January 22nd Financial Breakfast: Trump retracts some of his hardline threats regarding Greenland; gold prices retreat after hitting a record high; supply concerns support oil prices.
2026-01-22 07:24:29
On Thursday (January 22, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,812 per ounce. Gold prices narrowed gains after hitting a record high of $4,888.17 per ounce on Wednesday, as US President Trump withdrew some of his hardline threats on Greenland, easing geopolitical tensions. US crude oil was trading around $60.57 per barrel. Oil prices rose more than 3.6% on Wednesday, mainly supported by supply concerns stemming from production disruptions at a large oil field in Kazakhstan and a slow recovery in Venezuelan exports.
The European Central Bank released the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting, and EU leaders held an emergency summit in Brussels to discuss solutions to Trump's tariff threats.
Boosted by news of a framework agreement on Greenland, major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose more than 1% on Wednesday, marking their biggest single-day gain in months. The market had fallen sharply the previous day due to tariff concerns, but Trump's announcement of a "future deal framework" for Greenland and the Arctic region, and the cancellation of tariffs originally scheduled to take effect on February 1, eased investor anxieties about a new trade conflict between the U.S. and Europe.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.21%, the S&P 500 rose 1.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.18%. All sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with energy stocks leading the gains, and the regional bank index rose to a 14-month high driven by positive earnings reports.
In terms of individual stocks, United Airlines rose due to optimistic earnings outlook, but Netflix and Kraft Heinz fell due to earnings reports and news of shareholder reductions. Market analysts believe that the agreement itself has limited direct impact on the economy, but it avoided escalating tariffs, causing investors to refocus on the positive fundamentals of the US economy.
Gold prices retreated from record highs on Wednesday, paring gains after US President Trump toned down some of his hardline threats over Greenland, easing geopolitical tensions, boosting stock markets, and diminishing gold's safe-haven appeal.
Spot gold rose 0.3% on Wednesday to settle at $4,778.51 an ounce, after hitting a record high of $4,888.17 during the session. U.S. gold futures settled up 1.5%. Analysts pointed out that news of the potential withdrawal of tariff threats from the U.S. and Europe boosted stock markets, erasing some of gold's gains, but this may only be a short-term fluctuation and does not change its long-term trend. After a 64% surge in 2025, gold has risen 11% so far in 2026.
Other precious metals generally retreated: spot silver fell 3.6%, platinum dipped slightly by 0.1%, and palladium fell 2.1%. Some strategists believe that although silver may experience adjustments and volatility, its price momentum could still push it to break through $100 per ounce in the future.
Oil prices closed higher on Wednesday, mainly supported by supply concerns stemming from production disruptions at a major oil field in Kazakhstan and a slow recovery in Venezuelan exports. Brent crude and WTI crude rose 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.
On the supply side, Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field suspended production due to force majeure affecting pipelines supplying oil to Black Sea ports, and the country's output is expected to be impacted for another seven to ten days. Meanwhile, Venezuela's oil exports, in accordance with its agreement with the United States, are progressing slowly, hindering its ability to fully reverse recent production cuts.
On the demand side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast in its latest report, suggesting a possible slight easing of the market's oversupply. Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to impose a risk premium on the market. The market is now focused on the U.S. crude oil inventory data to be released later today for further direction.
The dollar strengthened significantly on Wednesday, primarily driven by US President Trump's announcement that he was withdrawing tariff threats against several countries and stating that a framework agreement had been reached with NATO regarding the future of Greenland. This statement eased market concerns about escalating trade tensions and boosted stock markets significantly.
In terms of specific exchange rates, the euro fell 0.36% against the dollar, while the safe-haven Swiss franc fell 0.77%. Trump had previously threatened to impose tariffs on several European countries, as well as the UK and Norway, to pressure them into agreeing to the US purchase of Greenland. Although details of the new agreement framework have not been released, his decision to remove tariffs was seen by the market as a signal of easing short-term risks. Some analysts pointed out that the market's rise was a "relief rebound" and are watching for further developments. The EU stated that it will hold an emergency summit on Thursday to discuss related countermeasures.
