Silver Forecast: Will the Fed meeting minutes and PCE data trigger a rebound or a new round of selling?
2026-02-16 21:59:22
On Monday (February 16th) during the US session, spot silver exhibited a clear pattern of "initial decline followed by a rebound and consolidation." In the early morning session (07:30-13:00), prices initially surged to approximately 77.117, then encountered significant selling pressure, falling sharply to around 74.666. This period of large fluctuations reflected intense disagreement between bulls and bears, with market sentiment shifting rapidly from optimism to panic. In the afternoon and evening sessions (13:00-22:00), prices gradually stabilized and rebounded from the lows, regaining the intraday moving average of 76.365. Overall, after the sharp fluctuations in the morning, market sentiment is gradually returning to rationality, and bullish momentum is gradually building. However, the subsequent price movement still requires close monitoring of key price levels for breakouts and support.
Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy becomes the focus of the market.
Judging from last week's price action, the economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy are the most pressing issues for silver traders.
Previous comments about excessive speculation, speculative bubbles, and higher trading margin requirements are still being digested by the market, and the wide fluctuations are a reflection of this process.
However, if the price is clearly broken below $64.06, selling pressure may continue to mount until it reaches the 52-week moving average of $48.07.
Employment and inflation data release mixed signals
Last week, the market focused on the US non-farm payroll data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Despite data pushing down the 10-year US Treasury yield and the dollar, silver remained weak.
The data contains factors that are unsettling for silver traders, and are likely related to expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.
The latest January non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, exceeding economists' expectations.
This in itself has a limited impact on the market, because Federal Reserve Chairman Powell had already hinted at his January press conference that he was more concerned about inflation than the job market.
However, the number of new cases this time is almost twice the expected value, which is undoubtedly a negative signal for silver bulls who are betting on two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
In addition, the overall CPI data was lower than expected, but the core CPI remained resilient.
The combination of these factors has reignited uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy, which will likely suppress silver prices, but is not enough to trigger a sharp drop.
PCE inflation data may become a watershed moment for market trends.
Market focus has shifted to this week's key data releases: the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, preliminary GDP figures, and PCE inflation data, with PCE having the greatest impact on silver.
Although the CPI data was relatively mild, the PCE is an inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve takes into account.
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
By combining the FOMC meeting minutes, silver traders can expect to obtain sufficiently clear economic and policy signals.
If the PCE index exceeds expectations, silver will likely face a new round of selling. The market is already fragile after the bursting of the speculative bubble, and the current bias is bearish.
Even with weak PCE data, it will be difficult to completely reverse market sentiment.
Conversely, strong inflation data could push silver prices toward their "true value," which is currently at the 52-week moving average of $48.07.
Uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy becomes the focus of the market.
Judging from last week's price action, the economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy are the most pressing issues for silver traders.
Previous comments about excessive speculation, speculative bubbles, and higher trading margin requirements are still being digested by the market, and the wide fluctuations are a reflection of this process.
However, if the price is clearly broken below $64.06, selling pressure may continue to mount until it reaches the 52-week moving average of $48.07.
Employment and inflation data release mixed signals
Last week, the market focused on the US non-farm payroll data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Despite data pushing down the 10-year US Treasury yield and the dollar, silver remained weak.
The data contains factors that are unsettling for silver traders, and are likely related to expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.
The latest January non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, exceeding economists' expectations.
This in itself has a limited impact on the market, because Federal Reserve Chairman Powell had already hinted at his January press conference that he was more concerned about inflation than the job market.
However, the number of new cases this time is almost twice the expected value, which is undoubtedly a negative signal for silver bulls who are betting on two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
In addition, the overall CPI data was lower than expected, but the core CPI remained resilient.
The combination of these factors has reignited uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy, which will likely suppress silver prices, but is not enough to trigger a sharp drop.
PCE inflation data may become a watershed moment for market trends.
Market focus has shifted to this week's key data releases: the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, preliminary GDP figures, and PCE inflation data, with PCE having the greatest impact on silver.
Although the CPI data was relatively mild, the PCE is an inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve takes into account.
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
By combining the FOMC meeting minutes, silver traders can expect to obtain sufficiently clear economic and policy signals.
If the PCE index exceeds expectations, silver will likely face a new round of selling. The market is already fragile after the bursting of the speculative bubble, and the current bias is bearish.
Even with weak PCE data, it will be difficult to completely reverse market sentiment.
Conversely, strong inflation data could push silver prices toward their "true value," which is currently at the 52-week moving average of $48.07.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
