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2025-12-18 18:06:21
[Oil Price Winter Warning: Institutions Predict a Drop to $60, US Shale Oil Production Faces Shrinkage] ⑴ An institutional analysis indicates that if the average WTI crude oil price in 2026 reaches its predicted $57 per barrel, US shale oil production may decline by 70,000 barrels per day year-on-year, a decrease of approximately 1%. ⑵ The institution maintains a bearish view on oil prices in 2026, predicting that Brent crude oil will trade below $60 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, with an annual average price of approximately $60 per barrel, significantly lower than this year's average of nearly $69. ⑶ The report further warns that multiple downside risks may work together to push crude oil prices and US shale oil production to even lower levels. ⑷ This forecast implies that in a relatively depressed oil price environment, capital expenditure and the willingness of US shale oil producers to increase production will be significantly suppressed, potentially altering the marginal trajectory of the global crude oil supply pattern.
