Specifically, data showed that the US added 64,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November, better than market expectations. However, the unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%, and the new jobs were mainly concentrated in non-cyclical industries such as healthcare. Analysts believe the report's internal divergence suggests that cyclical economic momentum remains limited. The US dollar index fell 0.11% to 98.15, declining for the second consecutive trading day.
Among other major currencies, the euro rose slightly by 0.05% against the dollar to $1.1788, its highest level since September. The pound performed strongly, rising 0.39% against the dollar to $1.34305, a two-month high, as markets anticipated a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of England this week.
The dollar fell 0.36% to 154.65 yen ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Friday.
Zelensky: The Ukrainian negotiating delegation will travel to the United States for consultations in the coming days.
On December 16 local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the Netherlands. At a joint press conference with the Dutch Prime Minister, he stated that the Ukrainian negotiating delegation would visit the United States this weekend or early next week to further discuss plans to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Zelenskyy said, “After two days of effort, some important progress has been made. Yesterday, the United States also received a response from Europe. In light of these responses, I believe the US will contact Russia, and subsequently, a negotiating team meeting will be held in the US with the Ukrainian negotiating delegation. I think in the next few days—perhaps this weekend, perhaps a little later.”
Report: Trump plans to interview Federal Reserve Governor Waller and consider nominating him as Federal Reserve Chairman.
According to sources, President Trump will interview another Federal Reserve chair nominee, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, this Wednesday. Officials cautioned that the selection process is progressing rapidly, and President Trump is still weighing his options, so the meeting could be postponed or canceled. Trump interviewed former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh last week, stating that Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett are the top candidates for the position. Waller was nominated to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors late in Trump's term in 2020 and confirmed by the Senate. This year, he has become a key figure within the Fed advocating for interest rate cuts. The Fed has announced rate cuts of 25 basis points in its three most recent policy meetings. When the Fed chose to keep rates unchanged in July, Waller voted against it, advocating for a rate cut. The White House has not yet responded to requests for comment.
Tech giants push Congress to streamline approval processes for AI and chip projects.
Tech giants including OpenAI, Meta, and Microsoft are urging Congress to pass legislation to reform the federal licensing process in order to expedite the construction of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and semiconductor manufacturing projects within the United States. The full House of Representatives is likely to vote this week on the bill, the Accelerated Licensing Efficiency to Enhance Digital Competitiveness Act (SPEED Act). The bill passed a key procedural vote on Tuesday.
Hungary and the United States sign liquefied natural gas purchase agreement
Hungarian Foreign Minister Sir Alexis Szijjártó announced in Budapest on December 16 that Hungarian Electricity Company (EDC) and U.S. Chevron Corporation had signed a five-year agreement for the purchase of 2 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Szijjártó made the announcement at a joint press conference with U.S. Deputy Secretary of Energy James Danley. Szijjártó stated that under the agreement, Chevron will supply EDC with 400 million cubic meters of LNG annually. This marks the first time U.S. LNG has been included in Hungary's energy supply structure. Szijjártó also mentioned that Hungary has signed a contract with Westinghouse Electric Corporation for the supply of nuclear fuel for the Pákš nuclear power plant, scheduled to begin operation between 2028 and 2029. The two sides also reached an agreement on using U.S. technology to construct small modular reactors in Hungary. (CCTV News)
The United States launches the "Tech Power" initiative to recruit 1,000 AI talents.
The U.S. government launched the so-called "US Tech Force" program, which will deploy about 1,000 entry-level technical personnel to various federal agencies, each on a two-year contract; private partners include Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle (ORCL), Palantir (PLTR), and Salesforce (CRM).
Trump signs proclamation further restricting entry into the United States for foreign citizens.