Furthermore, the yen remained under pressure. Following the Japanese prime minister's announcement of an upcoming general election and pledge to ease fiscal policy, the yen faced selling pressure, causing the dollar to rise against the yen. Traders are closely watching volatility in the Japanese government bond market and whether the yen's exchange rate will approach levels that could trigger intervention. Some analysts believe that further selling of Japanese government bonds could push the dollar/yen exchange rate towards the sensitive 159/160 area.
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 95%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is 61.7%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 17.1%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 82.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.7%. By June, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 38.3%, and the probabilities of cumulative rate cuts of 25, 50, and 75 basis points are 45.9%, 14.2%, and 1.6%, respectively.
European Commission: Emergency summit of EU leaders will proceed as planned.
A spokesperson for the European Commission stated on the 21st that an emergency summit of EU leaders will be held as scheduled on the evening of the 22nd local time. It is reported that although US President Trump stated he would not use force to seize Greenland or impose tariffs on some EU countries, the EU will continue to push forward with the relevant meeting arrangements. The EU spokesperson stated that contacts between the EU and the US at all levels are ongoing, and the EU will take all necessary measures to safeguard its interests. In response to the US tariff threats, member states are still holding intensive consultations on possible countermeasures. (CCTV News)
Trump: A framework agreement has been reached on Greenland; tariffs will not take effect.
US President Trump stated on social media that, based on a very productive meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, we have initially established a framework for a future agreement regarding Greenland and the entire Arctic region. If this agreement is finalized, it will be a significant benefit to the United States and all NATO member states. Based on this understanding, I will not implement the tariffs originally scheduled to take effect on February 1st. Further discussions are also underway regarding Greenland and the Golden Dome project. More information will be provided as negotiations progress. Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Special Envoy Witkov, and other relevant personnel will be in charge of these negotiations—they will report directly to me.
Trump claims the Greenland agreement with NATO covers U.S. mineral rights.
US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that his framework agreement with NATO to ease tensions in Greenland involves mineral rights for both the US and Greenland. In an interview, Trump stated, "They will be involved in the development of Greenland's mineral resources, and we will be involved in that." When asked how long the agreement would last, Trump replied, "Permanently."
The European Parliament has announced an indefinite freeze on the review of the EU-US trade agreement.
On the 21st local time, Alain Lange, Chairman of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade, announced that the review of the EU-US trade agreement would be suspended indefinitely. Lange stated that the European Parliament's negotiating team decided that day to suspend the Committee's review of the EU-US trade agreement. Lange said that the EU's sovereignty and territorial integrity are currently under threat, making it impossible to continue the relevant work as usual. (CCTV News)
Trump to increase domestic travel ahead of midterm elections
In an effort to promote his economic agenda and reverse negative voter reception, US President Donald Trump plans to increase domestic travel ahead of the November midterm elections. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wells told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum that Trump will travel “weekly” and will further increase his schedule as the midterm elections, a crucial battle for control of Congress, approach.
Mexico announced it will continue supplying oil to Cuba.
On January 21 local time, Mexican President Jacques Sinbaum announced that the country would continue to supply oil to Cuba to alleviate the pressure from the US economic blockade against Cuba. Sinbaum stated that the oil supply was "both contractually binding and out of humanitarian considerations," and was a show of support for the Cuban people. She pointed out that the more than 60-year-long US trade embargo against Cuba has restricted the country's free import and export and economic development, and Mexico has always opposed such coercive measures. (CCTV)
Global cross-border tourism is projected to grow by approximately 4% by 2025.
