February 27th Financial Breakfast: Awaiting the outcome of US-Iran nuclear negotiations, gold prices held steady at $5180, while oil prices faced downward pressure.
2026-02-27 07:20:57
On Friday (February 27, Beijing time) in early Asian trading, spot gold was trading around $5,185 per ounce. Gold prices held steady on Thursday as the market remained cautious ahead of the third round of indirect nuclear talks between the United States and Iran in Geneva, hoping for signals of easing geopolitical tensions. US crude oil was trading around $65.25 per barrel. Oil prices closed lower on Thursday after volatile trading, with investors closely watching the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding their nuclear programs.
The Nasdaq Composite Index fell sharply by 1.18% on Thursday to close at 22,878.38 points, as tech stocks were dragged down by disappointing earnings from AI pioneer Nvidia.
Meanwhile, a rebound in cyclical sectors helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise slightly by 0.03% to 49,499.20 points, while the S&P 500 fell 0.54% to 6,908.86 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 3.2%, potentially ending its record 11-week winning streak.
Nvidia shares plunged 5.5% despite better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, but slowing revenue growth fueled market concerns. The chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management said this resembles an "Nvidia hangover" in the artificial intelligence sector, with investors selling off positions while simultaneously driving up previously shorted stocks.
In terms of sectors, technology and communication services stocks saw the largest declines, while financial stocks led the gains, driven by large bank stocks. The software and services index rose 1.4%, thanks to a surge in Salesforce shares. Trade Desk fell 4.8% due to disappointing revenue expectations; JM Smucker, on the other hand, surged 8.8% on better-than-expected quarterly results.
Spot gold was little changed on Thursday, trading at $5,168.72 an ounce, as markets remained cautious ahead of the third round of indirect nuclear talks between the United States and Iran in Geneva, hoping for signs of easing geopolitical tensions.
Analysts point out that gold prices are attempting to break through the $5,200 resistance level, but the risk of a pullback will increase if an agreement is reached in the short term; other strategists say that although a short-term pullback is possible, gold prices are still expected to climb above $5,340.
Iranian officials said that if the United States addresses nuclear and non-nuclear issues separately, the two sides could reach a framework agreement.
Other influencing factors include the U.S. Trade Representative's announcement that tariffs on some countries will be raised from 10% to 15% or higher, a slight increase in initial jobless claims last week, and the market's continued expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell 2.5% to $87.14 per ounce; platinum declined 2.2% to $2236.37 per ounce; and palladium fell 1.9% to $1761.05 per ounce.
Oil prices closed lower on Thursday after volatile trading, with Brent crude futures down 0.14% to $70.75 a barrel and WTI crude futures down 0.32% to $65.21 a barrel, as investors closely watched the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran over their nuclear programs.
Negotiations stalled as the United States insisted that Iran achieve zero uranium enrichment and hand over its enriched uranium, pushing oil prices up by more than $1; however, oil prices subsequently fell back as the two countries extended negotiations into next week, reducing the possibility of immediate military conflict.
The Omani Foreign Minister stated that significant progress had been made in the negotiations, and the Iranian Foreign Minister also described the talks as the most serious exchange to date. Dubai oil traders pointed out that the crude oil sell-off was essentially a market reaction to the elimination of geopolitical risk premiums.
The yen rebounded on Thursday, rising 0.12% to 156.15 yen against the dollar, after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that whether to raise interest rates at the March and April meetings would depend on economic data, and that the central bank would continue to raise rates if progress was made in achieving economic and price expectations.
Market sentiment was subdued as traders awaited new catalysts, with the dollar index rising 0.18% to 97.79 and the euro falling 0.11% against the dollar to $1.1796. The U.S. Trade Representative indicated that tariffs on some countries would be raised from 10% to 15% or higher, and the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until at least June. Data showed a slight increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week.
TD Securities analysts noted that the risk of a weakening dollar remains in the coming quarters. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde expects inflation to stabilize near the 2% target, and the central bank sold some dollar assets and reduced the dollar's weighting in its foreign exchange reserves early last year. The pound fell 0.52% to $1.3486 as investors focused on the Manchester local elections.
