January 12th Financial Breakfast: Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah underground facilities in Lebanon; gold prices hold firm at $4530; supply concerns boost oil prices.
2026-01-12 07:25:55
On Monday (January 12, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,530.72 per ounce. Gold prices were boosted by weaker-than-expected US employment data and broad policy and geopolitical uncertainties, including Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah underground facilities in Lebanon, which increased geopolitical uncertainty risks. US crude oil was trading around $59.60 per barrel, with the market concerned that social unrest in Iran could disrupt its oil production.
The S&P 500 hit a record closing high on Friday, boosted by gains in chipmakers such as Broadcom. Data showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased less than expected in December, but this did not significantly alter market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year.
Last week, all three major stock indexes rose sharply, with sectors such as materials and industrials, which had previously lagged behind technology stocks, performing strongly. Chip stocks generally rose, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbing 2.7% to a record high. In terms of individual stocks, Lam Research rose 8.7%, Broadcom rose 3.8%, and Intel rose nearly 11%. Vistra surged 10.5% due to its nuclear power agreement with Meta.
In addition, the mortgage lending sector strengthened, with significant gains in the stock prices of companies such as LoanDepot and Rocket Companies. General Motors shares fell more than 2% due to provisions for electric vehicle investment-related expenses.
At the close, the S&P 500 rose 0.65%, the Nasdaq rose 0.82%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48%. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 22, still higher than its historical average.
Gold prices rose on Friday, marking a weekly gain, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data and broad policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for December showed weaker-than-expected growth, further solidifying market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this month. However, TD Securities believes the Fed will cut rates at least twice this year. Continued geopolitical tensions, including unrest in Iran, the Russia-Ukraine war, and uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, have all provided upward momentum for gold prices.
Research firm Metals Focus predicts that gold prices could rise to a new high of over $5,000 per ounce in 2026 due to de-dollarization trends and geopolitical risks. Spot silver, platinum, and palladium prices have also risen. Furthermore, Bank of America has raised its forecast for the average price of platinum and palladium in 2026.
Oil prices rose about 2% on Friday, mainly due to escalating protests in Iran and supply concerns stemming from the escalating war between Russia and Ukraine.
Both Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose for the second consecutive day. Market concerns that social unrest in Iran could disrupt its oil production, coupled with Russia's hypersonic missile attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, exacerbated geopolitical risks and pushed up oil prices.
However, analysts point out that global oil inventories are increasing, and the oversupply fundamentals may limit further price increases. Unless the situation in Iran deteriorates significantly, the current upward trend may be limited in its sustainability.
In addition, the market is focused on the outcome of a meeting between the White House and oil companies regarding Venezuelan oil exports. Recent actions by the US government to control Venezuelan oil sales could have implications for the global supply landscape.
The dollar strengthened on Friday, primarily due to weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payroll data for December, further reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this month. The data showed that while the unemployment rate declined slightly, job creation slowed, providing the Fed with room to maintain policy stability in the near term.
The dollar index rose for the second consecutive week. Meanwhile, the yen fell to a one-year low against the dollar amid market expectations of a possible early general election in Japan and uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's future interest rate path. The euro also fell for the second consecutive week against the dollar due to weak German export data.
The market is also focused on the US Supreme Court's ruling on President Trump's tariff policies, which is expected to be released this week. Overall, the non-farm payroll data did not significantly change market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, and exchange rate fluctuations were relatively limited.
Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah underground facilities in Lebanon
On the evening of the 11th local time, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it had conducted another airstrike on an underground weapons storage facility used by Hezbollah in Lebanon. The IDF stated that it had earlier that day struck a Hezbollah weapons storage shaft in southern Lebanon, and the additional operation targeted a previously attacked underground facility. The IDF stated that it had notified the Lebanese government forces of military activity at the location a week prior, but the relevant infrastructure had not been completely dismantled, hence the decision to take further action. (CCTV)
Probability of the Fed's January interest rate decision: 97.4% chance of no change.
According to the latest forecast from Polymarket, the probabilities of the Federal Reserve's January interest rate decision are as follows: 97.4% probability of no change, 2.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, <1% probability of a 50+ basis point rate cut, and <1% probability of a 25+ basis point rate hike. Polymarket predicts a 27% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2026, a 24% probability of a 75 basis point rate cut, a 16% probability of a 100 basis point rate cut, and an 11% probability of a 125 basis point rate cut.
