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2025-12-18 17:24:13
[Interest Rate Cut Cycle Begins: Bank of England Decision, Market Bets on More Than One Easing Move] ⑴ According to institutional analysts, the Bank of England is likely to announce an interest rate cut in its decision on Thursday (20:00 Beijing time), and may cut rates four more times in 2026. ⑵ Analysts point out that recent weak inflation, labor market, and GDP data in the UK all indicate a weak economy, increasing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England in the coming months. ⑶ Specific forecasts show that the Monetary Policy Committee is expected to cut rates four more times next year, bringing the benchmark interest rate down to 2.75%, a level it assesses as broadly neutral. ⑷ However, current pricing in the money market is relatively conservative, with data showing that the market only expects one rate cut on Thursday and another in 2026. ⑸ This divergence between the central bank's forward guidance and market pricing means that any unexpectedly dovish comments or downward revisions to economic forecasts could trigger sharp fluctuations in the pound and UK government bond yields.
