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2025-12-17 17:38:10
[Inflation Slows Down More Than Expected, Market May Underestimate Central Bank Easing in 2026] ⑴ Analysts point out that the faster-than-expected slowdown in inflation has paved the way for the central bank to increase easing in 2026. ⑵ The unexpected decline in November inflation was mainly due to falling prices for food and core commodities, which typically rise in November, reflecting that weak demand has eroded businesses' pricing power. ⑶ Analysts believe that if the downward trend in commodity prices continues in November, the inflation rate could fall below the central bank's 2.0% target next summer. ⑷ The market has already priced in a rate cut in December and expects another cut before mid-2026, but the possibility of a second rate cut in the first half of next year has now increased significantly. ⑸ This view emphasizes that investors may still be underestimating the overall easing力度 in 2026, and the room for future monetary policy easing may be greater than currently expected by the market.