Trump called for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, a move that hedge fund giant Ackman criticized as a "mistake."
US President Trump recently reiterated his call to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, starting January 20th. This promise is a continuation of his campaign platform, but details regarding the specific implementation plan and how to ensure businesses comply have not yet been released. While lawmakers from both parties have long expressed concern about high interest rates, some have criticized Trump for failing to deliver on his campaign promises. In response, renowned hedge fund manager Bill Ackman publicly expressed his opposition on social media. He believes that if the interest rate cap prevents card issuers from covering bad debt losses through pricing and providing reasonable returns to shareholders, it will force banks to close consumer credit card accounts on a large scale. Affected consumers may be forced to turn to informal channels such as loan sharks, only to face even higher effective interest rates and stricter borrowing conditions.
Trump leaked non-farm payroll data on social media ahead of time; White House initiates review of the release process.
White House officials confirmed on Friday that they are conducting an internal review of the economic data release process. This comes after President Trump posted a chart containing key employment data on Truth Social, which was not officially released by the Labor Department until hours later. The official stated that some of the data Trump released Thursday evening came from information he had obtained in advance. His post showed that "since January, the U.S. has added 654,000 private sector jobs and lost 181,000 government jobs"—figures consistent with the December jobs report released by the Labor Department on Friday. Typically, the U.S. president receives a briefing the day before the jobs report is publicly released. The White House characterized the incident as an "unintentional" leak, but has not yet specified the exact steps through which the information was leaked. The premature release of economic data can impact financial markets, and the White House stated it will review existing procedures to prevent similar incidents from recurring.
Gold reserves surpass US Treasury bonds, accelerating the de-dollarization of global assets.
Soaring gold prices and a depreciating dollar have led to a continuous decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves. In 2025, the dollar's credibility faces a serious challenge. Reporters also noted a clear trend of de-dollarization in global assets in 2025. As more countries increase their gold holdings, global central bank gold holdings will surpass US Treasury bonds for the first time in nearly 30 years. The surge in gold prices has increased the value of gold reserves when converted to dollars. By mid-2025, US Treasury bonds will account for less than 25% of central bank reserves (excluding the Federal Reserve), while gold will account for more than 25%. This is the first time since 1996 that gold has surpassed US Treasury bonds in the reserves of central banks worldwide. Experts say that global capital's risk appetite for dollar assets is declining, and in the medium to long term, the downward trend in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves is difficult to reverse, leading to a more diversified international monetary system. (CCTV)
The Houthi rebels in Yemen warned Saudi Arabia
The Houthi rebels in Yemen issued a statement on the 11th, claiming that Saudi Arabia, through Alim al-Alimi, chairman of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, had signaled a "restart of the war." The Houthis warned that any Saudi military action would be met with a strong response. The statement emphasized that any military adventure against Yemen would be devastating and extremely costly. The Houthis stated that Saudi Arabia's only option at present is to fulfill its peace commitments, end its intervention in Yemeni affairs, and withdraw from Yemen. (CCTV International News)
my country will accelerate the establishment of a data property rights registration system.
On January 11, it was learned from the National Bureau of Data Science and Technology (NBS) that the NBS will further study and learn from the experiences and practices of registration systems in other fields, continuously absorb opinions and suggestions from all sectors of society, and innovate to establish a registration system adapted to the characteristics of data, so as to better promote the circulation and use of data and release the value of data elements. Recently, Liu Liehong, Director of the NBS, chaired a symposium on data property rights registration. It is understood that officials from the Beijing Internet Court and some local data management departments, as well as representatives from companies such as China Mobile, China Southern Power Grid, and the Beijing International Big Data Exchange, attended the meeting and offered opinions and suggestions focusing on improving the data property rights registration system. (Xinhua News Agency)
Memory module prices surged 300% in one year.
