January 14th Financial Breakfast: US inflation data reinforces expectations of a Fed rate cut; gold and silver both hit record highs; oil prices rise over 2%.
2026-01-14 07:25:46
On Wednesday (January 14, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,595 per ounce. Gold and silver both hit record highs on Tuesday as US inflation data solidified market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, coupled with continued geopolitical and economic uncertainty boosting safe-haven demand. US crude oil was trading around $60.87 per barrel, with oil prices surging more than 2% on Tuesday, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, led by financial stocks. Investors grew increasingly concerned about President Trump's proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates last week, with executives at JPMorgan Chase and other firms warning that the plan would severely damage financial company profits and consumer interests.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.80%, the S&P 500 fell 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.10%. In terms of individual stocks, Visa and Mastercard fell 4.5% and 3.8% respectively, while the S&P financial sector as a whole fell 1.8%. Despite JPMorgan Chase reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter profits, its shares still closed down 4.2%.
On the macro level, the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-on-year in December, in line with expectations, which helped the market maintain its expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year and partially limited the decline in stock indices.
In earnings season, the release of results from companies such as JPMorgan Chase kicked off the fourth quarter earnings season. Analysts expect most banks to report stronger results last quarter, but the share prices of related banks generally fell. Additionally, Delta Air Lines' share price fell 2.4% after its median 2026 profit forecast fell short of expectations.
Market sentiment suggests that earnings news may be generally positive during earnings season, but Tuesday's decline reflects profit-taking after the market hit record highs recently.
Gold and silver prices both hit record highs on Tuesday as US inflation data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, coupled with continued geopolitical and economic uncertainty boosting safe-haven demand.
The U.S. core consumer price index rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year in December, both slightly below market expectations. This strengthened investors' bets on a shift in monetary policy, driving precious metals higher.
Spot gold hit a record high of $4,634.25 per ounce before settling around $4,591.49. US President Trump welcomed the inflation data, stating it supported his push for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Market analysts believe that geopolitical tensions and continued questioning of the Fed's independence provided fundamental support for gold.
Spot silver rose 2.1% to $86.74 per ounce, hitting a record high of $89.09 during the session. Commerzbank consequently raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4,900. In other precious metals, platinum prices were largely unchanged, while palladium rose 1.4%. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting at the end of January, but investors have already begun pricing in the possibility of two rate cuts this year.
Oil prices surged more than 2% on Tuesday, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions. Market concerns that Iranian oil supplies could be severely disrupted by ongoing large-scale anti-government protests in the country and potential hardline measures from the United States outweighed the potential for increased supply from Venezuela.
Brent crude rose 2.5% to settle at $65.47 a barrel; WTI crude rose about 2.8% to settle at $61.15 a barrel. Oil prices rose more than 3% at one point during the session, hitting their highest level in three months.
US President Trump's remarks exacerbated market tensions. He threatened to impose a 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran, publicly expressed solidarity with Iranian protesters, and canceled a scheduled meeting with Iranian officials. Analysts pointed out that if Iranian crude oil were completely excluded from the market, global daily supply would decrease by approximately 3.3 million barrels.
Barclays analysts believe that the turmoil in Iran has injected a geopolitical risk premium of approximately $3 to $4 per barrel into oil prices. Furthermore, multiple uncertainties surrounding Venezuela, the Russia-Ukraine war, and other factors have collectively supported oil prices.
The yen fell to 159.11 yen to the dollar on Tuesday, its lowest level since July 2024. Market concerns spurred a potential snap election by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who, if she consolidates her power with high approval ratings, could further push for looser fiscal and monetary policies, putting significant pressure on the yen.
Scotiabank currency strategist Eric Theore noted that Sanae Takashi's dovish stance on both fiscal and monetary policy, favoring a looser monetary policy with higher deficits, has a "very negative" impact on the yen. The rapid weakening of the yen has raised concerns in the market about potential intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market. Both Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Bessenter have expressed concern about the recent "unilateral depreciation" of the yen.
The dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.15. The US December Consumer Price Index (CPI) met expectations, rising 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year; core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. The data further reinforced the view that inflation is trending downwards and was seen as potentially providing the Federal Reserve with more room to cut interest rates, but traders remained concerned that inflation may have already hit a temporary low.
