On Tuesday (January 13), spot gold traded in a narrow range around $4,580 per ounce during the Asian and European sessions, near the previous day's all-time high of $4,630.08. Traders were awaiting the release of US consumer inflation data later on Tuesday, a key indicator that could provide further clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, thus influencing the short-term trend of the US dollar and providing new directional guidance for gold, a non-interest-bearing asset. Meanwhile, the generally positive tone in the stock market was putting resistance to safe-haven gold.



Furthermore, market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence kept dollar bulls on the defensive. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks—including US military intervention in Venezuela, President Trump's threats of military action due to the Iranian unrest, the White House's insistence on acquiring Greenland, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict—continued to support gold prices. This suggests that upside resistance for gold is relatively small, and any pullback could be seen as a buying opportunity.

Gold bulls await US inflation data for further clues on potential Fed rate cuts.

The Trump administration's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has sparked concerns about the Fed's independence, pushing safe-haven gold to a record high earlier this week.

The Federal Reserve Chairman issued a rare statement saying that the threat of criminal charges against him stemmed from President Trump's anger at the Fed for ignoring his repeated public pressure and refusal to cut interest rates.

Trump told reporters that he was considering several options, including potential military action, in response to Iran's crackdown on large-scale anti-government demonstrations, amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

In addition, Trump announced on Monday afternoon local time that any country that trades with Iran will face a new 25% tariff on its goods imported into the United States, which is another positive factor for gold.

Last Friday's closely watched U.S. non-farm payroll data supported expectations that policy would likely remain unchanged in the first quarter. However, traders are still betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice more this year.

This outlook makes it difficult for the dollar to attract substantial buying, thus further supporting commodity prices. However, gold bulls are choosing to wait for the latest US consumer inflation data.

The market generally expects the U.S. overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 0.3% month-on-month in December, with the annual rate remaining unchanged at 2.7%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise slightly to 2.7% annually.

If the data deviates significantly from market expectations, it will change market expectations regarding the likelihood of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's January 28 meeting, thereby triggering volatility in the dollar and precious metals markets.

Gold may face resistance near the top of its upward channel.

The daily chart shows that the upward channel formed since November dominates the current uptrend, with resistance around $4650. The 50-day simple moving average (SMA, 4248.52) is trending upward, highlighting a solid buying tone. Gold is holding steady above this moving average, maintaining a bullish bias.

Both moving average convergence and divergence indicators are in positive territory, and the positive expansion of the histogram indicates increasing momentum. However, the relative strength index (RSI) is in overbought territory, which may limit the price's rise towards the upper channel line.



(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)

At 14:42 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4575.65 per ounce.