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2025-12-17 21:03:48
[With the ECB meeting approaching, hawkish comments could put pressure on the euro if rejected] ⑴ Some analysts point out that if the ECB opposes Governing Council member Schnabel's recent comments at Thursday's meeting that "the next step might be an interest rate hike," the euro exchange rate may fall. ⑵ Schnabel's comments have already caused a strong reaction in the exchange rate and interest rate markets. If it is proven to be only a minority view, the market's previous hawkish expectations will face revision. ⑶ Analysts believe that the triggers for a euro decline include: Schnabel's views being proven to be in the minority, and the Eurozone's economic growth forecast not being significantly revised upwards. ⑷ This indicates that the market is highly sensitive to the policy consensus within the ECB, and any signals showing a dovish tendency could weaken support for the euro. ⑸ Therefore, the policy statement, economic forecasts, and press conference wording at this meeting are crucial for confirming the interest rate path and the short-term trend of the euro.
