The US and Iran clashed on Tuesday, leaving the gold market holding its breath!
2026-02-16 21:42:19
On Monday (February 16), during the European and American trading sessions, spot gold rebounded slightly after hitting a low, holding onto most of the gains from last Friday.
According to media reports, US President Trump has made it clear that if the US-Iran nuclear negotiations ultimately break down, he will support Israel in striking Iran's ballistic missile program.
This statement was first made by Trump during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago last December, directly exacerbating the uncertainty in the Middle East and injecting strong upward expectations into gold, a traditional safe-haven asset.
The second round of US-Iran nuclear talks will officially begin in Geneva on Tuesday, and its outcome will be a key anchor for short-term market risk appetite, directly influencing gold price movements.
The U.S. has finalized its core negotiating team, with Special Envoy Steve Vitkov and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner attending together. This high-profile lineup highlights the importance the U.S. attaches to this issue and also suggests that the negotiations involve a core interest game. The market needs to pay close attention to the points of contention and progress signals between the two sides.
Further reports revealed that U.S. military and intelligence officials had already consulted in advance on assisting potential Israeli military operations, planning to provide key logistical support such as aerial refueling and coordinating overflight permits with regional countries.
The continued escalation of expectations for military intervention has significantly boosted market risk aversion, increasing investor demand for gold and becoming a key driver of gold price increases.
However, the regional situation is not a one-way escalation; there are multiple constraining variables.
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have publicly stated their positions, neither allowing their airspace to be used for attacks against Iran nor permitting Iran to use it as a transit route for cross-border attacks. The divergent attitudes of regional countries have increased the complexity of the situation.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Rubio also expressed a preference for resolving tensions through diplomatic means. The interplay between diplomatic and military approaches has increased the difficulty of market pricing and added uncertainty to gold price trends.
The gold market is currently at a critical juncture, and any slight development in the US-Iran negotiations could trigger sharp fluctuations in gold prices.
In the short term, geopolitical risks have replaced other factors as the core driving force behind gold prices: once negotiations break down and military risks escalate, gold will quickly attract safe-haven funds and experience a significant price increase; if negotiations make a breakthrough and safe-haven sentiment cools down, gold prices may experience a temporary decline.
The Geneva negotiations need to be closely monitored, as the battle between gold bulls and bears will intensify, and changes in geopolitical premiums will dominate short-term market trends.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 21:41 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,994 per ounce.
According to media reports, US President Trump has made it clear that if the US-Iran nuclear negotiations ultimately break down, he will support Israel in striking Iran's ballistic missile program.
This statement was first made by Trump during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago last December, directly exacerbating the uncertainty in the Middle East and injecting strong upward expectations into gold, a traditional safe-haven asset.
Key points to watch in the negotiations: Team lineup and progress will dominate short-term gold price fluctuations.
The second round of US-Iran nuclear talks will officially begin in Geneva on Tuesday, and its outcome will be a key anchor for short-term market risk appetite, directly influencing gold price movements.
The U.S. has finalized its core negotiating team, with Special Envoy Steve Vitkov and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner attending together. This high-profile lineup highlights the importance the U.S. attaches to this issue and also suggests that the negotiations involve a core interest game. The market needs to pay close attention to the points of contention and progress signals between the two sides.
Military action anticipated: US preparations intensify safe-haven buying.
Further reports revealed that U.S. military and intelligence officials had already consulted in advance on assisting potential Israeli military operations, planning to provide key logistical support such as aerial refueling and coordinating overflight permits with regional countries.
The continued escalation of expectations for military intervention has significantly boosted market risk aversion, increasing investor demand for gold and becoming a key driver of gold price increases.
Constraints on the situation: Increased uncertainty in the trend due to multi-party competition
However, the regional situation is not a one-way escalation; there are multiple constraining variables.
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have publicly stated their positions, neither allowing their airspace to be used for attacks against Iran nor permitting Iran to use it as a transit route for cross-border attacks. The divergent attitudes of regional countries have increased the complexity of the situation.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Rubio also expressed a preference for resolving tensions through diplomatic means. The interplay between diplomatic and military approaches has increased the difficulty of market pricing and added uncertainty to gold price trends.
Gold Market Outlook: Negotiation Process Becomes Key to Bull-Bear Battle
The gold market is currently at a critical juncture, and any slight development in the US-Iran negotiations could trigger sharp fluctuations in gold prices.
In the short term, geopolitical risks have replaced other factors as the core driving force behind gold prices: once negotiations break down and military risks escalate, gold will quickly attract safe-haven funds and experience a significant price increase; if negotiations make a breakthrough and safe-haven sentiment cools down, gold prices may experience a temporary decline.
The Geneva negotiations need to be closely monitored, as the battle between gold bulls and bears will intensify, and changes in geopolitical premiums will dominate short-term market trends.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
At 21:41 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,994 per ounce.
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