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2025-12-17 15:16:45
Wells Fargo increases its expectation of a Fed rate cut in 2026. ⑴ October nonfarm payrolls fell by 105,000, mainly due to the end of the federal government's delayed resignation program; even excluding the federal sector, job growth was only 57,000. ⑵ November nonfarm payrolls increased by 64,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a new high since the end of the pandemic. ⑶ Wage growth slowed to an annualized rate of 3.5%, the lowest level since 2021. ⑷ If November and December CPI data, as well as the December jobs report, are lower than expected, the likelihood of a rate cut will increase. ⑸ The base case is two 25-basis-point rate cuts at the March and June FOMC meetings in the first half of 2026, with the possibility of further rate cuts.