The euro, pound, and Australian dollar all weakened against the US dollar. Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting at the end of January, with federal funds rate futures indicating the first rate cut may be delayed until June. Furthermore, traders remain focused on concerns about central bank independence stemming from the judicial investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, despite a joint statement issued by global central bank officials on Tuesday expressing their support.
The U.S. fiscal deficit reached a record high of $145 billion in December.
On January 13 local time, the U.S. Treasury Department stated that due to record spending and adjustments to benefit payment schedules, the U.S. government recorded a fiscal deficit of $145 billion in December 2025, a 67% increase year-on-year, setting a new record for that month. (CCTV News)
Powell's testimony to members of Congress has become the focus of the Justice Department's high-stakes investigation.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it very clear to Capitol Hill that the Fed's renovation project did not include luxury additions such as apiaries, rooftop gardens, or high-end marble. There were no new fountains, no high-end marble, no private elevators, and no VIP restaurants. Powell's testimony has now become central to a criminal investigation, with critics suggesting he may have lied about project costs and luxury upgrades. This investigation comes after months of attacks from President Trump, who accused Powell of cost overruns and poor handling of interest rates, but no charges have yet been filed against him.
Israel announces its withdrawal from several UN agencies, citing "anti-Israel bias."
On March 13, local time, Israeli Foreign Minister Sa'ar announced that Israel had decided to withdraw from several UN agencies and related organizations. Israel stated that these agencies had issues such as "anti-Israel bias." The agencies Israel is withdrawing from include the Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict, UN Women, UN Conference on Trade and Development, UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, UN Alliance of Civilizations, UN Energy Mechanism, and the Global Forum on Migration and Development.
The Danish Prime Minister and the Prime Minister of the Greenlandic Autonomous Government stated that they will make it clear to the US that Greenland will never be sold.
Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen and Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nilsson stated at a joint press conference in Copenhagen on the 13th that Denmark and Greenland would express their determination to the United States that Greenland would never be sold during talks in Washington, D.C. on the 14th.
Global political and business leaders will gather in Davos next week.
US President Donald Trump will speak at the World Economic Forum in Davos next week, and his speech is expected to be the biggest highlight of this annual gathering of global elites. This year's US delegation is unprecedented in size, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio accompanying Trump. More than 60 heads of state and government from around the world will attend the Davos Forum, held from January 19 to 23. Business leaders such as Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods, and Alphabet executive Ruth Porat, as well as financial heavyweights such as Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase and Ken Griffin of Citadel Investments, will also participate.
The US government is seeking to seize dozens of oil tankers linked to Venezuela.
On January 13 local time, it was learned that the US government had applied to the court for a seizure order to seize dozens of oil tankers linked to Venezuela, further expanding its crackdown on Venezuela's oil transportation network. (CCTV)
The United States eases restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chip exports to China.
On January 13 local time, according to the U.S. Federal Register, the United States has relaxed regulations on the export of Nvidia's H200 chips to China. Previously, U.S. President Trump stated via social media that the U.S. government would allow Nvidia to sell H200 artificial intelligence chips to China. It is understood that the aforementioned sales to China will be subject to approval and security review by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and the U.S. will also receive a fee from the related transactions. (CCTV News)
my country's first space drilling and monitoring robot for seabed strata has been successfully developed.
The China Geological Survey, under the Ministry of Natural Resources, announced that my country's first robot capable of three-dimensional drilling and monitoring in seabed strata, independently developed by the Guangzhou Marine Geological Survey, has successfully completed its trial operation in the South China Sea. This marks a significant breakthrough in my country's deep-sea exploration and in-situ strata monitoring technology. (CCTV)
Guangzhou Futures Exchange: Will actively promote the research and application of weather derivatives
According to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE), on January 10, the GFE, Fudan University, and the National Meteorological Information Center signed a tripartite cooperation framework agreement and held a symposium. Representatives from the three parties reached an important consensus on promoting innovative practices in "meteorology × finance" and developing weather-related derivatives. A GFE representative stated that as a crucial venue for risk management, the futures market's introduction of weather derivatives that meet market needs is of significant practical importance in helping weather-sensitive enterprises, such as those in the new energy sector, mitigate weather volatility risks and serve the development of new productive forces. As a vital national financial infrastructure, the GFE will leverage its experience in green innovation and development, deepen practical cooperation with all parties, actively promote the research and application of weather derivatives, and provide strong support for meteorological risk management and the construction of a green finance system.
