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2025-12-17 22:21:28
[Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.6% During Trump's Presidency, Risk of Losing Seats in Midterm Elections May Increase] US non-farm payroll data released Tuesday showed that the US unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November from 4% when President Trump took office. While this level of increase in unemployment is not a good sign, it is not uncommon historically. Statistics show that since 1953, six US presidents have experienced rising unemployment rates in the first ten months of their first term (Trump is actually in his second term, and his term is not consecutive). These include: Eisenhower (unemployment rate rose from 2.9% to 3.5%), Nixon (3.4% to 3.5%), Ford (5.5% to 8.8%), Reagan (7.5% to 8.3%), George W. Bush (4.2% to 5.5%), and Obama (7.8% to 9.9%). Ford's data is less comparable because he succeeded the resigning Nixon. Of the other five presidents, with the exception of George W. Bush, their parties all lost at least 12 House seats in the subsequent midterm elections. During Bush's presidency, influenced by the 9/11 attacks, the focus of the 2002 midterm elections was on national security rather than economic issues. Obama suffered the biggest setback (which he described as a "crushing defeat"), losing 63 seats in the 2010 midterm elections. It is noteworthy that in the first ten months of Trump's first term, the unemployment rate actually fell from 4.7% to 4.2%, yet the Democrats still won 41 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections. This suggests that there is no simple correlation between unemployment rates and election results.
