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2025-12-18 17:10:07
[Steep Yield Curve: Dutch 2s/10s Spread Signals Abnormality] ⑴ After directional adjustment, the 2-year and 10-year portions of the Dutch government bond yield curve appear unusually steep. ⑵ According to a three-month regression analysis on constant yields to maturity, the 10-year Dutch government bond is valued 6.5 basis points lower than the beta-adjusted 2-year bond. ⑶ This deviation reaches 2.2 standard deviations, which is statistically significant, indicating that the current curve shape may contain trading opportunities or market pricing discrepancies. ⑷ Such extreme valuation differences usually indicate a sharp change in market expectations regarding the long-term economic outlook or monetary policy path, and are worth close monitoring by interest rate traders.