Iranian Foreign Minister: The third round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States has made good progress.
On February 26 local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated after the conclusion of the third round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States that this was the most serious and longest round of talks to date. The negotiations made good progress, and in some areas, the two sides are close to reaching a consensus. Technical teams from both sides will hold technical negotiations next Monday (March 2) in Vienna, Austria.
Iranian media: Iran refuses to transfer enriched uranium abroad.
According to a report by Iranian state television on the 26th, during indirect negotiations with the United States in Geneva, Switzerland, Iran stated that it would refuse to transfer its enriched uranium abroad. The report also said that Iran insisted on retaining its right to peaceful use of nuclear technology and its ability to produce nuclear fuel, and demanded that the United States lift sanctions against Iran. According to a previous report by the Wall Street Journal, the US may have explicitly demanded during the negotiations that Iran dismantle its main nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, and transport all remaining enriched uranium to the United States. (Xinhua)
Satellite images show 11 US F-22 stealth fighter jets arriving in Israel.
Satellite images released on February 26 local time show that 11 U.S. F-22 Raptor stealth fighter jets have been deployed to Ofda Air Base in southern Israel. These fifth-generation fighters are an important component of the latest U.S. military deployment in the Middle East. The F-22 Raptor stealth fighter possesses air-to-air and air-to-ground combat capabilities and is the first U.S. military aircraft to have supersonic cruise capability, allowing it to fly at supersonic speeds for extended periods without using a fuel-intensive afterburner. Due to its classified technology, the U.S. prohibits the sale of this type of aircraft to other countries. (CCTV News)
The UK says it will not proceed with the Chagos Islands agreement without Trump's support.
The UK has stated that it will not implement the treaty transferring the Chagos Islands to Mauritius without US support. This statement implies that the process may continue to be delayed, given Trump's recent shift in opposition to the agreement. Currently, legislation to implement the treaty is progressing in the UK Parliament, but the agreement has not yet been formally implemented. In recent weeks, the Trump administration has wavered on its stance regarding the agreement. In January, Trump called the agreement "completely weak" and "extremely stupid," earlier this month he said it was the "best outcome" the UK could achieve, but last week he again criticized the agreement as a "major mistake."
Trump and the military have significant differences regarding action against Iran.
The third round of indirect nuclear talks between the United States and Iran took place in Geneva on February 26. Meanwhile, the US Navy's second aircraft carrier continued its deployment to the Middle East, and the US has recently deployed over 150 military aircraft to bases in Europe and the Middle East, marking the largest US military deployment in the region since the 2003 Iraq War. However, according to US media reports, there are significant differences between the US military and President Trump regarding whether to take military action against Iran. (CCTV International News)
World Gold Council: Gold holdings remain low, but caution is advised regarding overvaluation and macroeconomic risks.
The World Gold Council points out that the significant discrepancy between current confidence in the economic outlook and uncertainty surrounding economic policies is one of the key reasons for gold's outstanding performance over the past year and its continued strong performance so far this year. While some may worry about gold being overbought and finding buyers willing to make small investments may be difficult, strategically, gold holdings remain low. Currently, the core issue for investors is how to rationally allocate their portfolios between market outlook certainty and policy uncertainty. Indeed, investors can and should recognize the monetary and fundamental factors driving market gains—especially given the anticipated further easing in 2026. However, overvaluation and persistent macroeconomic risks warrant caution, highlighting the necessity of portfolio diversification. Given the ongoing geopolitical and US policy shifts influencing asset allocation, we believe a focus should be placed on high-quality assets, such as gold.
During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 5.7% compared to the 2025 Spring Festival holiday.
Business big data shows that during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 5.7% compared to the 2025 Spring Festival holiday, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.6 percentage points. The number of visitors and sales revenue of the 78 pedestrian streets (business districts) monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 6.7% and 7.5% respectively compared to the previous year's Spring Festival holiday.
