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2025-12-18 09:55:45
[Institutional Analysis: Indonesian Central Bank's Policy Rate May Be "Frozen" Until the End of 2026] 1. CIMB economists predict that the Indonesian central bank may maintain its current policy rate of 4.75% until the end of 2026. This move aims to prioritize maintaining the stability of the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate and assess the transmission effect of existing policies on the economy. 2. Analysis indicates that the window for interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 is narrowing, mainly due to the base effect of electricity price discounts and the impact of policy-driven economic growth, which may put slight upward pressure on the overall inflation rate. At the same time, the transmission of the policy rate to market lending rates is limited, and loan growth remains weak. These factors reinforce the central bank's stance of maintaining the current interest rate until the synergy between monetary and fiscal policies improves.
