On Monday during Asian trading hours, gold prices (XAU/USD) rose to around $4,600, hitting a new all-time high. Amid escalating global uncertainty, safe-haven funds continued to flow into the gold market, while market expectations of a US interest rate cut this year also provided significant support for gold prices.

Geopolitical risks are a key driver of the recent gold price increase. US President Trump is weighing various potential military options against Iran following deadly protests within the country. This uncertainty has significantly increased risk aversion in the market, strengthening gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, European geopolitical security issues are also drawing market attention. Britain and Germany are discussing strengthening their military presence in Greenland to demonstrate their commitment to Arctic security.

Multiple geopolitical variables are intertwined, keeping risk aversion high in global markets. Expectations of Federal Reserve policy provide additional support: the latest mixed US employment data has further strengthened market bets on future Fed rate cuts.

Data shows that non-farm payrolls increased by only 50,000 in December, below market expectations; the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.4%. Slower job growth has led investors to believe there is room for further easing of monetary policy. In a low-interest-rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets decreases, which is generally beneficial to gold prices.

The market will now focus on the upcoming US CPI inflation data to determine whether a decline in inflation will create clearer conditions for an interest rate cut.

From a daily chart perspective, gold prices maintain a typical one-sided upward trend, with candlesticks continuously reaching new highs and the moving average system exhibiting a bullish divergence pattern, indicating that the medium- to long-term trend remains strong. Although momentum indicators are at high levels, there are no obvious signs of divergence, suggesting that the upward trend is likely to continue.

In the short term, $4,500 has become an important support level. Until macroeconomic and geopolitical risks ease significantly, gold prices will remain in a high-level trading range.


Editor's Note:

In summary, the record high gold price is not driven by a single factor, but rather by a confluence of geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations. Given the persistently high level of global uncertainty and the Federal Reserve's dovish policy outlook, gold's safe-haven and investment value is unlikely to be weakened in the short term.

However, as prices rise rapidly, the market's sensitivity to macroeconomic data is also increasing, and the volatility of gold prices may increase accordingly.