U.S. President Donald Trump's State of the Union address on Wednesday (February 25) set a new record for the longest address in history, lasting nearly 1 hour and 48 minutes. This speech is defined less by what he said and more by what he deliberately avoided. The following examines this speech and its potential impact on the November midterm elections from several key dimensions.

Rare restraint: avoiding a self-destructive mistake

Trump displayed unusual discipline this time: he did not attack the Supreme Court (despite his previous public opposition to the tariff ruling); he did not name dissidents within his party; and he did not engage in any off-the-cuff angry rants or lengthy impromptu speeches.

An anonymous senior Republican strategist commented: "At least he didn't create new political wounds. The dilemma Republicans faced on Wednesday was almost exactly the same as it was before Tuesday."

For some party members who are well aware of Trump's "ability to hurt himself," this "no mistakes" is a victory in itself.

The core pain points were deliberately avoided: housing, healthcare, and Iran offered nothing new.

However, maintaining the status quo will not help the Republican Party's midterm election prospects. Almost all of the issues that voters care about most have been downplayed:

Housing affordability: No new policies were introduced, only general calls to restrict private equity firms from purchasing single-family homes;

Healthcare and prescription drug costs: Only existing Trump prescription drug price reduction measures are mentioned, without proposing systemic reforms;

Iran and the Middle East situation: The US military is making a large-scale buildup, but has not given any clear policy direction;

The Epstein scandal: an explosive topic that has captivated Washington politics and national public opinion, yet has been completely ignored.

Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist who worked during Trump's first term, bluntly stated: "It was a patriotic and inspiring performance, but at the policy level, it didn't offer the Republican Party any guidance that would make the midterm elections safer."

Two voices within the party: fervent supporters vs. concerns of market manipulators.

The Republican Party is deeply divided on the speech:

Supporters (represented by Steve Bannon): "Tonight changed the game. The president is no longer pandering to supposedly persuading voters, but is instead leading strongly forward—the game has officially begun!"

Anxious voice (anonymous senior trader): "The speeches are all about reminiscing about past glories, but lack concrete steps for the future. We need more actionable solutions that can directly help those who are suffering."

Economic narratives remain the main theme, but their persuasiveness is limited.

Trump repeatedly emphasized that tariffs brought "hundreds of billions of dollars" in benefits; prevented wars; prices are falling; and "we've won so much that we don't know what to do."

He continued to blame the Democrats entirely for inflation: "You created high prices, and our policies are rapidly ending them."

However, with approval ratings hovering around 40% for a long time and voters' dissatisfaction with the cost of living continuing to accumulate, this narrative of "it's all someone else's fault" is unlikely to completely change voters' perceptions.

On-site conflict and a high-profile ending: a further upgrade to the revolutionary narrative

A heated confrontation erupted when Trump criticized Democrats for “obstructing” immigration enforcement funding.

Representative Ilhan Omar shouted, "You killed Americans!"

Trump retorted: "These people are crazy, they're just crazy."

At the end of his speech, Trump likened the dramatic changes of his second term to a modern version of the 1776 Revolution, exclaiming:

"The golden age of America has arrived. The revolution that began in 1776 has never ended... Our future will be bigger, better, brighter, bolder, and more glorious than ever before."

Market Impact Analysis

The speech exacerbated political polarization, highlighted the government's inability to address livelihood issues, shook the foundations of confidence in the US dollar, and is expected to attract funds seeking political safe havens to flow into gold. During Thursday's Asian trading session, the US dollar index continued its decline from the previous trading day, currently trading around 97.50, down approximately 0.15% on the day; spot gold fluctuated upwards, continuing its gains from the previous trading day, currently trading around $5190 per ounce, up approximately 0.5% on the day.



(Spot gold daily chart, source: FX678)

In conclusion , for a president desperately needing to reshape his narrative and alleviate voter discontent over economic and social divisions before the midterm elections, this State of the Union address successfully avoided a catastrophic misstep, but also missed the opportunity to offer a substantial "self-help solution." Those deliberately avoided pain points—the housing crisis, healthcare burden, diplomatic uncertainty, and immigration enforcement controversies—are likely to become the Democrats' sharpest weapons in the coming months and ultimately leave a decisive mark on the November 2026 vote.

At 10:28 Beijing time, spot gold was trading at $5,182.85 per ounce.