In terms of consumer goods, the trade-in program continued to unleash consumer demand. As of February 23, 2026, the trade-in program for consumer goods benefited 31.127 million people, driving sales of 207.03 billion yuan. Demand for smart and green products was strong. During this year's Spring Festival holiday, sales of smart glasses and body-worn smart robots on key platforms increased by 47.3% and 32.7% respectively compared to the same period last year, while water-saving bathroom fixtures and organic food increased by 23.2% and 26.5% respectively.
Key Focus Today
stock market
The Nasdaq Composite Index fell sharply by 1.18% on Thursday to close at 22,878.38 points, as tech stocks were dragged down by disappointing earnings from AI pioneer Nvidia.
Meanwhile, a rebound in cyclical sectors helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average rise slightly by 0.03% to 49,499.20 points, while the S&P 500 fell 0.54% to 6,908.86 points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 3.2%, potentially ending its record 11-week winning streak.
Nvidia shares plunged 5.5% despite better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings, but slowing revenue growth fueled market concerns. The chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management said this resembles an "Nvidia hangover" in the artificial intelligence sector, with investors selling off positions while simultaneously driving up previously shorted stocks.
In terms of sectors, technology and communication services stocks saw the largest declines, while financial stocks led the gains, driven by large bank stocks. The software and services index rose 1.4%, thanks to a surge in Salesforce shares. Trade Desk fell 4.8% due to disappointing revenue expectations; JM Smucker, on the other hand, surged 8.8% on better-than-expected quarterly results.
Gold Market
Spot gold was little changed on Thursday, trading at $5,168.72 an ounce, as markets remained cautious ahead of the third round of indirect nuclear talks between the United States and Iran in Geneva, hoping for signs of easing geopolitical tensions.
Analysts point out that gold prices are attempting to break through the $5,200 resistance level, but the risk of a pullback will increase if an agreement is reached in the short term; other strategists say that although a short-term pullback is possible, gold prices are still expected to climb above $5,340.
Iranian officials said that if the United States addresses nuclear and non-nuclear issues separately, the two sides could reach a framework agreement.
Other influencing factors include the U.S. Trade Representative's announcement that tariffs on some countries will be raised from 10% to 15% or higher, a slight increase in initial jobless claims last week, and the market's continued expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year.
In other precious metals, spot silver fell 2.5% to $87.14 per ounce; platinum declined 2.2% to $2236.37 per ounce; and palladium fell 1.9% to $1761.05 per ounce.
oil market
Oil prices closed lower on Thursday after volatile trading, with Brent crude futures down 0.14% to $70.75 a barrel and WTI crude futures down 0.32% to $65.21 a barrel, as investors closely watched the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran over their nuclear programs.
Negotiations stalled as the United States insisted that Iran achieve zero uranium enrichment and hand over its enriched uranium, pushing oil prices up by more than $1; however, oil prices subsequently fell back as the two countries extended negotiations into next week, reducing the possibility of immediate military conflict.
The Omani Foreign Minister stated that significant progress had been made in the negotiations, and the Iranian Foreign Minister also described the talks as the most serious exchange to date. Dubai oil traders pointed out that the crude oil sell-off was essentially a market reaction to the elimination of geopolitical risk premiums.
Foreign exchange market
The yen rebounded on Thursday, rising 0.12% to 156.15 yen against the dollar, after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that whether to raise interest rates at the March and April meetings would depend on economic data, and that the central bank would continue to raise rates if progress was made in achieving economic and price expectations.
Market sentiment was subdued as traders awaited new catalysts, with the dollar index rising 0.18% to 97.79 and the euro falling 0.11% against the dollar to $1.1796. The U.S. Trade Representative indicated that tariffs on some countries would be raised from 10% to 15% or higher, and the market anticipates the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until at least June. Data showed a slight increase in initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week.
TD Securities analysts noted that the risk of a weakening dollar remains in the coming quarters. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde expects inflation to stabilize near the 2% target, and the central bank sold some dollar assets and reduced the dollar's weighting in its foreign exchange reserves early last year. The pound fell 0.52% to $1.3486 as investors focused on the Manchester local elections.
International News
Iranian Foreign Minister: The third round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States has made good progress.
On February 26 local time, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated after the conclusion of the third round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States that this was the most serious and longest round of talks to date. The negotiations made good progress, and in some areas, the two sides are close to reaching a consensus. Technical teams from both sides will hold technical negotiations next Monday (March 2) in Vienna, Austria.
