With UK employment and inflation data imminent, GBP/USD is experiencing short-term fluctuations, awaiting a directional move.
2026-02-16 10:23:58
During Monday's Asian trading session, GBP/USD opened weakly, hovering in a narrow range around 1.3590.
The market is currently facing a situation of conflicting macroeconomic data from the UK and the US, as well as diverging policy expectations; traders need to remain cautious.
In the UK, the employment report will be released this Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. These two data points will directly impact the Bank of England's monetary policy outlook.
The market widely expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March, so data performance will be an important trigger for short-term fluctuations in the pound.
Meanwhile, the US will release the Federal Reserve FOMC minutes this Wednesday, and investors will pay attention to the Fed's future interest rate cut path to judge the dollar's trend and affect GBP/USD.
The US January CPI data released last Friday showed that inflation was softening, and market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June have increased. Bets on at least two rate cuts in 2026 have already been priced into the dollar, which is putting pressure on the safe-haven dollar.
Recent uncertainty in the UK has eased somewhat, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer securing support from the cabinet and Labour MPs, which has stabilized the pound to some extent. Consequently, the market is cautious about further depreciation of GBP/USD, and the downside potential in the short term may be limited.
Next weekend, UK retail sales data and the UK and US Lightning Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be released, potentially providing additional opportunities for short-term trading. Overall, GBP/USD is expected to remain range-bound in the short term, with close attention focused on macroeconomic data and policy signals.
The daily chart shows that GBP/USD is maintaining a range of 1.3570-1.3620, with short-term moving averages arranged horizontally, indicating a lack of clear market trend.
The 20-day moving average is providing initial support around 1.3585. If the price breaks below this level, 1.3550 and 1.3520 will become key downside levels to watch. The 4-hour chart shows GBP/USD fluctuating around 1.3590, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining around 50.
Short-term momentum is neutral. Upward resistance levels to watch are 1.3620 and 1.3650; a break above these levels could open up short-term bullish opportunities. Downward support levels are 1.3570 and 1.3550.
Editor's Note:
Short-term fluctuations in the pound are constrained by conflicting expectations regarding UK and US policy and macroeconomic data. Current fundamentals suggest that UK employment and inflation data may guide the direction of the BoE policy, while expectations of US interest rate cuts are limiting the dollar's upward movement.
Overall, GBP/USD is expected to trade within a narrow range in the short term, and the bullish trend needs to be confirmed by clear data and policy signals.
The market is currently facing a situation of conflicting macroeconomic data from the UK and the US, as well as diverging policy expectations; traders need to remain cautious.
In the UK, the employment report will be released this Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. These two data points will directly impact the Bank of England's monetary policy outlook.
The market widely expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in March, so data performance will be an important trigger for short-term fluctuations in the pound.
Meanwhile, the US will release the Federal Reserve FOMC minutes this Wednesday, and investors will pay attention to the Fed's future interest rate cut path to judge the dollar's trend and affect GBP/USD.
The US January CPI data released last Friday showed that inflation was softening, and market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June have increased. Bets on at least two rate cuts in 2026 have already been priced into the dollar, which is putting pressure on the safe-haven dollar.
Recent uncertainty in the UK has eased somewhat, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer securing support from the cabinet and Labour MPs, which has stabilized the pound to some extent. Consequently, the market is cautious about further depreciation of GBP/USD, and the downside potential in the short term may be limited.
Next weekend, UK retail sales data and the UK and US Lightning Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be released, potentially providing additional opportunities for short-term trading. Overall, GBP/USD is expected to remain range-bound in the short term, with close attention focused on macroeconomic data and policy signals.
The daily chart shows that GBP/USD is maintaining a range of 1.3570-1.3620, with short-term moving averages arranged horizontally, indicating a lack of clear market trend.
The 20-day moving average is providing initial support around 1.3585. If the price breaks below this level, 1.3550 and 1.3520 will become key downside levels to watch. The 4-hour chart shows GBP/USD fluctuating around 1.3590, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) remaining around 50.
Short-term momentum is neutral. Upward resistance levels to watch are 1.3620 and 1.3650; a break above these levels could open up short-term bullish opportunities. Downward support levels are 1.3570 and 1.3550.
Editor's Note:
Short-term fluctuations in the pound are constrained by conflicting expectations regarding UK and US policy and macroeconomic data. Current fundamentals suggest that UK employment and inflation data may guide the direction of the BoE policy, while expectations of US interest rate cuts are limiting the dollar's upward movement.
Overall, GBP/USD is expected to trade within a narrow range in the short term, and the bullish trend needs to be confirmed by clear data and policy signals.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
