January 7th Financial Breakfast: Driven by safe-haven demand, gold prices once again approach the $4,500 mark; oil prices weigh supply and geopolitical influences.
2026-01-07 07:23:53

Key Focus Today

stock market
U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a record closing high. Chip stocks surged on optimism surrounding artificial intelligence. Pharmaceutical company Moderna jumped nearly 11% after Bank of America Global Research raised its price target, contributing to a 1.96% increase in the S&P 500 Healthcare Index.
Storage and memory technology stocks performed strongly. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang detailed upcoming AI processors at CES, including new storage technology, driving SanDisk up over 27%, Western Digital up 17%, Seagate Technology up 14%, and Micron Technology up 10%, all four hitting record highs. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 2.75%, also a record high, with a year-to-date gain of approximately 8%.
As the impact of the record 43-day federal government shutdown gradually subsides, markets are anticipating economic data, including employment figures, to be released this week. The S&P 500 closed up 0.62%, the Nasdaq rose 0.65%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.99% to 49,462.08 points, nearing the 50,000 mark.
The market also digested comments from Richmond Fed President Barkin, who expressed caution about further interest rate cuts, and downplayed concerns that the US military's capture of Venezuelan President Maduro could trigger broader geopolitical repercussions. Energy stocks retreated after rising the previous day, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron falling 3.4% and 4.5%, respectively. AIG plunged 7.5% after announcing its CEO's resignation.
Gold Market
Gold prices extended gains on Tuesday as escalating geopolitical tensions boosted safe-haven demand, while markets focused on upcoming U.S. jobs data to gauge the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Spot gold was at $4,485.39 an ounce, up 0.8%, further approaching the record high of $4,549.71 set on December 24 last year; U.S. gold futures for February delivery closed 1% higher at $4,496.10.

The U.S. weekend arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who denied drug charges on Monday, has escalated global tensions. "Precious metals traders are currently seeing more risk than stock and bond traders," noted Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. He said the event continues to fuel safe-haven demand for gold and silver.
Investors are also awaiting Friday's U.S. monthly jobs report, with the market expecting 60,000 new jobs added in December, slightly lower than the 64,000 added in the previous month. Traders anticipate two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, while Richmond Federal Reserve President Barkin said monetary policy needs "fine-tuning" to balance the risks of unemployment and inflation.
Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices could surge to $4,800 by the fourth quarter of this year, citing factors including lower interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and strong buying by central banks and funds. Spot silver rose 5.4% to $80.68 per ounce, while platinum and palladium also rose 7.2% and 5.9%, respectively. Gold is projected to rise 64.4% by 2025, marking its best annual performance since 1979, while silver is expected to surge 147% for the year due to a surge in industrial and investment demand.
oil market
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as markets weighed between expectations of ample global supply in 2026 and uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan oil production following the arrest of leader Nicolás Maduro. Brent crude futures fell 1.7% to settle at $60.70 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures fell 2% to $57.13 a barrel.

PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga pointed out that it is too early to assess the impact of Maduro's arrest on the oil supply and demand balance, but oil supply is expected to remain ample in 2026 regardless of whether this OPEC member increases production. Morgan Stanley analysts stated in a report that global oil demand grew by approximately 900,000 barrels per day last year, below the historical trend of 1.2 million barrels per day, while OPEC and non-OPEC supply are projected to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day and approximately 2.4 million barrels per day respectively during the fourth quarter of 2024 and the fourth quarter of 2025, potentially leading to a surplus of up to 3 million barrels per day in the first half of 2026.
The US arrest of Maduro on Saturday could accelerate the end of the oil embargo on Venezuela, potentially boosting production and further exacerbating price pressures. Markets are closely watching the future of Venezuelan oil supplies, with US President Trump declaring that US oil companies are ready to invest in the country to increase production and exports. Three sources revealed that US oil company executives are expected to travel to the White House as early as Thursday to discuss related investment plans.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar rose against major currencies on Tuesday, but the gains were relatively modest as markets focused on upcoming economic data to gauge the outlook for U.S. monetary policy. The euro fell after weaker-than-expected European inflation data.

