Recent social events in Iran have drawn widespread international attention. Unlike previous street protests primarily led by youth or secular groups, this new wave of social dynamics presents a thought-provoking characteristic: traditional businesspeople and industrialists, long considered staunch supporters of the state, as well as residents of key religious areas, have begun to openly express their discontent. This shift is not an isolated phenomenon, but rather the result of a complex interplay of economic pressures, social contradictions, and historical grievances. Its trajectory and depth of impact are becoming an important window into observing the country's future social stability.

Economic hardship: the immediate trigger for the wave of protests

The most direct cause of this social movement stemmed from the harsh economic reality. The continuous decline in the value of the country's currency, the riyal, on the international market led to a sharp increase in import costs. For an economy already facing external trade restrictions, the currency devaluation further exacerbated domestic inflation, causing prices to rise across the board, from food to daily necessities. This economic pressure not only affected the lives of ordinary people but also directly impacted the livelihoods of numerous small and medium-sized businesses.

In Tehran's historic traditional bazaar district, many shop owners face the predicament of unsold goods and high costs. Many shops have been forced to close because they can't sell anything. The main reason merchants who participated in the street protests earlier were demonstrating against the economic stagnation and the hardship of life. Similar scenes are not only occurring in the Iranian capital, but also reveal the fertile ground for growing discontent from an economic perspective.

The Rift in a Historical Alliance: From Pillars to Protesters

More symbolically significant and far-reachingly impactful is the shift in the participants. The traditional bazaar merchant class and its associated networks played a crucial role in the 1979 political upheaval, providing vital material support and a foundation for social organization. The post-revolutionary regime also explicitly pledged to protect the interests of this traditional market, leading many merchants to enter the political system. For a long time, this group has been regarded as one of the stable social pillars of the current system.

However, over time, this alliance has developed significant cracks. Many business leaders believe that the government has been weak in economic governance, failing to effectively combat corruption, improve the business environment, or alleviate external economic pressures. When core members of the former alliance take to the streets due to economic hardship, the political signal they send is far stronger than mere street protests. This signifies that discontent has infiltrated even the regime's once most reliable support base.

Geographical Spread: Discontent Deepens into Religious Core Areas

Another prominent feature of this social movement is its symbolic geographical distribution. Besides Tehran, the movement has spread to cities of significant religious importance, such as Qom and Mashhad. In these areas, theological institutions and sacred shrines have historically been the core of conservative social forces and often the most steadfast bases of support for the regime.

In Mashhad, large gatherings took place near important shrines. According to reports from several human rights watchdogs, the subsequent response resulted in casualties. Similar protests occurred in Isfahan and other locations, with participants including ordinary believers who normally adhere to religious rituals. A construction contractor who died in the Isfahan protests, according to his relatives, still regularly attended Friday prayers and fasted during Ramadan, but was also disillusioned with the country's economic situation and political climate. This suggests that economic hardship and anxieties about the future may be transcending traditional political or religious divisions, resonating across a wide range of people.

The regime's response and the silence of society

Faced with the escalating protests, authorities took strong measures to restore order, including cutting off local network communications and deploying large numbers of security personnel. These measures did bring a temporary semblance of calm to the streets, and large gatherings were dispersed. For example, in Mashhad, once bustling streets became deserted after large-scale security patrols, with local residents describing the streets as "empty and everyone was terrified."

However, while strong control may temporarily suppress street activities, it cannot eradicate the deep-seated socio-economic roots of discontent. Problems such as a weak currency, high inflation, employment difficulties, and external pressures persist. A former Iranian official in exile believes that the currency crisis was merely the "trigger point" for this event; the pent-up problems among the public extend far beyond the economic sphere, involving deep-seated doubts about governance methods and the direction of development.

Deep Challenges Beneath the Calm

In conclusion, the current social dynamics in Iran reveal a core issue: when the economy is in prolonged stagnation and people's livelihoods remain difficult, even the most solid social foundations of a regime can crumble. From the involvement of traditional bazaar merchants to the turmoil in religiously significant cities, all indicate that discontent is spreading and deepening.

Although strong security measures have temporarily suppressed the flames of street protests, creating a tense but calm atmosphere, the fundamental contradictions that led to the protests have not disappeared. The effectiveness of economic governance, the perception of social justice, and the ability to cope with the international environment will continue to test a country's social stability and political resilience. How to rebuild consensus and alleviate people's suffering through effective economic and social policies will be key to determining whether it can achieve long-term stability. This series of events not only serves as a barometer of a country's domestic politics but also provides a profound case study for observing the stability of social structures under complex international sanctions.

Analysis of the impact on gold prices

1. Safe-haven demand drives short-term strength in gold prices.

Geopolitical premiums are rising: Tensions in Iran will directly increase market demand for safe-haven assets. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, typically attracts inflows during periods of political turmoil and social instability. Spot gold has been rising recently, hitting a record high of $4888/oz on Wednesday. Although it briefly retreated to around $4755 at the end of Wednesday's session, bargain hunting supported the price, closing near $4831. On Thursday, it rebounded after hitting a low of over 1% to $4772.39 in the early morning, but has now recovered all losses, trading around $4835/oz. If the situation in Iran escalates into armed conflict or regime change, gold prices could rise further.

Currency depreciation expectations: The sharp drop in the Iranian rial reflects the potential spread of currency risks in emerging markets, exacerbating global concerns about sovereign credit assets, and some funds may turn to gold to hedge against currency depreciation risks.

2. Long-term supporting factors strengthened.

Inflationary pressures: Iran is a major oil producer, and a deterioration in the situation leading to disruptions in crude oil supply could push up global inflation expectations. Gold, as an inflation hedge, will see long-term demand.

Doubts about the credibility of the US dollar: US intervention in regional conflicts may exacerbate the trend of "de-dollarization," and central banks around the world may accelerate the diversification of their gold reserves, creating structural buying pressure.

3. Key Risk Points

Easing tensions lead to a decline in premiums: If the Iranian government stabilizes the situation through economic reforms or policy compromises, a decrease in risk aversion could trigger a technical correction in gold prices.

Fed policy pressure: If the Iranian crisis drives up global inflation, forcing the Fed to maintain a tight monetary policy, it could weaken the appeal of gold.



At 15:18 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,838.84 per ounce.