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2025-12-18 19:01:09
[European Grain Production Outlook: Wheat and Barley Production Expected to Decrease, Import Dependence May Increase] ⑴ A consulting firm predicts that EU soft wheat production in 2026/27 may reach 128.3 million tons, a 6.2% decrease from 136.8 million tons in 2025/26. ⑵ The firm notes that the unusually high yields in many countries in 2025 are unlikely to be replicated in 2026, with production expected to be significantly lower than this year, returning to levels closer to the average. ⑶ For barley, production in 2026/27 is projected at 52.1 million tons, an 8.3% decrease from this year, mainly due to lower yields, although the winter barley planting area is estimated to have increased by 300,000 hectares compared to the 2025 harvest season, reaching its highest level since 2009. ⑷ Corn production is expected to increase from 56.6 million tons this year to 58.5 million tons, but will still be below average. ⑸ The firm expects soft wheat exports to increase moderately next year, but barley exports to decline slightly. (6) Given that European maize production is likely to be low again in 2026, maize imports are expected to increase. If there is a general crop failure, the smaller expected planted area in 2026 could lead to record high EU maize imports in 2026/27.