On December 16 local time, the White House announced that President Trump had signed a proclamation further restricting the entry of foreign citizens. The White House stated that the United States is imposing full restrictions and entry restrictions on individuals from five countries—Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, South Sudan, and Syria—as well as those holding travel documents issued by the Palestinian National Authority; full restrictions and entry restrictions are also being imposed on Laos and Sierra Leone, two countries previously subject to partial restrictions; and partial restrictions and entry restrictions are being imposed on the following 15 countries: Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Benin, Ivory Coast, Dominica, Gabon, Gambia, Malawi, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Tonga, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. In addition, the United States is lifting the ban on non-immigrant visas but continues to suspend the entry of Turkmen citizens as immigrants. (CCTV News)
The US has threatened retaliation or a Section 301 investigation against the EU's digital services tax plan.
The Trump administration has threatened retaliatory measures against the European Union in response to its tariffs on U.S. tech companies, including Accenture, Siemens, and Spotify Technology SA, which could become targets of new restrictions or fees. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) posted on social media Tuesday, stating, “If the EU and its member states persist in using discriminatory means to restrict, constrain, and hinder the competitiveness of U.S. service providers, the United States will have no choice but to begin using all available tools to counter these unreasonable measures.” The post added, “If retaliatory measures are necessary, U.S. law allows for actions such as charging fees or imposing restrictions on foreign service providers.” According to an unnamed source, the U.S. is preparing to launch an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the government to take trade remedies, including tariffs.
The European Commission plans to issue approximately €90 billion in bonds in the first half of next year.
The European Commission announced on December 16 that it plans to issue approximately €90 billion in bonds in the first half of 2026. The proceeds will be used to support Ukraine and provide loans to member states. The funds will be distributed through the "Next Generation EU" program and the "European Security Action" mechanism. The European Commission stated that it will provide up to €33 billion in loans to Ukraine between 2024 and 2027. Analysts believe that given the internal divisions within the EU regarding the use of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, this large-scale bond issuance plan aims to provide Ukraine with continuous and stable financial support. (CCTV News)
The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission stated that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for next year.
The Central Economic Work Conference, held from December 10th to 11th, 2025, has attracted much attention. Focusing on hot issues of public concern, relevant officials from the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission gave interviews to major central media outlets after the conference, providing in-depth interpretations of its spirit. When answering questions about the development of domestic demand and the space and impetus for boosting consumption and expanding investment, the official stated that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for next year. This year, my country's domestic demand has remained generally robust, contributing 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters. Policies to boost consumption have yielded significant results, and the expansion of effective investment has been steadily promoted. We have also noted that the growth rates of consumption and investment have slowed down in recent months, necessitating continued efforts to expand domestic demand. (CCTV News)
Key Focus Today
Federal Reserve Governors Waller and Williams delivered speeches.
stock market
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising slightly, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 fell, dragged down by healthcare and energy stocks. The market is assessing delayed U.S. jobs and retail sales data to gauge the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.62%, the S&P 500 fell 0.24%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose slightly by 0.23%. On the sector front, the energy sector led the decline, falling nearly 3%, while the healthcare sector fell 1.28%, and Pfizer fell 3.4% due to a poor earnings outlook for 2026.
On the economic data front, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November, indicating a rebound in the job market; however, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, while retail sales remained flat in October. Analysts pointed out that the recent government shutdown may have distorted the data, limiting its impact on Federal Reserve policy.
Investors now expect interest rate cuts of at least 58 basis points in 2026, far exceeding the 25 basis point forecast by the Federal Reserve last week. Furthermore, it is reported that Trump will interview Federal Reserve Governor Waller on Wednesday to consider his potential appointment as Fed chairman.
Gold Market
Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday, mainly driven by data showing a rise in the U.S. unemployment rate in November. The market believes this will strengthen expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and lead to a weaker dollar, increasing the appeal of gold.
At the close, spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,310.21 per ounce. U.S. gold futures fell slightly by 0.1%. The dollar index fell to a two-month low, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged lower, both providing support for gold prices.
Market analysts believe the latest jobs report provides the Federal Reserve with more reasons to cut interest rates, and a low-interest-rate environment typically benefits gold. Data shows that while US non-farm payrolls rebounded in November, the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% from 4.4% in September, higher than economists' expectations. Currently, the interest rate futures market projects that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a cumulative total of approximately 59 basis points by 2026.