In a computer mall in Shanghai, 16GB RAM modules are the mainstream choice for computer assembly. A year ago, they cost over 300 yuan per module, but now the price has risen to over 1100 yuan, with other specifications of RAM also seeing price increases of 2 to 3 times. Data shows that global investment in AI data centers reached a record high last year. The surge in demand for high-end products impacted the market, causing prices of RAM modules of all specifications to rise. Industry insiders say that the upstream supply chain for memory is also experiencing shortages, and the supply capacity will not be resolved quickly in the short term, so the shortage may last until at least the second half of the year. (CCTV)
Key Focus Today
stock market
The S&P 500 hit a record closing high on Friday, boosted by gains in chipmakers such as Broadcom. Data showed that U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased less than expected in December, but this did not significantly alter market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year.
Last week, all three major stock indexes rose sharply, with sectors such as materials and industrials, which had previously lagged behind technology stocks, performing strongly. Chip stocks generally rose, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbing 2.7% to a record high. In terms of individual stocks, Lam Research rose 8.7%, Broadcom rose 3.8%, and Intel rose nearly 11%. Vistra surged 10.5% due to its nuclear power agreement with Meta.
In addition, the mortgage lending sector strengthened, with significant gains in the stock prices of companies such as LoanDepot and Rocket Companies. General Motors shares fell more than 2% due to provisions for electric vehicle investment-related expenses.
At the close, the S&P 500 rose 0.65%, the Nasdaq rose 0.82%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.48%. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 22, still higher than its historical average.
Gold Market
Gold prices rose on Friday, marking a weekly gain, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data and broad policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for December showed weaker-than-expected growth, further solidifying market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this month. However, TD Securities believes the Fed will cut rates at least twice this year. Continued geopolitical tensions, including unrest in Iran, the Russia-Ukraine war, and uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, have all provided upward momentum for gold prices.
Research firm Metals Focus predicts that gold prices could rise to a new high of over $5,000 per ounce in 2026 due to de-dollarization trends and geopolitical risks. Spot silver, platinum, and palladium prices have also risen. Furthermore, Bank of America has raised its forecast for the average price of platinum and palladium in 2026.
oil market
Oil prices rose about 2% on Friday, mainly due to escalating protests in Iran and supply concerns stemming from the escalating war between Russia and Ukraine.
Both Brent and WTI crude oil prices rose for the second consecutive day. Market concerns that social unrest in Iran could disrupt its oil production, coupled with Russia's hypersonic missile attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, exacerbated geopolitical risks and pushed up oil prices.
However, analysts point out that global oil inventories are increasing, and the oversupply fundamentals may limit further price increases. Unless the situation in Iran deteriorates significantly, the current upward trend may be limited in its sustainability.
In addition, the market is focused on the outcome of a meeting between the White House and oil companies regarding Venezuelan oil exports. Recent actions by the US government to control Venezuelan oil sales could have implications for the global supply landscape.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar strengthened on Friday, primarily due to weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payroll data for December, further reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this month. The data showed that while the unemployment rate declined slightly, job creation slowed, providing the Fed with room to maintain policy stability in the near term.
The dollar index rose for the second consecutive week. Meanwhile, the yen fell to a one-year low against the dollar amid market expectations of a possible early general election in Japan and uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's future interest rate path. The euro also fell for the second consecutive week against the dollar due to weak German export data.
The market is also focused on the US Supreme Court's ruling on President Trump's tariff policies, which is expected to be released this week. Overall, the non-farm payroll data did not significantly change market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, and exchange rate fluctuations were relatively limited.
International News
Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah underground facilities in Lebanon
On the evening of the 11th local time, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it had conducted another airstrike on an underground weapons storage facility used by Hezbollah in Lebanon. The IDF stated that it had earlier that day struck a Hezbollah weapons storage shaft in southern Lebanon, and the additional operation targeted a previously attacked underground facility. The IDF stated that it had notified the Lebanese government forces of military activity at the location a week prior, but the relevant infrastructure had not been completely dismantled, hence the decision to take further action. (CCTV)
Probability of the Fed's January interest rate decision: 97.4% chance of no change.
According to the latest forecast from Polymarket, the probabilities of the Federal Reserve's January interest rate decision are as follows: 97.4% probability of no change, 2.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, <1% probability of a 50+ basis point rate cut, and <1% probability of a 25+ basis point rate hike. Polymarket predicts a 27% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2026, a 24% probability of a 75 basis point rate cut, a 16% probability of a 100 basis point rate cut, and an 11% probability of a 125 basis point rate cut.
Trump called for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates, a move that hedge fund giant Ackman criticized as a "mistake."