Key Focus Today
stock market
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, led by financial stocks. Investors grew increasingly concerned about President Trump's proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates last week, with executives at JPMorgan Chase and other firms warning that the plan would severely damage financial company profits and consumer interests.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.80%, the S&P 500 fell 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.10%. In terms of individual stocks, Visa and Mastercard fell 4.5% and 3.8% respectively, while the S&P financial sector as a whole fell 1.8%. Despite JPMorgan Chase reporting better-than-expected fourth-quarter profits, its shares still closed down 4.2%.
On the macro level, the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-on-year in December, in line with expectations, which helped the market maintain its expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year and partially limited the decline in stock indices.
In earnings season, the release of results from companies such as JPMorgan Chase kicked off the fourth quarter earnings season. Analysts expect most banks to report stronger results last quarter, but the share prices of related banks generally fell. Additionally, Delta Air Lines' share price fell 2.4% after its median 2026 profit forecast fell short of expectations.
Market sentiment suggests that earnings news may be generally positive during earnings season, but Tuesday's decline reflects profit-taking after the market hit record highs recently.
Gold Market
Gold and silver prices both hit record highs on Tuesday as US inflation data reinforced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, coupled with continued geopolitical and economic uncertainty boosting safe-haven demand.
The U.S. core consumer price index rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year in December, both slightly below market expectations. This strengthened investors' bets on a shift in monetary policy, driving precious metals higher.
Spot gold hit a record high of $4,634.25 per ounce before settling around $4,591.49. US President Trump welcomed the inflation data, stating it supported his push for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Market analysts believe that geopolitical tensions and continued questioning of the Fed's independence provided fundamental support for gold.
Spot silver rose 2.1% to $86.74 per ounce, hitting a record high of $89.09 during the session. Commerzbank consequently raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to $4,900. In other precious metals, platinum prices were largely unchanged, while palladium rose 1.4%. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting at the end of January, but investors have already begun pricing in the possibility of two rate cuts this year.
oil market
Oil prices surged more than 2% on Tuesday, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions. Market concerns that Iranian oil supplies could be severely disrupted by ongoing large-scale anti-government protests in the country and potential hardline measures from the United States outweighed the potential for increased supply from Venezuela.
Brent crude rose 2.5% to settle at $65.47 a barrel; WTI crude rose about 2.8% to settle at $61.15 a barrel. Oil prices rose more than 3% at one point during the session, hitting their highest level in three months.
US President Trump's remarks exacerbated market tensions. He threatened to impose a 25% tariff on any country trading with Iran, publicly expressed solidarity with Iranian protesters, and canceled a scheduled meeting with Iranian officials. Analysts pointed out that if Iranian crude oil were completely excluded from the market, global daily supply would decrease by approximately 3.3 million barrels.
Barclays analysts believe that the turmoil in Iran has injected a geopolitical risk premium of approximately $3 to $4 per barrel into oil prices. Furthermore, multiple uncertainties surrounding Venezuela, the Russia-Ukraine war, and other factors have collectively supported oil prices.
Foreign exchange market
The yen fell to 159.11 yen to the dollar on Tuesday, its lowest level since July 2024. Market concerns spurred a potential snap election by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who, if she consolidates her power with high approval ratings, could further push for looser fiscal and monetary policies, putting significant pressure on the yen.
Scotiabank currency strategist Eric Theore noted that Sanae Takashi's dovish stance on both fiscal and monetary policy, favoring a looser monetary policy with higher deficits, has a "very negative" impact on the yen. The rapid weakening of the yen has raised concerns in the market about potential intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market. Both Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Bessenter have expressed concern about the recent "unilateral depreciation" of the yen.
The dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.15. The US December Consumer Price Index (CPI) met expectations, rising 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year; core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. The data further reinforced the view that inflation is trending downwards and was seen as potentially providing the Federal Reserve with more room to cut interest rates, but traders remained concerned that inflation may have already hit a temporary low.
The euro, pound, and Australian dollar all weakened against the US dollar. Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting at the end of January, with federal funds rate futures indicating the first rate cut may be delayed until June. Furthermore, traders remain focused on concerns about central bank independence stemming from the judicial investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, despite a joint statement issued by global central bank officials on Tuesday expressing their support.