Investors are awaiting the release of the U.S. November Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index later this week for further confirmation of the inflation path. Some analysts predict that if gold closes above $4,400 per ounce in 2025, it could potentially rise to the $4,859-$5,590 range in 2026.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell slightly by 0.3%; platinum surged by 4%, reaching its highest level since September 2011; and palladium also rose by 2.5%, hitting a two-month high.
oil market
International oil prices extended their decline on Tuesday, closing at their lowest level in nearly five years since February 2021. Persistent concerns about oversupply, along with expectations that the prospect of peace between Russia and Ukraine might lead to a relaxation of sanctions against Russia, combined to exacerbate market pressures.
Brent crude futures fell about 2.71% to settle at $58.92 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures fell 2.66% to settle at $55.17 a barrel. Analysts pointed out that the market is assessing that a potential peace agreement could lead to more Russian crude entering the market, thus exacerbating the supply glut. Meanwhile, the six-month Brent futures spread turned positive for the first time since October, which is seen as a signal of ample or even excessive supply in the near term.
While the U.S. seizure of an oil tanker near Venezuela last week provided some support, its impact was mitigated by the surplus of floating storage and the large-scale pre-purchase of Venezuelan oil by various countries.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar fell against major currencies on Tuesday as the latest data showed stronger-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls growth in November, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, which the market interpreted as a potential reason for the Federal Reserve to be cautious about further interest rate cuts in the near term.
Specifically, data showed that the US added 64,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November, better than market expectations. However, the unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.6%, and the new jobs were mainly concentrated in non-cyclical industries such as healthcare. Analysts believe the report's internal divergence suggests that cyclical economic momentum remains limited. The US dollar index fell 0.11% to 98.15, declining for the second consecutive trading day.
Among other major currencies, the euro rose slightly by 0.05% against the dollar to $1.1788, its highest level since September. The pound performed strongly, rising 0.39% against the dollar to $1.34305, a two-month high, as markets anticipated a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of England this week.
The dollar fell 0.36% to 154.65 yen ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Friday.
International News
Zelensky: The Ukrainian negotiating delegation will travel to the United States for consultations in the coming days.
On December 16 local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the Netherlands. At a joint press conference with the Dutch Prime Minister, he stated that the Ukrainian negotiating delegation would visit the United States this weekend or early next week to further discuss plans to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Zelenskyy said, “After two days of effort, some important progress has been made. Yesterday, the United States also received a response from Europe. In light of these responses, I believe the US will contact Russia, and subsequently, a negotiating team meeting will be held in the US with the Ukrainian negotiating delegation. I think in the next few days—perhaps this weekend, perhaps a little later.”
Report: Trump plans to interview Federal Reserve Governor Waller and consider nominating him as Federal Reserve Chairman.
According to sources, President Trump will interview another Federal Reserve chair nominee, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, this Wednesday. Officials cautioned that the selection process is progressing rapidly, and President Trump is still weighing his options, so the meeting could be postponed or canceled. Trump interviewed former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh last week, stating that Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett are the top candidates for the position. Waller was nominated to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors late in Trump's term in 2020 and confirmed by the Senate. This year, he has become a key figure within the Fed advocating for interest rate cuts. The Fed has announced rate cuts of 25 basis points in its three most recent policy meetings. When the Fed chose to keep rates unchanged in July, Waller voted against it, advocating for a rate cut. The White House has not yet responded to requests for comment.
Tech giants push Congress to streamline approval processes for AI and chip projects.
Tech giants including OpenAI, Meta, and Microsoft are urging Congress to pass legislation to reform the federal licensing process in order to expedite the construction of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and semiconductor manufacturing projects within the United States. The full House of Representatives is likely to vote this week on the bill, the Accelerated Licensing Efficiency to Enhance Digital Competitiveness Act (SPEED Act). The bill passed a key procedural vote on Tuesday.