US President Trump recently reiterated his call to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, starting January 20th. This promise is a continuation of his campaign platform, but details regarding the specific implementation plan and how to ensure businesses comply have not yet been released. While lawmakers from both parties have long expressed concern about high interest rates, some have criticized Trump for failing to deliver on his campaign promises. In response, renowned hedge fund manager Bill Ackman publicly expressed his opposition on social media. He believes that if the interest rate cap prevents card issuers from covering bad debt losses through pricing and providing reasonable returns to shareholders, it will force banks to close consumer credit card accounts on a large scale. Affected consumers may be forced to turn to informal channels such as loan sharks, only to face even higher effective interest rates and stricter borrowing conditions.
Trump leaked non-farm payroll data on social media ahead of time; White House initiates review of the release process.
White House officials confirmed on Friday that they are conducting an internal review of the economic data release process. This comes after President Trump posted a chart containing key employment data on Truth Social, which was not officially released by the Labor Department until hours later. The official stated that some of the data Trump released Thursday evening came from information he had obtained in advance. His post showed that "since January, the U.S. has added 654,000 private sector jobs and lost 181,000 government jobs"—figures consistent with the December jobs report released by the Labor Department on Friday. Typically, the U.S. president receives a briefing the day before the jobs report is publicly released. The White House characterized the incident as an "unintentional" leak, but has not yet specified the exact steps through which the information was leaked. The premature release of economic data can impact financial markets, and the White House stated it will review existing procedures to prevent similar incidents from recurring.
Gold reserves surpass US Treasury bonds, accelerating the de-dollarization of global assets.
Soaring gold prices and a depreciating dollar have led to a continuous decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves. In 2025, the dollar's credibility faces a serious challenge. Reporters also noted a clear trend of de-dollarization in global assets in 2025. As more countries increase their gold holdings, global central bank gold holdings will surpass US Treasury bonds for the first time in nearly 30 years. The surge in gold prices has increased the value of gold reserves when converted to dollars. By mid-2025, US Treasury bonds will account for less than 25% of central bank reserves (excluding the Federal Reserve), while gold will account for more than 25%. This is the first time since 1996 that gold has surpassed US Treasury bonds in the reserves of central banks worldwide. Experts say that global capital's risk appetite for dollar assets is declining, and in the medium to long term, the downward trend in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves is difficult to reverse, leading to a more diversified international monetary system. (CCTV)
The Houthi rebels in Yemen warned Saudi Arabia
The Houthi rebels in Yemen issued a statement on the 11th, claiming that Saudi Arabia, through Alim al-Alimi, chairman of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, had signaled a "restart of the war." The Houthis warned that any Saudi military action would be met with a strong response. The statement emphasized that any military adventure against Yemen would be devastating and extremely costly. The Houthis stated that Saudi Arabia's only option at present is to fulfill its peace commitments, end its intervention in Yemeni affairs, and withdraw from Yemen. (CCTV International News)
Domestic News
my country will accelerate the establishment of a data property rights registration system.
On January 11, it was learned from the National Bureau of Data Science and Technology (NBS) that the NBS will further study and learn from the experiences and practices of registration systems in other fields, continuously absorb opinions and suggestions from all sectors of society, and innovate to establish a registration system adapted to the characteristics of data, so as to better promote the circulation and use of data and release the value of data elements. Recently, Liu Liehong, Director of the NBS, chaired a symposium on data property rights registration. It is understood that officials from the Beijing Internet Court and some local data management departments, as well as representatives from companies such as China Mobile, China Southern Power Grid, and the Beijing International Big Data Exchange, attended the meeting and offered opinions and suggestions focusing on improving the data property rights registration system. (Xinhua News Agency)
Memory module prices surged 300% in one year.
In a computer mall in Shanghai, 16GB RAM modules are the mainstream choice for computer assembly. A year ago, they cost over 300 yuan per module, but now the price has risen to over 1100 yuan, with other specifications of RAM also seeing price increases of 2 to 3 times. Data shows that global investment in AI data centers reached a record high last year. The surge in demand for high-end products impacted the market, causing prices of RAM modules of all specifications to rise. Industry insiders say that the upstream supply chain for memory is also experiencing shortages, and the supply capacity will not be resolved quickly in the short term, so the shortage may last until at least the second half of the year. (CCTV)
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
