Geopolitical risks and a weak dollar combined to drive gold prices higher again.
2026-02-25 13:32:46
Gold prices rose slightly during Asian trading hours, but remained below the $5,200 level. The current rise in gold is mainly driven by two factors: geopolitical risk premiums and a temporary weakening of the US dollar. Escalating military deployments in the Middle East, coupled with renewed concerns about escalating conflict ahead of US-Iran nuclear negotiations, have boosted demand for safe-haven assets.
Meanwhile, the dollar index is under pressure, making dollar-denominated gold relatively more attractive. From a monetary policy perspective, the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance. Recent meeting minutes show that most officials believe it is not advisable to cut interest rates rapidly before inflation has clearly subsided.
Federal Reserve officials indicated that the current monetary policy range remains stable, which to some extent limits the potential for rapid gold price increases. However, the market has strong concerns about US trade policy. The US has already imposed a 10% tariff on most imported goods and plans to further increase it to 15%.
Trade frictions could trigger supply chain disruptions and expectations of slower economic growth, typically increasing demand for safe-haven assets and thus supporting gold. Overall, gold is currently in a balance between macroeconomic bullishness and risk appetite volatility; the upward trend remains intact, but the pace of increase has slowed.
Gold's daily and 4-hour charts maintain an uptrend. A significant support zone has formed above $5100, indicating relatively solid bullish defense. The key price action currently is characterized by slowing upward momentum, but no trend reversal signals have emerged.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 62, indicating that the market remains in a strong range but has not yet entered an overbought state. The MACD indicator's positive momentum is gradually contracting, suggesting that the market has entered a high-level consolidation phase rather than a trend top structure.
The immediate resistance level is around $5220. A break above this level could lead to a further test of the $52460 area. On the downside, the first support level to watch is $5150. A break below this level could lead to a pullback to the $5100 psychological level. A further drop below $5100 could see support around $5050.
Furthermore, gold remains above its long-term moving average system. The 200-period moving average, located around $4,930, forms a significant support line for the medium-term uptrend, indicating that the medium-term trend remains bullish.
Editor's Note:
The current gold market is essentially a reflection of the pricing logic of macroeconomic risk assets. Geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties are reshaping the market risk premium structure, rather than simply relying on interest rate movements. The pace of gold's rise may slow in the short term, but the overall trend remains intact.
Whether gold can open up further upside potential depends on two key variables: first, whether geopolitical conflicts escalate substantially; and second, whether the Federal Reserve releases clearer signals of easing policies. If both occur simultaneously, gold may accelerate its upward movement.
Meanwhile, the dollar index is under pressure, making dollar-denominated gold relatively more attractive. From a monetary policy perspective, the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance. Recent meeting minutes show that most officials believe it is not advisable to cut interest rates rapidly before inflation has clearly subsided.
Federal Reserve officials indicated that the current monetary policy range remains stable, which to some extent limits the potential for rapid gold price increases. However, the market has strong concerns about US trade policy. The US has already imposed a 10% tariff on most imported goods and plans to further increase it to 15%.
Trade frictions could trigger supply chain disruptions and expectations of slower economic growth, typically increasing demand for safe-haven assets and thus supporting gold. Overall, gold is currently in a balance between macroeconomic bullishness and risk appetite volatility; the upward trend remains intact, but the pace of increase has slowed.
Gold's daily and 4-hour charts maintain an uptrend. A significant support zone has formed above $5100, indicating relatively solid bullish defense. The key price action currently is characterized by slowing upward momentum, but no trend reversal signals have emerged.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 62, indicating that the market remains in a strong range but has not yet entered an overbought state. The MACD indicator's positive momentum is gradually contracting, suggesting that the market has entered a high-level consolidation phase rather than a trend top structure.
The immediate resistance level is around $5220. A break above this level could lead to a further test of the $52460 area. On the downside, the first support level to watch is $5150. A break below this level could lead to a pullback to the $5100 psychological level. A further drop below $5100 could see support around $5050.
Furthermore, gold remains above its long-term moving average system. The 200-period moving average, located around $4,930, forms a significant support line for the medium-term uptrend, indicating that the medium-term trend remains bullish.
Editor's Note:
The current gold market is essentially a reflection of the pricing logic of macroeconomic risk assets. Geopolitical risks and trade policy uncertainties are reshaping the market risk premium structure, rather than simply relying on interest rate movements. The pace of gold's rise may slow in the short term, but the overall trend remains intact.
Whether gold can open up further upside potential depends on two key variables: first, whether geopolitical conflicts escalate substantially; and second, whether the Federal Reserve releases clearer signals of easing policies. If both occur simultaneously, gold may accelerate its upward movement.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
