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2025-12-18 21:40:19
[Initial Jobless Claims Decline, Job Market Remains Stable Amid Tariffs and Seasonal Fluctuations] ⑴ Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell by 13,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 224,000, slightly better than the market expectation of 225,000, reversing the surge of the previous week. ⑵ Recent data fluctuations mainly reflect the challenges of data adjustment around the Thanksgiving holiday, but the overall tone of the labor market has not changed significantly; employers are neither willing to significantly increase hiring nor engage in large-scale layoffs. ⑶ Economists point out that Trump's tariff rhetoric had an unexpected impact on businesses, causing them to slow down the pace of increasing headcount. ⑷ A survey of 548 chief financial officers shows that tariffs remain one of the biggest concerns for businesses. ⑸ Although the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021, this data was distorted by technical factors due to the previous 43-day government shutdown. (6) The number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits increased by 67,000 to 1.897 million in the week ending December 6, indicating that some unemployed people are experiencing longer job search periods. (7) Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, but hinted that they would pause further rate cuts until the direction of the labor market and inflation becomes clearer. (8) Overall, the labor market has shown resilience in the face of seasonal fluctuations and external policy shocks, but its potential strength and sustainability still require more data to verify.
