Fund manager: The driving factors for the long-term upward trend in gold and silver still exist.
2026-02-24 11:17:53
Gold prices briefly surpassed $5,200 per ounce and silver prices briefly exceeded $88 per ounce on Tuesday (February 24) as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed the price of precious metals above $5,200 per ounce. The ups and downs of geopolitical uncertainty continue to bring unprecedented volatility to the precious metals market.
But one fund manager warned investors to avoid the noise and focus on the broader fundamentals driving the long-term uptrend.
In her latest commentary, Jen Bawden, founder and CEO of Bawden Capital, stated that she believes US President Trump's threats against Iran are part of his broader negotiating strategy, and that she thinks these threats are unlikely to escalate.
Despite escalating tensions, U.S. and Iranian negotiators are reportedly set to meet in Geneva on Thursday to try to find a solution that avoids military conflict.
Bawden stated, "If the two sides shake hands in Geneva, or achieve a breakthrough in the Middle East, 'secure trade' will crumble with the force of the hurricane. But the secret is this: once the fear of war dissipates and the political risk premium forces gold and silver down, the market will realize a cold, brutal reality. Even in a peaceful world, there isn't enough silver to drive AI data centers, global solar energy, and the next generation of defense industries."
She anticipates that a pullback in silver prices following the events in Iran could push silver prices up to $50 per ounce.
She said, "When headlines come in, I don't get caught up in the noise or panic. I'm waiting for the 'auction of the century' because I know who's waiting on the other side of the world."
Bawden argues that several fundamental factors continue to support rising prices. First, physical shortages remain a strong structural driver , as the world has consumed more silver than it has mined for six consecutive years. Meanwhile, the US debt-to-GDP ratio continues to soar, and neither party has shown any willingness to implement meaningful austerity measures, making inflation (effectively a hidden tax) the most likely path forward.
She also predicts that the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure and high-voltage data centers will drive demand for silver , both of which require large amounts of silver to achieve their unparalleled conductivity, while uranium will be needed to power energy-intensive systems to support the digital economy.
Finally, increasing pressures in the financial system (particularly with commercial real estate loan resets and regional banks facing market capitalization pressures) have increased the risk of a credit crunch, which could force investors to return to hard assets without counterparty risk.
Meanwhile, Bawden stated that she anticipates a 40% correction in the junior silver exploration sector. She added that she will be seeking to acquire projects in North America during this adjustment period.
Bawden added that she expects demand to emerge in Asia when investors return to the market after the Lunar New Year holidays.
However, she noted that if a wider conflict erupts in the Middle East, gold prices could quickly return to $5,500 per ounce, while silver prices could return to last month's high of around $120 per ounce. She also indicated that she would seek to take profits during such a rally.
She said, "If the US goes to war with Iran, and silver tests its highs, I will sell my silver stocks to take profits when silver reaches $100 to $125. I will also sell my uranium portfolio because the possibility of deflation from de-dollarized trade is unprecedented."
Spot silver daily chart source: EasyForex
At 11:17 AM Beijing time on February 24, spot silver was trading at $87.43 per ounce.
But one fund manager warned investors to avoid the noise and focus on the broader fundamentals driving the long-term uptrend.
In her latest commentary, Jen Bawden, founder and CEO of Bawden Capital, stated that she believes US President Trump's threats against Iran are part of his broader negotiating strategy, and that she thinks these threats are unlikely to escalate.
Despite escalating tensions, U.S. and Iranian negotiators are reportedly set to meet in Geneva on Thursday to try to find a solution that avoids military conflict.
Bawden stated, "If the two sides shake hands in Geneva, or achieve a breakthrough in the Middle East, 'secure trade' will crumble with the force of the hurricane. But the secret is this: once the fear of war dissipates and the political risk premium forces gold and silver down, the market will realize a cold, brutal reality. Even in a peaceful world, there isn't enough silver to drive AI data centers, global solar energy, and the next generation of defense industries."
She anticipates that a pullback in silver prices following the events in Iran could push silver prices up to $50 per ounce.
She said, "When headlines come in, I don't get caught up in the noise or panic. I'm waiting for the 'auction of the century' because I know who's waiting on the other side of the world."
Bawden argues that several fundamental factors continue to support rising prices. First, physical shortages remain a strong structural driver , as the world has consumed more silver than it has mined for six consecutive years. Meanwhile, the US debt-to-GDP ratio continues to soar, and neither party has shown any willingness to implement meaningful austerity measures, making inflation (effectively a hidden tax) the most likely path forward.
She also predicts that the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure and high-voltage data centers will drive demand for silver , both of which require large amounts of silver to achieve their unparalleled conductivity, while uranium will be needed to power energy-intensive systems to support the digital economy.
Finally, increasing pressures in the financial system (particularly with commercial real estate loan resets and regional banks facing market capitalization pressures) have increased the risk of a credit crunch, which could force investors to return to hard assets without counterparty risk.
Meanwhile, Bawden stated that she anticipates a 40% correction in the junior silver exploration sector. She added that she will be seeking to acquire projects in North America during this adjustment period.
Bawden added that she expects demand to emerge in Asia when investors return to the market after the Lunar New Year holidays.
However, she noted that if a wider conflict erupts in the Middle East, gold prices could quickly return to $5,500 per ounce, while silver prices could return to last month's high of around $120 per ounce. She also indicated that she would seek to take profits during such a rally.
She said, "If the US goes to war with Iran, and silver tests its highs, I will sell my silver stocks to take profits when silver reaches $100 to $125. I will also sell my uranium portfolio because the possibility of deflation from de-dollarized trade is unprecedented."
Spot silver daily chart source: EasyForex
At 11:17 AM Beijing time on February 24, spot silver was trading at $87.43 per ounce.
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