From Iraq to Venezuela, the logic of "win the war, take the oil" is playing out once again.
2026-01-07 15:54:59
In 2003, the United States invaded Iraq under the pretext of "weapons of mass destruction," and after overthrowing Saddam Hussein's regime, it quickly took the lead in rebuilding Iraq's Ministry of Oil. Through regulatory policies and contracts, it ensured that the flow of Iraq's post-war oil resources aligned with Western interests.
US President Trump recently followed suit, making a series of statements and taking actions that not only stirred up the political situation in Venezuela but also sparked widespread discussion in the global energy market about the investment prospects of the South American oil industry.
Meanwhile, according to US media statistics, Trump used force in seven countries, including Venezuela and Yemen, in less than a year of his first term, a number equal to the total number used by Obama during his eight years in office. Even more outrageous, since his second term began, the US military has conducted over 620 airstrikes abroad, far surpassing Biden's 555 airstrikes during his four-year term.
Early Saturday morning, U.S. special forces raided the private residence of Maduro and his wife Celia Flores, successfully capturing them in a firefight with Cuban guards and extraditing them to New York for trial.
The operation resulted in significant casualties: Venezuelan officials reported at least 24 security personnel killed, while Attorney General Tareck William Saah confirmed that the raid killed "dozens" of security personnel and civilians. The Cuban government confirmed that 32 military and police personnel stationed in Venezuela were killed. Seven U.S. soldiers were also wounded, two of whom are still receiving treatment.
Maduro faces multiple charges, including conspiracy, cocaine smuggling conspiracy, and weapons offenses. He pleaded not guilty in a U.S. federal court on Monday. These charges date back to 2020, and the U.S. government has increased the bounty on his head to $50 million, double the amount during the Biden administration.
Dramatic political changes unfolded simultaneously, with Trump announcing that the United States would take over Venezuela under "takeover" measures until a stable leadership was established.
On the same day, Venezuela's Supreme Court appointed Delcy Rodriguez, who is in charge of overseeing the state-owned oil company (PDVSA), as interim president.
In response to Trump's threat that "failure to comply will result in a worse outcome," Rodriguez responded firmly: "My fate is not in the hands of others, but in the hands of God," demonstrating a confrontational stance against the United States.
Meanwhile, support rallies reappeared in the streets of Caracas, with people waving national flags to express their patriotism. The Venezuelan military released a video commemorating the victims and vowed to "rescue the legitimate president, eliminate foreign forces, and defend national sovereignty." The uncertainty surrounding the political situation continues to escalate.
Energy cooperation has become one of the core issues in this changing situation. On Tuesday, Trump announced that Venezuela would supply the United States with 30 to 50 million barrels of oil. Based on the current spot price of crude oil at $56 per barrel, this deal could be worth up to $2.8 billion, but it would only fill the United States' energy gap for two and a half days (the United States consumes about 20 million barrels of oil and related products per day).
As of press time, the Venezuelan government has not commented on this matter.
Trump further emphasized that he would push for US oil giants such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips to enter Venezuela, invest billions of dollars to repair the dilapidated oil infrastructure, and lead the country's oil industry reconstruction.
The White House has spearheaded preparations for a closed-door meeting this Friday, with representatives from the three major oil companies confirmed to attend. The core topic will be the opening up and investment in Venezuela's oil market.
Historically, the United States and Venezuela have a long history of oil cooperation.
Foreign oil companies have been operating in Venezuela for over a century. Venezuela’s geographical proximity and the characteristics of its crude oil have made it a “technology match” partner for the U.S. refining industry. The U.S. refining infrastructure is essentially built around Venezuela’s crude oil processing needs.
However, the nationalization policy implemented by Chavez after taking office in 1999 brought PDVSA under government control, leading to the withdrawal of foreign capital and the abandonment of facilities. Trump bluntly stated that this was "the Venezuelan regime's encroachment on American investment assets." Today, Chevron is the only American oil company still operating in Venezuela, and with its century-old accumulated technological reserves, local resources, and policy adaptability, it has gained an irreplaceable competitive advantage.
Michael Claire, a researcher at the American Arms Association, analyzed that Chevron's production capacity layout and supply chain network constitute high barriers to entry, and it will take new entrants several years to replicate its operational capabilities. In the short term, the recovery of Venezuela's oil production capacity is highly dependent on Chevron.
Following Saturday's events, a Chevron spokesperson reiterated that the company would "fully comply with the laws and regulations of both the United States and Venezuela." This cautious statement maintained business continuity while also leaving room for future policy changes.
This situation also involves multiple geopolitical and domestic political issues. ExxonMobil's giant oil field development off the coast of Guyana has intensified the century-old territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. Venezuela had previously considered legislation to ban related companies from entering its market.
Domestically in the United States, public opinion on the arrest of Maduro is divided, with 40% supporting it, 40% opposing it, and 20% undecided. The two parties also disagree on the assessment of the military operation—Trump complained that Democrats were unwilling to acknowledge the success of the operation, even though both sides agreed that "Maduro is not a legitimate president."