The latest World Tourism Barometer report released by the United Nations Tourism Organization (UNWTO) on the 20th shows that global cross-border tourist arrivals are expected to increase by approximately 4% in 2025 compared to the previous year. The report states that nearly 60 million more cross-border tourists will travel globally in 2025, reaching 1.52 billion. Meanwhile, strong tourist spending will drive continued growth in global tourism revenue. Preliminary estimates indicate that global cross-border tourism revenue will reach US$1.9 trillion in 2025, a 5% increase compared to 2024. The report points out that the growth in cross-border tourists is driven by several factors, including strong global tourism demand, good performance in major source markets, continued recovery in Asia-Pacific tourist destinations, improved air connectivity, and increased visa facilitation measures. UNWTO Secretary-General Shehanasel Nuvez emphasized that despite high inflation in the tourism services sector and uncertainties caused by geopolitical tensions, international tourism demand will remain strong throughout 2025, and this positive trend is expected to continue in 2026. The UNWTO anticipates continued growth in international tourism in 2026, but high travel costs and geopolitical risks remain major challenges that the international tourism industry may face this year. (Xinhua)
The Ministry of Finance and two other departments announced that value-added tax will be temporarily exempted on capital gains from the transfer of CDRs of innovative enterprises by individual investors.
The Ministry of Finance and two other departments announced that value-added tax (VAT) will be temporarily exempted on capital gains from the transfer of innovative enterprise CDRs by individual investors. For institutional investors, VAT will be levied or exempted according to the regulations on financial product transfers. From January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2027, VAT will be temporarily exempted on capital gains from the transfer of innovative enterprise CDRs by managers of publicly offered securities investment funds (closed-end and open-end funds) during fund operation. VAT will also be temporarily exempted on capital gains from the transfer of innovative enterprise CDRs by Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs) and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFIIs) through domestic companies. (Ministry of Finance)
Ministry of Commerce: Total retail sales of consumer goods will exceed 50 trillion yuan by 2025, demonstrating the continued advantages of a super-large market.
2025 marks the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Commerce departments at all levels have thoroughly implemented the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, vigorously promoted special actions to boost consumption, deepened the trade-in program for old consumer goods, and built the "Shop in China" brand, continuously releasing consumption potential. Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 50.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7%. Among them, retail sales of goods increased by 3.8%, and catering revenue increased by 3.2%. Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, continuing to play a leading role in economic development. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, total retail sales of consumer goods successively reached new milestones of 40 trillion yuan, 45 trillion yuan, and 50 trillion yuan, providing strong support for promoting sustained economic recovery and better meeting the people's needs for a better life. (Ministry of Commerce)
Key Focus Today
The European Central Bank released the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting, and EU leaders held an emergency summit in Brussels to discuss solutions to Trump's tariff threats.
stock market
Boosted by news of a framework agreement on Greenland, major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose more than 1% on Wednesday, marking their biggest single-day gain in months. The market had fallen sharply the previous day due to tariff concerns, but Trump's announcement of a "future deal framework" for Greenland and the Arctic region, and the cancellation of tariffs originally scheduled to take effect on February 1, eased investor anxieties about a new trade conflict between the U.S. and Europe.
At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.21%, the S&P 500 rose 1.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.18%. All sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with energy stocks leading the gains, and the regional bank index rose to a 14-month high driven by positive earnings reports.
In terms of individual stocks, United Airlines rose due to optimistic earnings outlook, but Netflix and Kraft Heinz fell due to earnings reports and news of shareholder reductions. Market analysts believe that the agreement itself has limited direct impact on the economy, but it avoided escalating tariffs, causing investors to refocus on the positive fundamentals of the US economy.
Gold Market
Gold prices retreated from record highs on Wednesday, paring gains after US President Trump toned down some of his hardline threats over Greenland, easing geopolitical tensions, boosting stock markets, and diminishing gold's safe-haven appeal.
Spot gold rose 0.3% on Wednesday to settle at $4,778.51 an ounce, after hitting a record high of $4,888.17 during the session. U.S. gold futures settled up 1.5%. Analysts pointed out that news of the potential withdrawal of tariff threats from the U.S. and Europe boosted stock markets, erasing some of gold's gains, but this may only be a short-term fluctuation and does not change its long-term trend. After a 64% surge in 2025, gold has risen 11% so far in 2026.
