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February 13th Financial Breakfast: Expectations for a near-term Fed rate cut have decreased, gold prices have fallen below the $5000 mark, and oil prices have dropped by over 3% driven by multiple negative factors.

2026-02-13 07:22:41

On Friday (February 13, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $4,915.50 per ounce. Gold prices fell more than 3% on Thursday, hitting a near one-week low, as strong US jobs data weakened market expectations for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. After gold prices fell below the $5,000 per ounce mark, selling pressure intensified, leading to a wider decline. US crude oil was trading around $62.90 per barrel. Oil prices fell more than 3% on Thursday due to weak demand, fading concerns about renewed conflict in the Middle East, and anticipated increased supply.

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stock market


U.S. stocks fell sharply on Thursday, with the Nasdaq Composite Index, heavily weighted with technology stocks, plunging 2%. Investors intensified their sell-off of technology stocks and also withdrew from transportation stocks, driven by market concerns that artificial intelligence will trigger disruptive changes in the industry.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.34% to close at 49,451.98; the S&P 500 fell 1.57% to close at 6,832.76; and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.03% to close at 22,597.15.

Jack Herr, chief investment analyst at GuideStone Funds, said the core issue in the market right now is which industries can improve productivity through AI investment, and conversely, which industries will be disrupted by artificial intelligence. "We believe this year is a 'validation year' for AI, and we need to start seeing returns on our investments."

Cisco's lackluster quarterly results, released amid investor pressure over the impact of artificial intelligence, further dampened sentiment in the overall tech stock market. Cisco shares closed down 12.3%, marking their biggest one-day drop since May 2022. Marc Dizard, chief investment officer at Huntington Asset Management, noted that the Cisco sell-off could prompt investors to move away from highly liquid giants like Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom, and Amazon.

Earnings season has reignited investor concerns about massive capital expenditures. Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are projected to spend a combined total of approximately $650 billion in the race to dominate artificial intelligence.

The S&P 500 Software Index fell 1.7%, marking its second consecutive day of decline. AppLovin suffered the biggest drop, with its shares plunging 19.7% after reporting fourth-quarter earnings. The economically sensitive Dow Jones Transportation Index fell 4%, with Landstar plummeting 15.6%, CH Robinson down 14.5%, and Expeditors International down 13.2%. CNBC previously reported that a new tool released by AI company Algorhythm Holdings made trucking companies the latest target of investor concerns about AI disruption; Algorhythm's shares closed nearly 30% higher that day. Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, pointed out that Wednesday's jobs report showed weak hiring in the transportation industry, coupled with the potential impact of automation and the risk of weak demand, putting pressure on the industry's outlook.

Equinix, the world's largest data center operator, predicted on Wednesday that its full-year revenue would exceed expectations, betting on strong demand related to artificial intelligence. Its stock price surged 10.4%, becoming the top gainer in the S&P 500 real estate index.

On the economic data front, Thursday's data showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell less than expected last week, possibly due to ongoing disruptions from winter storms. Investors are closely watching Friday's January Consumer Price Index report, as Wednesday's stronger-than-expected jobs report has exacerbated market concerns about a reduced likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

Gold Market


Gold prices fell to a near one-week low on Thursday as strong U.S. jobs data dampened market expectations for a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The decline widened as selling pressure intensified after gold prices broke below the $5,000 per ounce level.

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Spot gold fell 2.8% to $4,938.69 an ounce, after earlier hitting its lowest level since February 6. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled at $4,948.40 an ounce, down 2.9%.

Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and FOREX, said that due to increased market volatility, many investors placed stop-loss orders below $5,000 or above $5,100 to protect their positions. "As prices fell, these stop-loss orders were triggered below $5,000, causing a chain reaction that led to a sharp drop in prices in a short period of time."

Data released Wednesday showed that the U.S. job market got off to a stronger-than-expected start in 2026. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.3%. Thursday's data showed that initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 in the week ending February 7. The strong labor market reinforces the view that policymakers may maintain high interest rates for a longer period. Gold, due to its non-interest-bearing nature, is instead suppressed by high interest rates. Investors are awaiting U.S. inflation data to be released on Friday for more clues about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

In other precious metals, silver fell 8.9% to $76.54 per ounce, spot platinum fell 4.7% to $2032.15 per ounce, and palladium fell 3% to $1648.12.

oil market


Oil prices fell on Thursday as weak demand, easing concerns about renewed conflict in the Middle East, and expectations of increased supply weighed on prices. Brent crude futures settled at $67.52 a barrel, down 2.71%. U.S. crude settled at $62.84 a barrel, down 2.77%.