In addition, the Trump administration’s recent series of expansionist diplomatic statements, such as calling for the takeover of Greenland, threatening military action against Colombia, and declaring that the Cuban government is “about to suffer a setback,” have also raised concerns in the international community about a shift in the United States’ diplomatic strategy in the Western Hemisphere.
Meanwhile, the chain reaction triggered by Maduro's arrest may quickly spread to Cuba, posing a devastating blow to the island nation, which has been mired in economic crisis for many years, and its economic fundamentals may face further collapse.
Following the dramatic move to oust Maduro, Trump publicly stated that the Cuban government was highly likely to fall. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham subsequently reiterated this position, sparking expectations of a linkage between Latin American geopolitics and energy markets.
Since Hugo Chávez came to power in Venezuela in 1999, Cuba and Venezuela have formed a deep energy-services exchange cooperation: Cuba is heavily reliant on subsidized oil prices provided by Venezuela to support its domestic energy system, and in exchange, Cuba provides Venezuela with core resources such as medical professional teams, military advisors, and security forces.
From an economic perspective, if Cuba loses its oil supply from Venezuela, its already deeply depressed economy is likely to fall into a spiral of accelerated deterioration in key indicators such as inflation, foreign exchange reserves, and people's livelihood.
In Cuba, while ordinary people have long adapted to the harsh economic environment, most are preparing for even worse living conditions in the face of the potential impact of the United States’ actions in Venezuela.
Looking back at history, the island nation and its government survived during the "special period" triggered by the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s—when the interruption of external aid led to a sharp contraction of Cuba's economy by about 30%, creating an extreme case of economic recession in modern Latin America.
“The current situation will lead to serious difficulties,” Butcher Ray Rodriguez said frankly. “It is foreseeable that there will be further shortages of oil supply, a surge in the frequency of power outages, and a continued decline in the economic expectations of young people, which may further affect domestic consumption and the stability of the labor market.”
Venezuela's future is shrouded in multiple uncertainties: whether the political crisis can be quelled, whether the oil industry can recover with the help of foreign investment, and how geopolitical competition will affect the global energy market landscape.
Will geopolitical issues spill over to other regions, such as Greenland in Denmark, and trigger greater market risk aversion?
The answers to these questions depend not only on the evolution of the situation within Venezuela, but also on the profound influence of US policy direction and international capital decisions.
For the global energy market and foreign exchange financial sector, every move Venezuela makes could trigger a chain reaction, becoming a key variable affecting asset valuations and investment decisions.
US President Trump recently followed suit, making a series of statements and taking actions that not only stirred up the political situation in Venezuela but also sparked widespread discussion in the global energy market about the investment prospects of the South American oil industry.
Meanwhile, according to US media statistics, Trump used force in seven countries, including Venezuela and Yemen, in less than a year of his first term, a number equal to the total number used by Obama during his eight years in office. Even more outrageous, since his second term began, the US military has conducted over 620 airstrikes abroad, far surpassing Biden's 555 airstrikes during his four-year term.
Cross-border raid: Maduro arrested and multiple casualties
Early Saturday morning, U.S. special forces raided the private residence of Maduro and his wife Celia Flores, successfully capturing them in a firefight with Cuban guards and extraditing them to New York for trial.
The operation resulted in significant casualties: Venezuelan officials reported at least 24 security personnel killed, while Attorney General Tareck William Saah confirmed that the raid killed "dozens" of security personnel and civilians. The Cuban government confirmed that 32 military and police personnel stationed in Venezuela were killed. Seven U.S. soldiers were also wounded, two of whom are still receiving treatment.
Maduro faces multiple charges, including conspiracy, cocaine smuggling conspiracy, and weapons offenses. He pleaded not guilty in a U.S. federal court on Monday. These charges date back to 2020, and the U.S. government has increased the bounty on his head to $50 million, double the amount during the Biden administration.
Political Turmoil: Provisional Government Emerges and Confrontation Escalates
Dramatic political changes unfolded simultaneously, with Trump announcing that the United States would take over Venezuela under "takeover" measures until a stable leadership was established.
On the same day, Venezuela's Supreme Court appointed Delcy Rodriguez, who is in charge of overseeing the state-owned oil company (PDVSA), as interim president.
In response to Trump's threat that "failure to comply will result in a worse outcome," Rodriguez responded firmly: "My fate is not in the hands of others, but in the hands of God," demonstrating a confrontational stance against the United States.
Meanwhile, support rallies reappeared in the streets of Caracas, with people waving national flags to express their patriotism. The Venezuelan military released a video commemorating the victims and vowed to "rescue the legitimate president, eliminate foreign forces, and defend national sovereignty." The uncertainty surrounding the political situation continues to escalate.
The core demands of the US-Venezuela crisis: US-Venezuela oil trade and industrial reconstruction plan.
Energy cooperation has become one of the core issues in this changing situation. On Tuesday, Trump announced that Venezuela would supply the United States with 30 to 50 million barrels of oil. Based on the current spot price of crude oil at $56 per barrel, this deal could be worth up to $2.8 billion, but it would only fill the United States' energy gap for two and a half days (the United States consumes about 20 million barrels of oil and related products per day).
