Silver Forecast: Escalating Risks in Iran Push Silver Higher, But How Long Can the Rally Last?
2026-02-24 01:06:30
Last week, spot silver rebounded strongly, not only confirming support in the $74.99–$74.63 range but also breaking through the minor resistance level of $83.61.
This also gives the market the conditions to challenge the most important area on the chart – $92.87–$99.66, or the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement range.
If the market fails to break through this area, it remains in the top structure of an elongated pattern.
Traders are beginning to recognize value, but the $83.61 support level is the real buying signal.
The fact that traders have been buying near the support level over the past two weeks is crucial, as it usually means that funds are beginning to recognize the current value.
Last Friday, there was even active buying to absorb the selling pressure, which was particularly positive.
Ideally, the market could establish a support level at $83.61 this week before attempting to break through $92.87, as this would indicate genuine buying interest rather than simply short covering.
In other words, a break above $83.61 is positive, but a stronger signal would be if higher support were established above that price level before further gains.
Geopolitics is the main driver: Tensions over Iran compounded by Trump's impending military deadline.
The core factor driving the short-term bullish trend and price volatility is mainly geopolitical risk, while tariff-related uncertainties have a relatively small impact.
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is quite clear: early last week, news indicated that negotiations between the United States and Iran had run into problems, and Trump gave a 10-15 day window during which the US Navy might launch an attack.
The Supreme Court's tariff ruling remains uncertain, and its impact on silver has been exaggerated.
The Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs and the additional 15% tariff remains pending.
Last year, the market had been speculating about a sharp rise in inflation ahead of Trump's tariffs in April 2025.
Similar arguments resurfaced last Friday.
I believe that the tariff ruling and the new tariff policy themselves will not have a lasting impact on silver prices; even if they do, it will only be reflected in the transmission of the Federal Reserve's policies.
The Truth Behind Analyst Opinions: The Correlation Between Tariffs and Silver Is Unfounded
Today's market action is a prime example of how traders view the relationship between tariffs and silver: while silver prices have indeed risen, some analysts attribute this to tariff uncertainty.
Frankly, I don't understand this logic.
If they interpret it as the Supreme Court's tariff ruling and Trump's additional 15% tariffs having a positive or negative impact on the Federal Reserve's policy, I can understand it.
The probability of a Fed rate cut in June is less than 50%, which is not a significant positive for silver.
Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 45.4% probability of a rate cut in June.
With a probability of less than 50%, this is not a clear bullish signal for silver.
Conclusion: The core driver is the situation in Iran; the outcome will be clear on Thursday or Friday.
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
Tariffs are not a positive factor driving up silver prices, nor is the probability of a Fed rate cut a key factor.
Therefore, I believe that the core of this round of price increases is the geopolitical situation between the United States and Iran.
By Thursday or Friday, the market will have a clear picture: will a new nuclear agreement be reached, or is war about to break out?
This also gives the market the conditions to challenge the most important area on the chart – $92.87–$99.66, or the 50%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement range.
If the market fails to break through this area, it remains in the top structure of an elongated pattern.
Traders are beginning to recognize value, but the $83.61 support level is the real buying signal.
The fact that traders have been buying near the support level over the past two weeks is crucial, as it usually means that funds are beginning to recognize the current value.
Last Friday, there was even active buying to absorb the selling pressure, which was particularly positive.
Ideally, the market could establish a support level at $83.61 this week before attempting to break through $92.87, as this would indicate genuine buying interest rather than simply short covering.
In other words, a break above $83.61 is positive, but a stronger signal would be if higher support were established above that price level before further gains.
Geopolitics is the main driver: Tensions over Iran compounded by Trump's impending military deadline.
The core factor driving the short-term bullish trend and price volatility is mainly geopolitical risk, while tariff-related uncertainties have a relatively small impact.
The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is quite clear: early last week, news indicated that negotiations between the United States and Iran had run into problems, and Trump gave a 10-15 day window during which the US Navy might launch an attack.
The Supreme Court's tariff ruling remains uncertain, and its impact on silver has been exaggerated.
The Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs and the additional 15% tariff remains pending.
Last year, the market had been speculating about a sharp rise in inflation ahead of Trump's tariffs in April 2025.
Similar arguments resurfaced last Friday.
I believe that the tariff ruling and the new tariff policy themselves will not have a lasting impact on silver prices; even if they do, it will only be reflected in the transmission of the Federal Reserve's policies.
The Truth Behind Analyst Opinions: The Correlation Between Tariffs and Silver Is Unfounded
Today's market action is a prime example of how traders view the relationship between tariffs and silver: while silver prices have indeed risen, some analysts attribute this to tariff uncertainty.
Frankly, I don't understand this logic.
If they interpret it as the Supreme Court's tariff ruling and Trump's additional 15% tariffs having a positive or negative impact on the Federal Reserve's policy, I can understand it.
The probability of a Fed rate cut in June is less than 50%, which is not a significant positive for silver.
Currently, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 45.4% probability of a rate cut in June.
With a probability of less than 50%, this is not a clear bullish signal for silver.
Conclusion: The core driver is the situation in Iran; the outcome will be clear on Thursday or Friday.
(Spot silver daily chart source: EasyTrade)
Tariffs are not a positive factor driving up silver prices, nor is the probability of a Fed rate cut a key factor.
Therefore, I believe that the core of this round of price increases is the geopolitical situation between the United States and Iran.
By Thursday or Friday, the market will have a clear picture: will a new nuclear agreement be reached, or is war about to break out?
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