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday that global oil demand growth this year will be slower than previously expected, while predicting a significant surplus despite production cuts caused by supply disruptions in January. Brent and U.S. crude oil prices reversed course after the IEA's monthly report was released, having previously been supported by concerns over U.S.-Iran tensions.

US President Trump said on Thursday that the United States must reach a deal with Iran, and believes that an agreement could be reached within the next month.

A sharp rise in U.S. crude oil inventories capped early gains. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week. On the supply side, data showed that Russian seaborne petroleum product exports rose 0.7% in January compared to December, reaching 9.12 million tons, driven by high fuel production and a seasonal decline in domestic demand.

Foreign exchange market


The dollar was largely unchanged against major currencies on Thursday, holding steady amid a mixed bag of the latest U.S. economic data, while the yen posted its strongest weekly performance in a year.

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Data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims fell less than expected, consistent with economists' views that the labor market is stabilizing. Previous data showed strong job growth in January, a decline in the unemployment rate, and weak retail sales in December. Inflation data will be released on Friday.

Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street, said the market is still seeking guidance on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the state of the US economy. Earlier this week's retail sales data was worrying, and the subsequent non-farm payroll data confirmed the current "no layoffs, no hiring" employment environment. The Federal Reserve will maintain a wait-and-see stance until issues such as tariff policy, inflation trends, and whether retail data foreshadows a recession become clearer. Market expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until mid-year are weighing on the dollar.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently expects a 92% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting, but the probability of a rate cut at the June meeting is approaching 50%.

The US dollar index remained unchanged at 96.93. The euro was unchanged against the dollar at $1.186975. The dollar fell 0.29% against the Swiss franc to 0.76955 francs.

Market expectations of a near-term interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve are dragging down U.S. assets. Wall Street stock indexes fell, with the benchmark S&P 500 closing lower. U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dropping 7.7 basis points to 4.106%.

In a report, Scotiabank analysts stated that they still expect the US dollar to weaken across the board against major developed economy currencies, a weakness projected to continue into 2026 and into the end of 2027. This contrasts sharply with the prospect of other central banks maintaining or even extending their tightening policies, while the Federal Reserve is likely to ease policy in the short term.

The yen is poised for a strong close against the dollar this week, buoyed by optimism following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party's victory in Sunday's election. This win reinforces Takaichi's governing mandate to boost investment and cut taxes to revitalize the economy, but these measures could make it more difficult for the Bank of Japan to further raise borrowing costs. The yen rose 0.25% to around 152.905 yen, on track for its fourth consecutive day of gains. If the strength continues into Friday, it will mark its biggest weekly gain since February 2025.

The Australian dollar approached a three-year high against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates and hinted at further rate hikes to combat inflation. The Australian dollar fell 0.51% to US$0.709 in late New York trading, near its highest level since February 2023 at US$0.7147.

International News


Trump: The US "must" reach a deal with Iran or the situation will be "very serious".

On February 12 local time, US President Trump stated that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious." Furthermore, Trump stated that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu "has not said" he would demand a halt to negotiations, and the two sides have "not discussed" the issue. He emphasized, "I'm willing to talk to them (Iran) for as long as I want," and if an agreement cannot be reached, "we will enter a second phase," which will be "very difficult for them." Trump stated that if Iran does not reach an agreement, "it will be a different situation," and warned that the situation could develop rapidly within the next month. Trump said that his talks with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu were "very good," but whether an agreement is reached "ultimately depends on me." He emphasized that the agreement must be "a very fair, very good agreement." (CCTV News)

Netanyahu: Israel doubts Trump's belief that a deal can be reached with Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on the 12th that while US President Donald Trump believes a deal with Iran is possible, he himself is skeptical. Netanyahu concluded his visit to the US that day and departed for Israel. According to a statement released by the Israeli Prime Minister's Office, Netanyahu told the media before boarding his plane that Trump believes the conditions he has "created," coupled with Iran's awareness of the consequences of the previous failure to reach an agreement, mean that the conditions for a "good deal" may have been ripe. Netanyahu stated that he is skeptical about the "quality" of any agreement with Iran. He has made it clear to the US that if an agreement is reached with Iran, it must include "content that is crucial to Israel."

The White House urgently submitted a plan to prevent the Department of Homeland Security from shutting down.