Other precious metals generally retreated: spot silver fell 3.6%, platinum dipped slightly by 0.1%, and palladium fell 2.1%. Some strategists believe that although silver may experience adjustments and volatility, its price momentum could still push it to break through $100 per ounce in the future.
oil market
Oil prices closed higher on Wednesday, mainly supported by supply concerns stemming from production disruptions at a major oil field in Kazakhstan and a slow recovery in Venezuelan exports. Brent crude and WTI crude rose 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.
On the supply side, Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field suspended production due to force majeure affecting pipelines supplying oil to Black Sea ports, and the country's output is expected to be impacted for another seven to ten days. Meanwhile, Venezuela's oil exports, in accordance with its agreement with the United States, are progressing slowly, hindering its ability to fully reverse recent production cuts.
On the demand side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast in its latest report, suggesting a possible slight easing of the market's oversupply. Furthermore, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to impose a risk premium on the market. The market is now focused on the U.S. crude oil inventory data to be released later today for further direction.
Foreign exchange market
The dollar strengthened significantly on Wednesday, primarily driven by US President Trump's announcement that he was withdrawing tariff threats against several countries and stating that a framework agreement had been reached with NATO regarding the future of Greenland. This statement eased market concerns about escalating trade tensions and boosted stock markets significantly.
In terms of specific exchange rates, the euro fell 0.36% against the dollar, while the safe-haven Swiss franc fell 0.77%. Trump had previously threatened to impose tariffs on several European countries, as well as the UK and Norway, to pressure them into agreeing to the US purchase of Greenland. Although details of the new agreement framework have not been released, his decision to remove tariffs was seen by the market as a signal of easing short-term risks. Some analysts pointed out that the market's rise was a "relief rebound" and are watching for further developments. The EU stated that it will hold an emergency summit on Thursday to discuss related countermeasures.
Furthermore, the yen remained under pressure. Following the Japanese prime minister's announcement of an upcoming general election and pledge to ease fiscal policy, the yen faced selling pressure, causing the dollar to rise against the yen. Traders are closely watching volatility in the Japanese government bond market and whether the yen's exchange rate will approach levels that could trigger intervention. Some analysts believe that further selling of Japanese government bonds could push the dollar/yen exchange rate towards the sensitive 159/160 area.
International News
The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 95%, while the probability of a rate cut in June is 61.7%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 17.1%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 82.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.7%. By June, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 38.3%, and the probabilities of cumulative rate cuts of 25, 50, and 75 basis points are 45.9%, 14.2%, and 1.6%, respectively.
European Commission: Emergency summit of EU leaders will proceed as planned.
A spokesperson for the European Commission stated on the 21st that an emergency summit of EU leaders will be held as scheduled on the evening of the 22nd local time. It is reported that although US President Trump stated he would not use force to seize Greenland or impose tariffs on some EU countries, the EU will continue to push forward with the relevant meeting arrangements. The EU spokesperson stated that contacts between the EU and the US at all levels are ongoing, and the EU will take all necessary measures to safeguard its interests. In response to the US tariff threats, member states are still holding intensive consultations on possible countermeasures. (CCTV News)
Trump: A framework agreement has been reached on Greenland; tariffs will not take effect.
US President Trump stated on social media that, based on a very productive meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, we have initially established a framework for a future agreement regarding Greenland and the entire Arctic region. If this agreement is finalized, it will be a significant benefit to the United States and all NATO member states. Based on this understanding, I will not implement the tariffs originally scheduled to take effect on February 1st. Further discussions are also underway regarding Greenland and the Golden Dome project. More information will be provided as negotiations progress. Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Special Envoy Witkov, and other relevant personnel will be in charge of these negotiations—they will report directly to me.
Trump claims the Greenland agreement with NATO covers U.S. mineral rights.
US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that his framework agreement with NATO to ease tensions in Greenland involves mineral rights for both the US and Greenland. In an interview, Trump stated, "They will be involved in the development of Greenland's mineral resources, and we will be involved in that." When asked how long the agreement would last, Trump replied, "Permanently."
The European Parliament has announced an indefinite freeze on the review of the EU-US trade agreement.