Hungary and the United States sign liquefied natural gas purchase agreement
Hungarian Foreign Minister Sir Alexis Szijjártó announced in Budapest on December 16 that Hungarian Electricity Company (EDC) and U.S. Chevron Corporation had signed a five-year agreement for the purchase of 2 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Szijjártó made the announcement at a joint press conference with U.S. Deputy Secretary of Energy James Danley. Szijjártó stated that under the agreement, Chevron will supply EDC with 400 million cubic meters of LNG annually. This marks the first time U.S. LNG has been included in Hungary's energy supply structure. Szijjártó also mentioned that Hungary has signed a contract with Westinghouse Electric Corporation for the supply of nuclear fuel for the Pákš nuclear power plant, scheduled to begin operation between 2028 and 2029. The two sides also reached an agreement on using U.S. technology to construct small modular reactors in Hungary. (CCTV News)
The United States launches the "Tech Power" initiative to recruit 1,000 AI talents.
The U.S. government launched the so-called "US Tech Force" program, which will deploy about 1,000 entry-level technical personnel to various federal agencies, each on a two-year contract; private partners include Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle (ORCL), Palantir (PLTR), and Salesforce (CRM).
Trump signs proclamation further restricting entry into the United States for foreign citizens.
On December 16 local time, the White House announced that President Trump had signed a proclamation further restricting the entry of foreign citizens. The White House stated that the United States is imposing full restrictions and entry restrictions on individuals from five countries—Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, South Sudan, and Syria—as well as those holding travel documents issued by the Palestinian National Authority; full restrictions and entry restrictions are also being imposed on Laos and Sierra Leone, two countries previously subject to partial restrictions; and partial restrictions and entry restrictions are being imposed on the following 15 countries: Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Benin, Ivory Coast, Dominica, Gabon, Gambia, Malawi, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal, Tanzania, Tonga, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. In addition, the United States is lifting the ban on non-immigrant visas but continues to suspend the entry of Turkmen citizens as immigrants. (CCTV News)
The US has threatened retaliation or a Section 301 investigation against the EU's digital services tax plan.
The Trump administration has threatened retaliatory measures against the European Union in response to its tariffs on U.S. tech companies, including Accenture, Siemens, and Spotify Technology SA, which could become targets of new restrictions or fees. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) posted on social media Tuesday, stating, “If the EU and its member states persist in using discriminatory means to restrict, constrain, and hinder the competitiveness of U.S. service providers, the United States will have no choice but to begin using all available tools to counter these unreasonable measures.” The post added, “If retaliatory measures are necessary, U.S. law allows for actions such as charging fees or imposing restrictions on foreign service providers.” According to an unnamed source, the U.S. is preparing to launch an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the government to take trade remedies, including tariffs.
The European Commission plans to issue approximately €90 billion in bonds in the first half of next year.
The European Commission announced on December 16 that it plans to issue approximately €90 billion in bonds in the first half of 2026. The proceeds will be used to support Ukraine and provide loans to member states. The funds will be distributed through the "Next Generation EU" program and the "European Security Action" mechanism. The European Commission stated that it will provide up to €33 billion in loans to Ukraine between 2024 and 2027. Analysts believe that given the internal divisions within the EU regarding the use of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, this large-scale bond issuance plan aims to provide Ukraine with continuous and stable financial support. (CCTV News)
Domestic News
The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission stated that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for next year.
The Central Economic Work Conference, held from December 10th to 11th, 2025, has attracted much attention. Focusing on hot issues of public concern, relevant officials from the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission gave interviews to major central media outlets after the conference, providing in-depth interpretations of its spirit. When answering questions about the development of domestic demand and the space and impetus for boosting consumption and expanding investment, the official stated that expanding domestic demand is the top priority for next year. This year, my country's domestic demand has remained generally robust, contributing 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters. Policies to boost consumption have yielded significant results, and the expansion of effective investment has been steadily promoted. We have also noted that the growth rates of consumption and investment have slowed down in recent months, necessitating continued efforts to expand domestic demand. (CCTV News)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