The White House scrambled at the last minute to avoid a shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, submitting legislative text to Democrats before the funding deadline. Democrats are expected to reject the proposal, calling previous offers "neither complete nor sufficient." Senate Democrats stated negotiations were deadlocked and insisted they would not support any new temporary funding measures unless an agreement was reached on a ten-point plan to reform Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Protection (CBP). Senator Jackie Rosen criticized the White House's response for lacking detail and accused Republicans of relying on short-term extensions to circumvent broader immigration reform.

Philippine nickel ore exports to Indonesia are expected to increase significantly.

According to Dante Bravo, president of Global Ferronickel, the world's second-largest nickel ore producer, Philippine nickel ore exports to Indonesia could double this year, reaching 30 million tons. Bravo stated that Philippine exports "could double" this year, with total shipments to Indonesia expected to reach approximately 15 million tons by 2025. Tulsi Das Reyes, president of the mining division at DMCI Holdings Inc., noted that reduced Indonesian production will create opportunities for Philippine ore producers, especially given continued strong global demand.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister: The time and place for the next round of negotiations on the Ukraine issue are still under discussion.

On February 12 local time, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, when asked about the possibility of a third round of negotiations on the Ukraine issue in the United States, stated that the specific time and location of the next round of talks are still under discussion and will not be announced until an agreement is reached. Ryabkov also pointed out that, from all perspectives, Abu Dhabi is a favorable location for the negotiations. (CCTV News)

Turkish Foreign Minister says US stance on Iran's uranium enrichment has softened.

As the United States and Iran consult on preparations for the next round of nuclear negotiations, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fedan revealed on February 12 that the US and Iran are showing "flexibility" in reaching a nuclear agreement. The US "seems willing" to tolerate limited uranium enrichment activities by Iran, while Iran "recognizes" that it needs the agreement. In an interview published that day in the Financial Times, Fedan expressed cautious optimism about a US-Iran nuclear agreement. He said, "The US seems willing to tolerate Iran's uranium enrichment activities within clearly defined limits… The US understands that Iran has a bottom line, and trying to force them is pointless." Fedan said he believes Iran "genuinely wants a concrete agreement" and is willing to accept limits on uranium enrichment levels and a strict inspection mechanism. However, he warned that if the US expands the nuclear negotiations to include Iran's ballistic missile program, it will not only fail to resolve the current impasse but will also lead to "another war." (Xinhua)

Domestic News


China Academy of Information and Communications Technology: my country's manufacturing digital transformation has entered a stage of large-scale popularization.

Recently, the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) released the "Report on the Development of Digital Transformation in Manufacturing (2025)". The report argues that digital transformation in manufacturing is a key variable in solving industrial challenges. The report states that my country's manufacturing digital transformation has entered a stage of large-scale popularization. Currently, the policy system is continuously improving, application levels are deepening, supply levels are significantly increasing, and basic guarantees are being strengthened. According to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Comprehensive Information Service Platform for Digital Transformation in Manufacturing, as of December 2025, among the registered large-scale industrial enterprises nationwide, 89.6% have carried out digital transformation, and the penetration rate of digital equipment has reached 57.7%, indicating a solid foundation for the widespread adoption of digital transformation in my country's manufacturing industry. By industry, the automotive, shipbuilding, and electronic information manufacturing industries are progressing rapidly in digital transformation, with a generally higher proportion of enterprises undertaking digital transformation.

my country's first AC/DC hybrid cross-river project has been completed and put into operation.

The State Grid Corporation of China announced that the second phase of the Yangzhou-Zhenjiang ±200 kV DC transmission project, my country's first AC/DC hybrid cross-river project, has officially commenced operation. The project traverses seven counties across three cities in Jiangsu Province—Huai'an, Yangzhou, and Zhenjiang—with a transmission distance of 228 kilometers and a transmission capacity of 1.2 million kilowatts. Without adding any new cross-Yangtze River transmission channels, the existing cross-river transmission capacity will be tripled. (CCTV News)
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Real-Time Popular Commodities

Instrument Current Price Change

XAU

4989.58

68.77

(1.40%)

XAG

77.325

2.127

(2.83%)

CONC

62.77

-0.07

(-0.11%)

OILC

67.43

-0.11

(-0.16%)

USD

96.964

0.058

(0.06%)

EURUSD

1.1865

-0.0005

(-0.04%)

GBPUSD

1.3615

-0.0005

(-0.03%)

USDCNH

6.9025

0.0065

(0.09%)

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