Market reaction to the US arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro over the weekend was relatively brief, especially in the foreign exchange market. Amo Sahota, head of Klarity FX, noted that the market viewed it as an "isolated event," with no significant risk aversion.
The dollar rose 0.49% against the Swiss franc to 0.795 and 0.14% against the yen to 156.6 yen. Sahota said the market is gradually transitioning from the data vacuum before and after the holidays, and investors are looking forward to this week's employment-related data (including the ADP report, job openings, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls report) to get a sense of the true state of the US labor market.
Federal Reserve officials are divided on the path of interest rates. Richmond Federal Reserve President Barkin stated that interest rate adjustments need to be "fine-tuned" based on data; outgoing Fed Governor Milan called for a significant rate cut this year; while Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Kashkari warned of a possible "sudden" rise in the unemployment rate. Currently, the federal funds rate futures market projects an approximately 82% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting.
The euro fell 0.26% to $1.169 after data showed German and French inflation slowed more than expected in December, pushing eurozone bond yields down by about 3 basis points, while a slight rise in US Treasury yields pressured the euro. Markets expect the European Central Bank to keep interest rates stable this year.
The pound fell 0.27% to $1.3504, after earlier hitting a near four-month high. The Australian dollar rose 0.36% to $0.6737, reaching a more than one-year high during the session; the currency is sensitive to global risk sentiment and often moves in tandem with stock markets. The dollar index rose 0.19% to 98.57.
International News
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March is 47.2%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 18.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 81.7%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 40.7%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 52.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 6.5%.
Many parts of Europe are experiencing the strongest cold wave in a decade, and France has activated emergency power supplies in response.
Driven by strong northerly winds from the Atlantic and Arctic high-pressure systems, temperatures in northern and central Europe plummeted from Monday to early Tuesday, with many areas breaking low-temperature records. According to the UK Met Office, Mahom in southeast England recorded a low of -12.5°C; Mutt in eastern France and Obersdorf in Bavaria, Germany, both recorded -22°C. The French meteorological service stated that this cold wave is the coldest the country has experienced since 2012, significantly increasing heating demand across Europe. On Monday, French electricity demand hit a five-year high, forcing the power grid to increase gas-fired power generation to ensure supply. Currently, 26 departments in northwestern France remain under orange alert for rain, snow, and freezing conditions, with snow accumulation reaching 30 centimeters in the Charente-Maritime department. Meteorologists predict another round of snowfall on Wednesday.
The EU plans to significantly increase tariffs on steel imports, prompting downstream industry associations to issue a joint warning of "over-protection."
The European Commission's proposed trade protection measures to safeguard its domestic steel industry are sparking strong concerns and opposition from downstream sectors. Ten industry associations, including the European Automobile Manufacturers Association and the Metal Packaging Association, issued a joint statement on Tuesday warning that the EU's plan to significantly increase tariffs on imported steel and cut duty-free quotas could severely damage the competitiveness of EU exporters. The statement points out that the proposal to impose tariffs of up to 50% on steel imports exceeding quotas and to cut duty-free imports by nearly half is an "over-fenced" approach to the European market, which will not only impose billions of euros in additional tariff costs on related industries but also significantly increase the administrative burden. These industries believe that measures to protect the steel industry should not come at the expense of broader economic interests.
The US Democratic Party launched its affordable housing campaign in an election year.
Senate Democrats will officially launch a campaign this Wednesday focused on lowering housing costs, as the average age of first-time homebuyers has reached a record high. Democrats see housing affordability as a major weakness for the Republican Party in this year's midterm elections. Following the victories of Democratic candidates who focused on housing in last November's elections, Trump is eager to address this issue. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Massachusetts Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren will host a roundtable on Capitol Hill this Wednesday, with attendees including senators and representatives from relevant agencies committed to addressing housing affordability. They also plan to release a report on Trump's housing policies that day, directly criticizing the president for "failing to deliver on his promises and utterly failing" in lowering housing costs. Schumer made it clear to his Democratic colleagues that he hopes this year's focus on housing costs will pave the way for the Democrats to regain a Senate majority.
