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2025-12-17 14:36:43
[EUR/USD weakens to around 1.1730 due to ECB rate stagnation expectations] 1. EUR/USD fell to around 1.1730 during the Asian and European sessions on Wednesday (December 17), a drop of about 0.20%, influenced by rising demand for the US dollar. However, the potential downside for major currency pairs may be limited as the market increasingly accepts the view that the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle. The market widely expects the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting on Thursday. Since July, the central bank has consistently maintained its key deposit rate at 2%. 2. Across the Atlantic, the November US jobs report was mixed: on the one hand, it showed that the labor market remained relatively resilient, but on the other hand, it also showed signs of slowing down, which may drag the dollar down, thus providing support for the EUR/USD pair. US non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, better than the market expectation of 50,000. At the same time, the US unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in October. 3. Observing the daily chart, the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) is gradually rising to 1.1601. The current exchange rate is stable above this moving average, maintaining a bullish bias. The Bollinger Band middle line (i.e., the 20-period moving average) has moved up to around 1.1639, providing shallow support for the exchange rate during pullbacks. Currently, the price is approaching the upper Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding, indicating that bullish pressure is solid against the backdrop of rising volatility. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 65, showing strong bullish momentum and has not yet entered the overbought zone. 4. The near-term resistance level is seen at the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1788, while the support level is set at the middle Bollinger Band at 1.1639 and the 100-day EMA at 1.1601. If the exchange rate can effectively break through the upper Bollinger Band resistance level, it is expected to continue its upward trend; conversely, if it fails to overcome this resistance, the exchange rate will continue to be constrained by the current resistance and may pull back to test the support level.
