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2025-12-17 17:06:53
[ECB's Stance Remains Ambiguous, Rate Cut Expectations and a "Long Winter" for Interest Rates in 2026] ⑴ Bruno Cavalier, chief economist at Oddo BHF, points out that the ECB's GDP and inflation forecasts released at its Thursday meeting likely indicate that policy rates will remain unchanged next year. ⑵ He analyzes that even if the ECB no longer provides clear policy guidance, its staff's new forecasts could justify a "persistent status quo" for interest rates throughout 2026. ⑶ Cavalier believes that if the ECB needs to deviate from its current path in the future, the likelihood of it taking action by cutting interest rates is far greater than raising them.
