Unexpectedly strong US jobs data boosted the dollar index, while gold remained range-bound at high levels.
2026-01-16 09:38:46
Gold prices continued their decline in early Asian trading on Friday, with spot gold falling to around $4,605 per ounce. Stronger-than-expected US jobs data pushed the US dollar index to a multi-week high, becoming the core factor suppressing precious metals.
Investors' expectations for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have cooled further, with funds flowing more into dollar assets. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor shows that initial jobless claims fell to 198,000 in the week ending January 10, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000 and a further decline from the revised figure of 207,000 in the previous week.
The data indicates that the labor market remains resilient, providing new upward momentum for the dollar. Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, said, "Recent data has made the market more cautious about the Fed's actions in the first half of the year, and the dollar index is at a multi-week high, which is a significant headwind for gold."
Besides monetary policy factors, the temporary easing of geopolitical tensions has also weakened gold's traditional safe-haven appeal. Previously, market concerns about a potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East had driven gold prices higher, but as tensions have eased, some safe-haven funds have shown signs of exiting the market.
From a daily chart perspective, gold encountered significant technical resistance around the $4650 area after its previous upward movement, and the price has begun to decline, indicating a shift from a strong to a weak short-term structure. The recent break below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages suggests a slowdown in the bullish momentum and a market correction phase.
In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD formed a death cross at a high level, and the red bars gradually contracted and turned into green bars, reflecting a significant weakening of upward momentum; the RSI also fell from the overbought zone to a neutral level, indicating that the previously overheated sentiment is cooling down.
The Bollinger Bands pattern shows that the price has retreated from the upper band to near the middle band, and the bands are showing signs of narrowing, suggesting that volatility may decrease in the short term. The current level of $4580 forms the first key support, which is also close to the 20-day moving average and the previous consolidation platform. If this level is effectively broken, the bears may target the $4520-$4500 range.
To alleviate short-term pressure, the price needs to re-establish itself above $4650. Overall, the daily chart has shifted to a consolidation pattern, and any rebound is more likely to be seen as a technical correction.
Editor's Note:
The core logic behind this round of gold price decline lies in the dual pressure of a strong dollar and waning safe-haven demand, rather than a substantial deterioration in demand. The convergence of technical and fundamental factors has significantly weakened the short-term bullish advantage.
When the US dollar enters a period of strength, gold often requires stronger inflation or risk events to restart its upward trend. If subsequent US data continues to demonstrate economic resilience, gold prices may fluctuate repeatedly within the $4,500-$4,650 range.
However, if external circumstances cause further disturbances, safe-haven funds may quickly flow back.
Investors' expectations for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have cooled further, with funds flowing more into dollar assets. Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor shows that initial jobless claims fell to 198,000 in the week ending January 10, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000 and a further decline from the revised figure of 207,000 in the previous week.
The data indicates that the labor market remains resilient, providing new upward momentum for the dollar. Peter Grant, Vice President and Senior Metals Strategist at Zaner Metals, said, "Recent data has made the market more cautious about the Fed's actions in the first half of the year, and the dollar index is at a multi-week high, which is a significant headwind for gold."
Besides monetary policy factors, the temporary easing of geopolitical tensions has also weakened gold's traditional safe-haven appeal. Previously, market concerns about a potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East had driven gold prices higher, but as tensions have eased, some safe-haven funds have shown signs of exiting the market.
From a daily chart perspective, gold encountered significant technical resistance around the $4650 area after its previous upward movement, and the price has begun to decline, indicating a shift from a strong to a weak short-term structure. The recent break below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages suggests a slowdown in the bullish momentum and a market correction phase.
In terms of momentum indicators, the MACD formed a death cross at a high level, and the red bars gradually contracted and turned into green bars, reflecting a significant weakening of upward momentum; the RSI also fell from the overbought zone to a neutral level, indicating that the previously overheated sentiment is cooling down.
The Bollinger Bands pattern shows that the price has retreated from the upper band to near the middle band, and the bands are showing signs of narrowing, suggesting that volatility may decrease in the short term. The current level of $4580 forms the first key support, which is also close to the 20-day moving average and the previous consolidation platform. If this level is effectively broken, the bears may target the $4520-$4500 range.
To alleviate short-term pressure, the price needs to re-establish itself above $4650. Overall, the daily chart has shifted to a consolidation pattern, and any rebound is more likely to be seen as a technical correction.
Editor's Note:
The core logic behind this round of gold price decline lies in the dual pressure of a strong dollar and waning safe-haven demand, rather than a substantial deterioration in demand. The convergence of technical and fundamental factors has significantly weakened the short-term bullish advantage.
When the US dollar enters a period of strength, gold often requires stronger inflation or risk events to restart its upward trend. If subsequent US data continues to demonstrate economic resilience, gold prices may fluctuate repeatedly within the $4,500-$4,650 range.
However, if external circumstances cause further disturbances, safe-haven funds may quickly flow back.
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