As of press time, the Venezuelan government has not commented on this matter.
Trump further emphasized that he would push for US oil giants such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips to enter Venezuela, invest billions of dollars to repair the dilapidated oil infrastructure, and lead the country's oil industry reconstruction.
The White House has spearheaded preparations for a closed-door meeting this Friday, with representatives from the three major oil companies confirmed to attend. The core topic will be the opening up and investment in Venezuela's oil market.
Historical Entanglement: The Rise and Fall of US-Venezuela Oil Cooperation and Chevron's Unique Position
Historically, the United States and Venezuela have a long history of oil cooperation.
Foreign oil companies have been operating in Venezuela for over a century. Venezuela’s geographical proximity and the characteristics of its crude oil have made it a “technology match” partner for the U.S. refining industry. The U.S. refining infrastructure is essentially built around Venezuela’s crude oil processing needs.
However, the nationalization policy implemented by Chavez after taking office in 1999 brought PDVSA under government control, leading to the withdrawal of foreign capital and the abandonment of facilities. Trump bluntly stated that this was "the Venezuelan regime's encroachment on American investment assets." Today, Chevron is the only American oil company still operating in Venezuela, and with its century-old accumulated technological reserves, local resources, and policy adaptability, it has gained an irreplaceable competitive advantage.
Michael Claire, a researcher at the American Arms Association, analyzed that Chevron's production capacity layout and supply chain network constitute high barriers to entry, and it will take new entrants several years to replicate its operational capabilities. In the short term, the recovery of Venezuela's oil production capacity is highly dependent on Chevron.
Following Saturday's events, a Chevron spokesperson reiterated that the company would "fully comply with the laws and regulations of both the United States and Venezuela." This cautious statement maintained business continuity while also leaving room for future policy changes.
Chain Reaction: Geopolitical Disputes and Domestic and International Controversies
This situation also involves multiple geopolitical and domestic political issues. ExxonMobil's giant oil field development off the coast of Guyana has intensified the century-old territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. Venezuela had previously considered legislation to ban related companies from entering its market.
Domestically in the United States, public opinion on the arrest of Maduro is divided, with 40% supporting it, 40% opposing it, and 20% undecided. The two parties also disagree on the assessment of the military operation—Trump complained that Democrats were unwilling to acknowledge the success of the operation, even though both sides agreed that "Maduro is not a legitimate president."
In addition, the Trump administration’s recent series of expansionist diplomatic statements, such as calling for the takeover of Greenland, threatening military action against Colombia, and declaring that the Cuban government is “about to suffer a setback,” have also raised concerns in the international community about a shift in the United States’ diplomatic strategy in the Western Hemisphere.
Meanwhile, the chain reaction triggered by Maduro's arrest may quickly spread to Cuba, posing a devastating blow to the island nation, which has been mired in economic crisis for many years, and its economic fundamentals may face further collapse.
Following the dramatic move to oust Maduro, Trump publicly stated that the Cuban government was highly likely to fall. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham subsequently reiterated this position, sparking expectations of a linkage between Latin American geopolitics and energy markets.
Since Hugo Chávez came to power in Venezuela in 1999, Cuba and Venezuela have formed a deep energy-services exchange cooperation: Cuba is heavily reliant on subsidized oil prices provided by Venezuela to support its domestic energy system, and in exchange, Cuba provides Venezuela with core resources such as medical professional teams, military advisors, and security forces.
From an economic perspective, if Cuba loses its oil supply from Venezuela, its already deeply depressed economy is likely to fall into a spiral of accelerated deterioration in key indicators such as inflation, foreign exchange reserves, and people's livelihood.
In Cuba, while ordinary people have long adapted to the harsh economic environment, most are preparing for even worse living conditions in the face of the potential impact of the United States’ actions in Venezuela.
Looking back at history, the island nation and its government survived during the "special period" triggered by the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s—when the interruption of external aid led to a sharp contraction of Cuba's economy by about 30%, creating an extreme case of economic recession in modern Latin America.
“The current situation will lead to serious difficulties,” Butcher Ray Rodriguez said frankly. “It is foreseeable that there will be further shortages of oil supply, a surge in the frequency of power outages, and a continued decline in the economic expectations of young people, which may further affect domestic consumption and the stability of the labor market.”
The Fog of the Future: The Future of the Situation Under Multiple Variables
Venezuela's future is shrouded in multiple uncertainties: whether the political crisis can be quelled, whether the oil industry can recover with the help of foreign investment, and how geopolitical competition will affect the global energy market landscape.
Will geopolitical issues spill over to other regions, such as Greenland in Denmark, and trigger greater market risk aversion?
The answers to these questions depend not only on the evolution of the situation within Venezuela, but also on the profound influence of US policy direction and international capital decisions.
For the global energy market and foreign exchange financial sector, every move Venezuela makes could trigger a chain reaction, becoming a key variable affecting asset valuations and investment decisions.
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