Just as the US and Iran reached an agreement, tensions arose again between Russia and Ukraine! With geopolitical risks shifting, where will gold prices go?
2026-02-18 20:50:12
On Wednesday (February 18), global market focus appeared to shift back to the geopolitical arena, with key talks in Geneva between the United States and Iran, and between Ukraine and Russia, becoming a hot topic of close attention for investors. These US-mediated negotiations are particularly noteworthy as the Russia-Ukraine conflict approaches its fourth year.
Gold prices rose during Wednesday's European session, currently trading around $4,920 an ounce, up about 0.85% on the day, influenced by lingering geopolitical risks between Russia and Ukraine.
The latest round of talks between Kyiv and Moscow began on Tuesday and entered its second (and final) day on Wednesday. Both sides described the discussions as "difficult but pragmatic" after the talks concluded, but no concrete agreement was reached.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately delaying the process, stating that significant differences remain on core political issues such as territorial sovereignty and the future of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. While some consensus has been reached on technical issues (such as the ceasefire monitoring mechanism), a comprehensive breakthrough remains a long way off.
Meanwhile, Russia launched a new round of attacks on Ukraine's power infrastructure on Tuesday, further highlighting the tense atmosphere surrounding the Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
In contrast, indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran have made more significant progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that the two sides have reached a general consensus on "guiding principles," which has temporarily eased market concerns about an immediate outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.
While more effort is still needed to completely resolve the long-standing nuclear dispute, this progress has injected some stability into the market and may limit the rise in gold prices.
Although the Russia-Ukraine negotiations have not yielded a breakthrough, the conflict itself continues. The two sides have huge differences on core political issues, and Russia has launched a new round of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, which reminds the market that geopolitical premiums have not been completely eliminated.
Relatively positive progress was made in the Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, with both sides reaching a consensus on "guiding principles." This has temporarily eased concerns about an immediate outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and is expected to limit the upside potential for gold prices.
In addition, Iran briefly closed a section of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world's oil shipments, citing "security precautions." Although brief, this event highlighted the risk of disruption to key shipping lanes, potentially providing support for safe-haven gold.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
UK inflation data has been released: the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-on-year in January, a slight decrease from 3.4% in the previous month, but in line with market expectations. This cooling provides further support for the Bank of England's potential interest rate cut in March.
Bayer's massive settlement: Monsanto, a division of German life sciences giant Bayer, announced a settlement worth up to $7.25 billion to resolve thousands of current and future lawsuits alleging that its Roundup herbicide causes cancer. The agreement, subject to court approval, will be funded by Bayer through 21 years of decreasing annual payments. Following the announcement, Bayer's stock price has been closely watched.
The market will continue to digest these geopolitical and macroeconomic signals on Wednesday, and volatility may increase. The market will then focus on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the US PCE data to be released this Friday, which may provide clues about the Fed's next moves and offer some guidance for gold prices.
At 20:33 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4920.09 per ounce.
Gold prices rose during Wednesday's European session, currently trading around $4,920 an ounce, up about 0.85% on the day, influenced by lingering geopolitical risks between Russia and Ukraine.
The Geneva talks between Russia and Ukraine are nearing their end, but progress has been limited.
The latest round of talks between Kyiv and Moscow began on Tuesday and entered its second (and final) day on Wednesday. Both sides described the discussions as "difficult but pragmatic" after the talks concluded, but no concrete agreement was reached.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately delaying the process, stating that significant differences remain on core political issues such as territorial sovereignty and the future of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. While some consensus has been reached on technical issues (such as the ceasefire monitoring mechanism), a comprehensive breakthrough remains a long way off.
Meanwhile, Russia launched a new round of attacks on Ukraine's power infrastructure on Tuesday, further highlighting the tense atmosphere surrounding the Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
US-Iran nuclear talks show relatively positive signs
In contrast, indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran have made more significant progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that the two sides have reached a general consensus on "guiding principles," which has temporarily eased market concerns about an immediate outbreak of conflict in the Middle East.
While more effort is still needed to completely resolve the long-standing nuclear dispute, this progress has injected some stability into the market and may limit the rise in gold prices.
The market reaction was mild, and gold prices rose slightly.
Although the Russia-Ukraine negotiations have not yielded a breakthrough, the conflict itself continues. The two sides have huge differences on core political issues, and Russia has launched a new round of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, which reminds the market that geopolitical premiums have not been completely eliminated.
Relatively positive progress was made in the Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, with both sides reaching a consensus on "guiding principles." This has temporarily eased concerns about an immediate outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and is expected to limit the upside potential for gold prices.
In addition, Iran briefly closed a section of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world's oil shipments, citing "security precautions." Although brief, this event highlighted the risk of disruption to key shipping lanes, potentially providing support for safe-haven gold.
(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)
Key Economic and Corporate Events
UK inflation data has been released: the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-on-year in January, a slight decrease from 3.4% in the previous month, but in line with market expectations. This cooling provides further support for the Bank of England's potential interest rate cut in March.
Bayer's massive settlement: Monsanto, a division of German life sciences giant Bayer, announced a settlement worth up to $7.25 billion to resolve thousands of current and future lawsuits alleging that its Roundup herbicide causes cancer. The agreement, subject to court approval, will be funded by Bayer through 21 years of decreasing annual payments. Following the announcement, Bayer's stock price has been closely watched.
The market will continue to digest these geopolitical and macroeconomic signals on Wednesday, and volatility may increase. The market will then focus on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the US PCE data to be released this Friday, which may provide clues about the Fed's next moves and offer some guidance for gold prices.
At 20:33 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $4920.09 per ounce.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
