Slowing inflation and supply juggernaut; OPEC+ plans to restart production increases, putting downward pressure on oil prices on a weekly basis.
2026-02-14 07:42:38
Oil prices edged higher on Friday as optimism over slowing U.S. inflation data outweighed supply concerns about a potential resumption of production increases by OPEC+.
Brent crude rose 0.3% to settle at $67.75 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 0.08% to settle at $62.89 a barrel. Despite Friday's gains, both benchmark crudes recorded weekly declines. Brent crude fell approximately 0.5% this week, while WTI crude fell 1%.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than expected in January, mainly due to falling gasoline prices and slowing rental inflation. Market analysts believe that stabilizing inflation may provide the Federal Reserve with room for further interest rate cuts, thereby supporting economic growth and boosting risk appetite in the oil market.
Data released by U.S. energy services company Baker Hughes shows that the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States decreased by 3 this week, falling to 409.
According to three OPEC+ sources, OPEC+ is currently leaning towards resuming its production increase plan starting in April to meet peak summer demand, while heightened tensions between the US and Iran have further pushed up oil prices. The resumption of the production increase plan would allow Saudi Arabia and the UAE to regain market share, as member countries such as Russia, Venezuela, and Iran are currently facing pressure from Western sanctions, while Kazakhstan's production has been constrained by a series of setbacks. OPEC+ will meet on March 1. Two sources said that no decision has been made yet, and consultations will continue in the weeks leading up to the meeting. OPEC, Russia, and Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov previously stated that talks on the Ukraine crisis would be held in Geneva from February 17 to 18. According to sources, "This will be a continuation of the trilateral military talks previously held in Abu Dhabi, but this time it will be held in an expanded format to discuss military issues and other topics related to resolving the conflict."
Asian markets will be closed next week for the Lunar New Year holiday, but the market remains cautious about the US-Iran situation. According to sources, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and its escort ships, deployed in the Caribbean, have been ordered to the Middle East and are expected to return to their home port in late April or early May. The crew learned of this decision earlier on February 12. Amidst the tense situation in the Middle East, the US Department of Defense ordered a second carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East on February 12, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group already deployed in the Persian Gulf.
The report noted that aircraft from the USS Ford participated in strikes against Caracas, Venezuela, in early January.
On February 12, US President Trump expressed his hope to reach an agreement with Iran, stating, "If we can't reach an agreement with them, we'll move to phase two. Phase two will be very difficult for them." On February 13, Trump confirmed that the US military would send a second carrier strike group to the Middle East to pressure Iran into reaching an agreement.
Brent crude rose 0.3% to settle at $67.75 a barrel, while WTI crude rose 0.08% to settle at $62.89 a barrel. Despite Friday's gains, both benchmark crudes recorded weekly declines. Brent crude fell approximately 0.5% this week, while WTI crude fell 1%.
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose less than expected in January, mainly due to falling gasoline prices and slowing rental inflation. Market analysts believe that stabilizing inflation may provide the Federal Reserve with room for further interest rate cuts, thereby supporting economic growth and boosting risk appetite in the oil market.
Data released by U.S. energy services company Baker Hughes shows that the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States decreased by 3 this week, falling to 409.
According to three OPEC+ sources, OPEC+ is currently leaning towards resuming its production increase plan starting in April to meet peak summer demand, while heightened tensions between the US and Iran have further pushed up oil prices. The resumption of the production increase plan would allow Saudi Arabia and the UAE to regain market share, as member countries such as Russia, Venezuela, and Iran are currently facing pressure from Western sanctions, while Kazakhstan's production has been constrained by a series of setbacks. OPEC+ will meet on March 1. Two sources said that no decision has been made yet, and consultations will continue in the weeks leading up to the meeting. OPEC, Russia, and Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov previously stated that talks on the Ukraine crisis would be held in Geneva from February 17 to 18. According to sources, "This will be a continuation of the trilateral military talks previously held in Abu Dhabi, but this time it will be held in an expanded format to discuss military issues and other topics related to resolving the conflict."
Asian markets will be closed next week for the Lunar New Year holiday, but the market remains cautious about the US-Iran situation. According to sources, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and its escort ships, deployed in the Caribbean, have been ordered to the Middle East and are expected to return to their home port in late April or early May. The crew learned of this decision earlier on February 12. Amidst the tense situation in the Middle East, the US Department of Defense ordered a second carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East on February 12, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group already deployed in the Persian Gulf.
The report noted that aircraft from the USS Ford participated in strikes against Caracas, Venezuela, in early January.
On February 12, US President Trump expressed his hope to reach an agreement with Iran, stating, "If we can't reach an agreement with them, we'll move to phase two. Phase two will be very difficult for them." On February 13, Trump confirmed that the US military would send a second carrier strike group to the Middle East to pressure Iran into reaching an agreement.
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