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2026-02-27 06:03:38
[The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March remains stable at 96%, while expectations for a rate cut continue to shift later] 1. According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch," the market expects a 96.0% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut remains at 4.0%. The market has largely priced in the expectation of a rate cut in March. 2. For subsequent meetings: By April, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 17.3%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 82.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is only 0.6%. By June, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 43.0%, further converging from previous levels, indicating that market expectations for a mid-year rate cut are also weakening.
