The US dollar index fluctuated slightly, awaiting the release of CPI data.
2026-01-12 14:53:34
The US dollar index (DXY) was around 99.00 during Asian trading hours on Monday, ending a four-day winning streak. Market sentiment was cautious, mainly influenced by concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence and the latest US non-farm payroll data.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's investigation by federal prosecutors into whether he misled Congress over renovations to the Washington headquarters has fueled market uncertainty regarding the dollar's trajectory. U.S. labor market data showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, below market expectations of 60,000 and also lower than the revised 56,000 in November.
This indicates a slowdown in job growth, but the unemployment rate fell from 4.6% in November to 4.4%, suggesting that the overall labor market remains relatively resilient.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the decline in the unemployment rate is a positive sign, and job growth is moderate and stable, but hiring remains limited except in the medical and artificial intelligence sectors, and the future direction of the labor market remains uncertain.
The market is still pricing in two potential Fed rate cuts this year, but widespread expectations are that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its January 27-28 meeting. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, federal funds futures indicate a roughly 95% probability that the Fed will maintain its current rate.
Geopolitical risks continue to provide safe-haven support for the US dollar. President Trump warned Iran of potential U.S. actions if it uses force; Iran, in turn, warned the U.S. and Israel against intervention.
Meanwhile, European countries such as Britain and Germany are considering increasing their military presence in Greenland to strengthen Arctic security. These factors have increased demand for the US dollar as a safe haven in the short term, providing support for its price movement.
The daily chart shows that the US dollar index is under pressure near the 99.00 level, trading within an upward trend channel, but experiencing a short-term pullback after recent consecutive gains. The 50-day moving average (SMA) is providing support around 97.80, while the 200-day SMA at 95.50 is a significant medium- to long-term support level.
Bollinger Bands indicate that the price is approaching the upper band, and a short-term consolidation or pullback may occur. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 64, indicating weakening upward momentum, and a short-term consolidation may be needed to digest previous gains.
If the price holds above the 50-day moving average and continues to rise, the DXY may attempt to return to the 100 level; if it falls below this moving average, the downside potential in the short term could extend to around 98.20.
Editor's Note:
The short-term decline in the US dollar index was mainly due to weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data and concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, but geopolitical tensions provided some safe-haven support. The daily chart shows that prices are facing resistance near key moving averages and the upper Bollinger Band, and may remain volatile or consolidate in the short term.
Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on January 27-28 and Tuesday's CPI data, as these factors will determine the direction of the US dollar index in the next stage.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's investigation by federal prosecutors into whether he misled Congress over renovations to the Washington headquarters has fueled market uncertainty regarding the dollar's trajectory. U.S. labor market data showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, below market expectations of 60,000 and also lower than the revised 56,000 in November.
This indicates a slowdown in job growth, but the unemployment rate fell from 4.6% in November to 4.4%, suggesting that the overall labor market remains relatively resilient.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the decline in the unemployment rate is a positive sign, and job growth is moderate and stable, but hiring remains limited except in the medical and artificial intelligence sectors, and the future direction of the labor market remains uncertain.
The market is still pricing in two potential Fed rate cuts this year, but widespread expectations are that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its January 27-28 meeting. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, federal funds futures indicate a roughly 95% probability that the Fed will maintain its current rate.
Geopolitical risks continue to provide safe-haven support for the US dollar. President Trump warned Iran of potential U.S. actions if it uses force; Iran, in turn, warned the U.S. and Israel against intervention.
Meanwhile, European countries such as Britain and Germany are considering increasing their military presence in Greenland to strengthen Arctic security. These factors have increased demand for the US dollar as a safe haven in the short term, providing support for its price movement.
The daily chart shows that the US dollar index is under pressure near the 99.00 level, trading within an upward trend channel, but experiencing a short-term pullback after recent consecutive gains. The 50-day moving average (SMA) is providing support around 97.80, while the 200-day SMA at 95.50 is a significant medium- to long-term support level.
Bollinger Bands indicate that the price is approaching the upper band, and a short-term consolidation or pullback may occur. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 64, indicating weakening upward momentum, and a short-term consolidation may be needed to digest previous gains.
If the price holds above the 50-day moving average and continues to rise, the DXY may attempt to return to the 100 level; if it falls below this moving average, the downside potential in the short term could extend to around 98.20.
Editor's Note:
The short-term decline in the US dollar index was mainly due to weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data and concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, but geopolitical tensions provided some safe-haven support. The daily chart shows that prices are facing resistance near key moving averages and the upper Bollinger Band, and may remain volatile or consolidate in the short term.
Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on January 27-28 and Tuesday's CPI data, as these factors will determine the direction of the US dollar index in the next stage.
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