Russian officials are scheduled to hold trilateral talks with the US, Ukraine, and Russia in Geneva, Switzerland, from February 17 to 18, and the market believes that the trilateral talks are unlikely to deviate from their original demands.

Russia may use a temporary ceasefire on energy infrastructure, while simultaneously preparing for a larger-scale strike, as leverage in negotiations.

Russia has invested in several drone technology centers and established dedicated units to support drone capability development, while the Kremlin appears to be adjusting its strategy in Europe.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's resistance and the FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile strike on Russia's Kapustin Yar launch site in January 2025 caused no damage.

Russia's position at the Geneva trilateral talks

Russian Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky will lead the Russian delegation to the Geneva talks. The delegation also includes Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin and Vladimir Kostyukov, First Deputy Director of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Federation.

Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, will participate in the working group on economic cooperation.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that the Kremlin has instructed the delegation to act within the framework agreed upon by Putin and Trump at the Alaska summit in August 2025.

Russia's temporary ceasefire strategy for energy infrastructure

Rustem Umerov, secretary of the Ukrainian Defense Council, said that Ukraine will raise the issue of a temporary ceasefire on energy targets during the Geneva talks.

Russia implemented temporary ceasefires from March to April 2025 and from January to February 2026, but resumed drone and missile strikes after the ceasefires ended.

Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that the Russian strikes have damaged all of Ukraine's power plants, and Ukraine may face major power problems again during future ceasefires.

Former head of the Russian Space Agency, Dmitry Rogozin, stated that the BARS-Sarmat Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems Special Purpose Center is expanding its specialized roles and combat units.

The center is a key research and development organization that develops and tests hardware and operational concepts, and then disseminates new technologies and drone tactics more widely to the Russian drone forces.

Markets choose to remain on the sidelines before major geopolitical events.

As a result, spot gold bulls are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, partly due to the upcoming US-Iran talks scheduled for tonight.

On the other hand, there is the trilateral talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Talks are better than fighting. The market has priced in the easing of geopolitical risks resulting from the talks in advance. Currently, spot gold has rebounded slightly after hitting a low, and is trading at 4917, a drop of -1.51%.


(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)

At 21:38 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4,916 per ounce.