Stealth fighters on standby in the Middle East! The extreme rivalry between the US and Iran.
2026-02-18 15:18:56
The current standoff between the US and Iran over their nuclear programs has entered a critical phase, with the two sides holding indirect negotiations in Geneva. Meanwhile, the US is strengthening its military presence in the Middle East, leading to a significant increase in regional tensions.
Iran's proposal in this round of negotiations is similar to its demands in 2025, with the core being to freeze uranium enrichment and transfer highly enriched uranium in exchange for the lifting of financial sanctions.
Since 2025, the regional landscape has undergone significant changes, and Iran's strategic strength and bargaining power have been significantly weakened compared to before.
In June 2025, a joint US-Israeli military operation will strike Iranian nuclear facilities and air defense and missile systems, damaging Iran's nuclear capabilities and preventing it from conducting uranium enrichment normally for several months, with little prospect of recovery in the short term. The domestic situation in Iran will also affect its negotiating position; large-scale protests and crackdowns are expected to erupt at the end of 2025, impacting the regime's stability and providing more room for external intervention.
Analysts believe that the Iranian leadership is maintaining its previous negotiating stance, but without making substantial concessions, reaching an agreement will be significantly more difficult.
On February 17, the United States and Iran held their second round of indirect talks in Geneva, mediated by Oman. The U.S. delegation was led by a special envoy and Jared Kushner, while the Iranian delegation was led by its foreign minister.
U.S. officials said the talks had made some progress, and Iran said it would submit a detailed nuclear proposal within the next two weeks in an effort to narrow the differences between the two sides.
Both sides acknowledged that significant gaps remain on core issues and that a final agreement will require extensive negotiations.
In conjunction with the negotiations, the United States has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East. In the past 24 hours, the U.S. military has deployed more than 50 additional fighter jets to the Middle East, including F-16s, F-22s, and F-35s, to strengthen regional air deterrence.
On the naval front, the U.S. military dispatched the USS Ford to the Middle East, forming a dual-carrier configuration with the previously deployed USS Lincoln, further concentrating its naval and air power.
The US troop increase is seen as a move to put pressure on Iran and to reserve a military option in case negotiations fail.
The current US-Iran situation is characterized by a "talks-and-pressure" approach, with negotiations and military deterrence proceeding simultaneously. If Iran proposes a more conciliatory solution within two weeks, a breakthrough in the negotiations is possible.
If the positions remain deadlocked, the likelihood of the United States launching a military strike or supporting Israeli actions will increase.
Regional uncertainties continue to impact energy markets and the performance of global safe-haven assets.
Iran's negotiating stance and current situation
Iran's proposal in this round of negotiations is similar to its demands in 2025, with the core being to freeze uranium enrichment and transfer highly enriched uranium in exchange for the lifting of financial sanctions.
Since 2025, the regional landscape has undergone significant changes, and Iran's strategic strength and bargaining power have been significantly weakened compared to before.
In June 2025, a joint US-Israeli military operation will strike Iranian nuclear facilities and air defense and missile systems, damaging Iran's nuclear capabilities and preventing it from conducting uranium enrichment normally for several months, with little prospect of recovery in the short term. The domestic situation in Iran will also affect its negotiating position; large-scale protests and crackdowns are expected to erupt at the end of 2025, impacting the regime's stability and providing more room for external intervention.
Analysts believe that the Iranian leadership is maintaining its previous negotiating stance, but without making substantial concessions, reaching an agreement will be significantly more difficult.
Progress of Geneva negotiations
On February 17, the United States and Iran held their second round of indirect talks in Geneva, mediated by Oman. The U.S. delegation was led by a special envoy and Jared Kushner, while the Iranian delegation was led by its foreign minister.
U.S. officials said the talks had made some progress, and Iran said it would submit a detailed nuclear proposal within the next two weeks in an effort to narrow the differences between the two sides.
Both sides acknowledged that significant gaps remain on core issues and that a final agreement will require extensive negotiations.
US military deployment upgrades
In conjunction with the negotiations, the United States has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East. In the past 24 hours, the U.S. military has deployed more than 50 additional fighter jets to the Middle East, including F-16s, F-22s, and F-35s, to strengthen regional air deterrence.
On the naval front, the U.S. military dispatched the USS Ford to the Middle East, forming a dual-carrier configuration with the previously deployed USS Lincoln, further concentrating its naval and air power.
The US troop increase is seen as a move to put pressure on Iran and to reserve a military option in case negotiations fail.
Situation prospects
The current US-Iran situation is characterized by a "talks-and-pressure" approach, with negotiations and military deterrence proceeding simultaneously. If Iran proposes a more conciliatory solution within two weeks, a breakthrough in the negotiations is possible.
If the positions remain deadlocked, the likelihood of the United States launching a military strike or supporting Israeli actions will increase.
Regional uncertainties continue to impact energy markets and the performance of global safe-haven assets.
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