Live Updates > Live Update Details
2025-12-18 16:43:37
[US Market Focuses on CPI Data; Market Reaction May Be Volatile Again] ⑴ The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released during the US session. The market expects the overall CPI year-on-year rate to be 3.1%, and the month-on-month rate to be 0.3%; the core CPI year-on-year rate is expected to be 3.0%, and the month-on-month rate to be 0.3%. ⑵ Due to data issues caused by the government shutdown in October, the market consensus is that this report may trigger a chaotic market reaction, similar to the recent non-farm payroll report. ⑶ Analysts believe the market is more likely to focus on how the data will affect the hawkish camp within the Federal Reserve. ⑷ The recent unemployment rate of 4.6% has exceeded the Fed's year-end forecast of 4.5%. Given the Fed's focus on the labor market, this is a strong signal supporting an earlier rate cut. ⑸ On the other hand, inflation data continues to be lower than the Fed's forecast, with its expectation for core personal consumption expenditures prices in 2025 at 3.0%. ⑹ Therefore, if today's CPI data meets or falls short of expectations, the market may tend to interpret it more dovishly. (7) The market might even believe that weaker data will positively influence hawkish committee members, making them more likely to support an earlier-than-expected rate cut. (8) Conversely, if the data is stronger than expected, it may dampen market sentiment in the short term, but the overall picture may not change significantly.