Chevron mobilized 11 oil tankers, and Venezuela's "shadow fleet" gradually disappeared.
With US President Donald Trump ordering the military to forcibly abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Chevron has become the sole exporter of Venezuelan oil. Currently, a small fleet of ships booked by the company is en route to Venezuela. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, at least 11 ships chartered by the US oil giant were scheduled to arrive in January at the Venezuelan-controlled ports of Jose and Bajo Grande. Amid the heavy US military deployment in the Caribbean, at least 12 ships originally bound for Venezuela have been forced to turn back, while Chevron continues loading oil.
Goldman Sachs warns: US power grid will face power shortages by 2030
Goldman Sachs analysts say that with surging demand from data centers, almost all U.S. power grids will lack critical reserve capacity by 2030. Power grids typically set a reserve margin target of at least 15%—the difference between peak demand and the available power generation from coal, natural gas, nuclear, and renewable energy plants. Carly Davenport, head of U.S. power and utilities equity research at Goldman Sachs, points out that rising utility bills could be a key issue in the gubernatorial elections later this year in 36 states.
The U.S. Supreme Court has set Friday as the day to release its opinion, which may determine whether Trump's tariffs are legal.
The U.S. Supreme Court has designated Friday as its opinion release day, meaning it could rule on the legality of President Trump's global tariff policies that day. The Supreme Court never announces in advance which decisions are ready for release, only stating that cases where arguments have been heard by the justices at 10:00 AM Washington time are likely to have their decisions released. Given that the tariff cases have already entered expedited processing, a decision is likely to be released on Friday.
Domestic News
The total dividend payout of A-share listed companies in 2025 exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, setting a new record.
According to data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and Beijing Stock Exchange, A-share listed companies distributed over 2.6 trillion yuan in dividends in 2025, setting a new historical record. Frequent dividend payouts have become the norm, with over 500 companies issuing interim dividends. Experts say this reflects the improved operational stability and financial forecasting capabilities of listed companies, further enhancing the attractiveness of the A-share market to global long-term capital. In terms of dividend scale, the banking, oil and petrochemical, and consumer sectors are the largest payers. Furthermore, technology companies actively distributed dividends, demonstrating a steady improvement in corporate profitability. (CCTV Finance)
National Data Administration: my country will launch more than 30 national standards in the data field by 2026.
Today, it was learned from the National Data Administration that my country will launch more than 30 national standards in the data field in 2026, accelerating the development of standards in emerging fields. In 2026, my country will deploy a batch of data standards in cutting-edge areas such as intelligent agents and embodied intelligence; simultaneously, it will accelerate the issuance of urgently needed standards in areas such as public data, high-quality datasets, and data infrastructure; and accelerate the development of key standards in areas such as urban digital transformation and a nationwide integrated computing network; in addition, it will accelerate the establishment of important data identification catalogs for industries such as industry, telecommunications, seed industry, aerospace, geographic information, and civil aviation. A relevant official from the National Data Standardization Technical Committee stated that, leveraging its massive data and huge market application scale, my country remains firmly in the top tier globally in both the development and application depth of data standards. In 2025, my country developed 48 national standards and technical documents in the data field, of which more than one-third underwent verification pilots during the development process. (CCTV News)
In 2025, China's space station will launch 31 new on-orbit scientific and application projects.
The Space Application Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences announced that the 2025 China Space Station space science, application experiments, and technology test projects are progressing smoothly. Scientific facilities covering multiple fields, including life sciences, microgravity physics, and new space technologies and applications, have been established, providing crucial support for the implementation of core scientific missions. In 2025, the space application system will implement 31 new on-orbit scientific and application projects, carrying approximately 867.5 kg of scientific materials, including uplink experimental modules, units, and samples, and 83.92 kg of downlink space science experiment samples. Over 150TB of scientific data has been acquired, and scientific teams in various fields have produced a series of original, cutting-edge, and innovative advances and results, with over 50 patents granted. (CCTV News)
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