On the 21st local time, Alain Lange, Chairman of the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade, announced that the review of the EU-US trade agreement would be suspended indefinitely. Lange stated that the European Parliament's negotiating team decided that day to suspend the Committee's review of the EU-US trade agreement. Lange said that the EU's sovereignty and territorial integrity are currently under threat, making it impossible to continue the relevant work as usual. (CCTV News)
Trump to increase domestic travel ahead of midterm elections
In an effort to promote his economic agenda and reverse negative voter reception, US President Donald Trump plans to increase domestic travel ahead of the November midterm elections. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wells told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Davos, Switzerland, for the World Economic Forum that Trump will travel “weekly” and will further increase his schedule as the midterm elections, a crucial battle for control of Congress, approach.
Mexico announced it will continue supplying oil to Cuba.
On January 21 local time, Mexican President Jacques Sinbaum announced that the country would continue to supply oil to Cuba to alleviate the pressure from the US economic blockade against Cuba. Sinbaum stated that the oil supply was "both contractually binding and out of humanitarian considerations," and was a show of support for the Cuban people. She pointed out that the more than 60-year-long US trade embargo against Cuba has restricted the country's free import and export and economic development, and Mexico has always opposed such coercive measures. (CCTV)
Global cross-border tourism is projected to grow by approximately 4% by 2025.
The latest World Tourism Barometer report released by the United Nations Tourism Organization (UNWTO) on the 20th shows that global cross-border tourist arrivals are expected to increase by approximately 4% in 2025 compared to the previous year. The report states that nearly 60 million more cross-border tourists will travel globally in 2025, reaching 1.52 billion. Meanwhile, strong tourist spending will drive continued growth in global tourism revenue. Preliminary estimates indicate that global cross-border tourism revenue will reach US$1.9 trillion in 2025, a 5% increase compared to 2024. The report points out that the growth in cross-border tourists is driven by several factors, including strong global tourism demand, good performance in major source markets, continued recovery in Asia-Pacific tourist destinations, improved air connectivity, and increased visa facilitation measures. UNWTO Secretary-General Shehanasel Nuvez emphasized that despite high inflation in the tourism services sector and uncertainties caused by geopolitical tensions, international tourism demand will remain strong throughout 2025, and this positive trend is expected to continue in 2026. The UNWTO anticipates continued growth in international tourism in 2026, but high travel costs and geopolitical risks remain major challenges that the international tourism industry may face this year. (Xinhua)
Domestic News
The Ministry of Finance and two other departments announced that value-added tax will be temporarily exempted on capital gains from the transfer of CDRs of innovative enterprises by individual investors.
The Ministry of Finance and two other departments announced that value-added tax (VAT) will be temporarily exempted on capital gains from the transfer of innovative enterprise CDRs by individual investors. For institutional investors, VAT will be levied or exempted according to the regulations on financial product transfers. From January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2027, VAT will be temporarily exempted on capital gains from the transfer of innovative enterprise CDRs by managers of publicly offered securities investment funds (closed-end and open-end funds) during fund operation. VAT will also be temporarily exempted on capital gains from the transfer of innovative enterprise CDRs by Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFIIs) and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFIIs) through domestic companies. (Ministry of Finance)
Ministry of Commerce: Total retail sales of consumer goods will exceed 50 trillion yuan by 2025, demonstrating the continued advantages of a super-large market.
2025 marks the final year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Commerce departments at all levels have thoroughly implemented the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, vigorously promoted special actions to boost consumption, deepened the trade-in program for old consumer goods, and built the "Shop in China" brand, continuously releasing consumption potential. Total retail sales of consumer goods reached 50.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.7%. Among them, retail sales of goods increased by 3.8%, and catering revenue increased by 3.2%. Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to economic growth, continuing to play a leading role in economic development. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, total retail sales of consumer goods successively reached new milestones of 40 trillion yuan, 45 trillion yuan, and 50 trillion yuan, providing strong support for promoting sustained economic recovery and better meeting the people's needs for a better life. (Ministry of Commerce)
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