Crude oil trading alert: Oil prices have slightly retreated; pay attention to short-term geopolitical developments.
2026-02-23 08:34:05
During Monday's Asian trading session, US crude oil prices fell slightly, trading around $65.86. After a bullish breakout, prices retraced, and are expected to continue their upward trend in the short term. Continued attention should be paid to whether the risk premium will rise further.
On the fundamental front, US President Trump stated that he is considering a "preliminary limited military strike" against Iran to force Iran to accept US conditions on the nuclear agreement.
He made the remarks before having breakfast with governors at the White House, but did not disclose specific details. The day before, Trump had stated that whether a deal was reached between the US and Iran would be decided "in the next ten days or so," setting a 10- to 15-day timeframe.
Iran was demanded to reach a "meaningful agreement," or "bad things" would happen. If the plan is approved, the first round of strikes could be carried out in the coming days, targeting military or government facilities.
If Iran refuses to halt its uranium enrichment activities, the US may expand its operations. Iran, however, emphasizes diplomatic channels. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that there is no military solution to the peaceful nuclear program, and the only way forward is through negotiations.
He revealed that Iran will finalize a draft agreement within the next three days and submit it to the US for discussion after approval. He pointed out that Iran and the US had previously reached a certain consensus on several guiding principles and the framework of the agreement during the Geneva negotiations.
Meanwhile, Israel Defense Forces spokesman Devlin said the military is on high alert and closely monitoring the situation, but has not yet adjusted its defense guidelines for the public.
Despite escalating geopolitical tensions, oil prices have not accelerated upwards, with the market clearly waiting for further clarity rather than prematurely pricing in a significant risk premium.
From a daily chart perspective, WTI is currently fluctuating within the $65-$67 range, with the $66 level forming a short-term support/resistance level. The moving average system is flattening, indicating that the trend direction is still unclear.
If the situation escalates and oil prices break through the $67.50 resistance level, it could open up upward potential, targeting the $70 mark; conversely, if diplomatic progress is smooth and prices fall below the $65 support level, they could retest the $62-$63 area.
The current technical pattern of oil prices is closer to an event-driven oscillating structure, and the direction will depend on news catalysts.
Editor's Note:
The market is currently in a phase of "high risk, low volatility." The stable oil price performance does not necessarily indicate a reduction in risk, but rather that the market is awaiting a clear catalyst.
The progress of the draft Iran deal over the next three days, and the direction of negotiations over the next ten days, will determine whether oil prices will re-induce a higher risk premium. If the diplomatic window closes, oil prices may surge rapidly; if a breakthrough is achieved, the risk premium may be quickly reversed.
On the fundamental front, US President Trump stated that he is considering a "preliminary limited military strike" against Iran to force Iran to accept US conditions on the nuclear agreement.
He made the remarks before having breakfast with governors at the White House, but did not disclose specific details. The day before, Trump had stated that whether a deal was reached between the US and Iran would be decided "in the next ten days or so," setting a 10- to 15-day timeframe.
Iran was demanded to reach a "meaningful agreement," or "bad things" would happen. If the plan is approved, the first round of strikes could be carried out in the coming days, targeting military or government facilities.
If Iran refuses to halt its uranium enrichment activities, the US may expand its operations. Iran, however, emphasizes diplomatic channels. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that there is no military solution to the peaceful nuclear program, and the only way forward is through negotiations.
He revealed that Iran will finalize a draft agreement within the next three days and submit it to the US for discussion after approval. He pointed out that Iran and the US had previously reached a certain consensus on several guiding principles and the framework of the agreement during the Geneva negotiations.
Meanwhile, Israel Defense Forces spokesman Devlin said the military is on high alert and closely monitoring the situation, but has not yet adjusted its defense guidelines for the public.
Despite escalating geopolitical tensions, oil prices have not accelerated upwards, with the market clearly waiting for further clarity rather than prematurely pricing in a significant risk premium.
From a daily chart perspective, WTI is currently fluctuating within the $65-$67 range, with the $66 level forming a short-term support/resistance level. The moving average system is flattening, indicating that the trend direction is still unclear.
If the situation escalates and oil prices break through the $67.50 resistance level, it could open up upward potential, targeting the $70 mark; conversely, if diplomatic progress is smooth and prices fall below the $65 support level, they could retest the $62-$63 area.
The current technical pattern of oil prices is closer to an event-driven oscillating structure, and the direction will depend on news catalysts.
Editor's Note:
The market is currently in a phase of "high risk, low volatility." The stable oil price performance does not necessarily indicate a reduction in risk, but rather that the market is awaiting a clear catalyst.
The progress of the draft Iran deal over the next three days, and the direction of negotiations over the next ten days, will determine whether oil prices will re-induce a higher risk premium. If the diplomatic window closes, oil prices may surge rapidly; if a breakthrough is achieved, the risk premium may be quickly reversed.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
