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2025-12-17 17:54:08
[Silver Frenzy: A Battle Between Structural Shortage, Short Squeeze, and the $70 Target] ⑴ Institutional analysts generally believe that the current silver price surge is driven by structural shortages and a surge in industrial demand. The construction of photovoltaic, electric vehicle, and AI infrastructure will significantly boost silver demand. ⑵ Insufficient supply elasticity is a key constraint. Increased silver production relies on increased output of its related metals, while global exchange inventories have fallen to near-decade lows, exacerbating the risk of spot shortages. ⑶ In terms of market dynamics, this round of price increases has been accompanied by severe short squeezes and speculative flows from Western investors entering silver ETFs, with holdings surging by 1,145 tons in one month. ⑷ Regarding the outlook, most institutions are bullish on silver's long-term fundamentals, but warn of high volatility in the short term. The gold-silver ratio is already oversold, falling to a new low since 2021, but if it further falls to 40, it means that silver prices still have significant upside potential. (5) There is a divergence in the price targets given by institutions. Some see $70, while a more optimistic view is that the price will be in the $75-$80 range. However, some analysts believe that the shortage will have peaked in 2025 and silver may underperform gold next year.