International News
The U.S. fiscal deficit reached a record high of $145 billion in December.
On January 13 local time, the U.S. Treasury Department stated that due to record spending and adjustments to benefit payment schedules, the U.S. government recorded a fiscal deficit of $145 billion in December 2025, a 67% increase year-on-year, setting a new record for that month. (CCTV News)
Powell's testimony to members of Congress has become the focus of the Justice Department's high-stakes investigation.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it very clear to Capitol Hill that the Fed's renovation project did not include luxury additions such as apiaries, rooftop gardens, or high-end marble. There were no new fountains, no high-end marble, no private elevators, and no VIP restaurants. Powell's testimony has now become central to a criminal investigation, with critics suggesting he may have lied about project costs and luxury upgrades. This investigation comes after months of attacks from President Trump, who accused Powell of cost overruns and poor handling of interest rates, but no charges have yet been filed against him.
Israel announces its withdrawal from several UN agencies, citing "anti-Israel bias."
On March 13, local time, Israeli Foreign Minister Sa'ar announced that Israel had decided to withdraw from several UN agencies and related organizations. Israel stated that these agencies had issues such as "anti-Israel bias." The agencies Israel is withdrawing from include the Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict, UN Women, UN Conference on Trade and Development, UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, UN Alliance of Civilizations, UN Energy Mechanism, and the Global Forum on Migration and Development.
The Danish Prime Minister and the Prime Minister of the Greenlandic Autonomous Government stated that they will make it clear to the US that Greenland will never be sold.
Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen and Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nilsson stated at a joint press conference in Copenhagen on the 13th that Denmark and Greenland would express their determination to the United States that Greenland would never be sold during talks in Washington, D.C. on the 14th.
Global political and business leaders will gather in Davos next week.
US President Donald Trump will speak at the World Economic Forum in Davos next week, and his speech is expected to be the biggest highlight of this annual gathering of global elites. This year's US delegation is unprecedented in size, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio accompanying Trump. More than 60 heads of state and government from around the world will attend the Davos Forum, held from January 19 to 23. Business leaders such as Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods, and Alphabet executive Ruth Porat, as well as financial heavyweights such as Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase and Ken Griffin of Citadel Investments, will also participate.
The US government is seeking to seize dozens of oil tankers linked to Venezuela.
On January 13 local time, it was learned that the US government had applied to the court for a seizure order to seize dozens of oil tankers linked to Venezuela, further expanding its crackdown on Venezuela's oil transportation network. (CCTV)
The United States eases restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chip exports to China.
On January 13 local time, according to the U.S. Federal Register, the United States has relaxed regulations on the export of Nvidia's H200 chips to China. Previously, U.S. President Trump stated via social media that the U.S. government would allow Nvidia to sell H200 artificial intelligence chips to China. It is understood that the aforementioned sales to China will be subject to approval and security review by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and the U.S. will also receive a fee from the related transactions. (CCTV News)
Domestic News
my country's first space drilling and monitoring robot for seabed strata has been successfully developed.
The China Geological Survey, under the Ministry of Natural Resources, announced that my country's first robot capable of three-dimensional drilling and monitoring in seabed strata, independently developed by the Guangzhou Marine Geological Survey, has successfully completed its trial operation in the South China Sea. This marks a significant breakthrough in my country's deep-sea exploration and in-situ strata monitoring technology. (CCTV)
Guangzhou Futures Exchange: Will actively promote the research and application of weather derivatives
According to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE), on January 10, the GFE, Fudan University, and the National Meteorological Information Center signed a tripartite cooperation framework agreement and held a symposium. Representatives from the three parties reached an important consensus on promoting innovative practices in "meteorology × finance" and developing weather-related derivatives. A GFE representative stated that as a crucial venue for risk management, the futures market's introduction of weather derivatives that meet market needs is of significant practical importance in helping weather-sensitive enterprises, such as those in the new energy sector, mitigate weather volatility risks and serve the development of new productive forces. As a vital national financial infrastructure, the GFE will leverage its experience in green innovation and development, deepen practical cooperation with all parties, actively promote the research and application of weather derivatives, and provide strong support for meteorological risk management and the construction of a green finance system.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