Iranian media: Iran refuses to transfer enriched uranium abroad.
According to a report by Iranian state television on the 26th, during indirect negotiations with the United States in Geneva, Switzerland, Iran stated that it would refuse to transfer its enriched uranium abroad. The report also said that Iran insisted on retaining its right to peaceful use of nuclear technology and its ability to produce nuclear fuel, and demanded that the United States lift sanctions against Iran. According to a previous report by the Wall Street Journal, the US may have explicitly demanded during the negotiations that Iran dismantle its main nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, and transport all remaining enriched uranium to the United States. (Xinhua)
Satellite images show 11 US F-22 stealth fighter jets arriving in Israel.
Satellite images released on February 26 local time show that 11 U.S. F-22 Raptor stealth fighter jets have been deployed to Ofda Air Base in southern Israel. These fifth-generation fighters are an important component of the latest U.S. military deployment in the Middle East. The F-22 Raptor stealth fighter possesses air-to-air and air-to-ground combat capabilities and is the first U.S. military aircraft to have supersonic cruise capability, allowing it to fly at supersonic speeds for extended periods without using a fuel-intensive afterburner. Due to its classified technology, the U.S. prohibits the sale of this type of aircraft to other countries. (CCTV News)
The UK says it will not proceed with the Chagos Islands agreement without Trump's support.
The UK has stated that it will not implement the treaty transferring the Chagos Islands to Mauritius without US support. This statement implies that the process may continue to be delayed, given Trump's recent shift in opposition to the agreement. Currently, legislation to implement the treaty is progressing in the UK Parliament, but the agreement has not yet been formally implemented. In recent weeks, the Trump administration has wavered on its stance regarding the agreement. In January, Trump called the agreement "completely weak" and "extremely stupid," earlier this month he said it was the "best outcome" the UK could achieve, but last week he again criticized the agreement as a "major mistake."
Trump and the military have significant differences regarding action against Iran.
The third round of indirect nuclear talks between the United States and Iran took place in Geneva on February 26. Meanwhile, the US Navy's second aircraft carrier continued its deployment to the Middle East, and the US has recently deployed over 150 military aircraft to bases in Europe and the Middle East, marking the largest US military deployment in the region since the 2003 Iraq War. However, according to US media reports, there are significant differences between the US military and President Trump regarding whether to take military action against Iran. (CCTV International News)
World Gold Council: Gold holdings remain low, but caution is advised regarding overvaluation and macroeconomic risks.
The World Gold Council points out that the significant discrepancy between current confidence in the economic outlook and uncertainty surrounding economic policies is one of the key reasons for gold's outstanding performance over the past year and its continued strong performance so far this year. While some may worry about gold being overbought and finding buyers willing to make small investments may be difficult, strategically, gold holdings remain low. Currently, the core issue for investors is how to rationally allocate their portfolios between market outlook certainty and policy uncertainty. Indeed, investors can and should recognize the monetary and fundamental factors driving market gains—especially given the anticipated further easing in 2026. However, overvaluation and persistent macroeconomic risks warrant caution, highlighting the necessity of portfolio diversification. Given the ongoing geopolitical and US policy shifts influencing asset allocation, we believe a focus should be placed on high-quality assets, such as gold.
Domestic News
During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 5.7% compared to the 2025 Spring Festival holiday.
Business big data shows that during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises nationwide increased by 5.7% compared to the 2025 Spring Festival holiday, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.6 percentage points. The number of visitors and sales revenue of the 78 pedestrian streets (business districts) monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased by 6.7% and 7.5% respectively compared to the previous year's Spring Festival holiday.
In terms of consumer goods, the trade-in program continued to unleash consumer demand. As of February 23, 2026, the trade-in program for consumer goods benefited 31.127 million people, driving sales of 207.03 billion yuan. Demand for smart and green products was strong. During this year's Spring Festival holiday, sales of smart glasses and body-worn smart robots on key platforms increased by 47.3% and 32.7% respectively compared to the same period last year, while water-saving bathroom fixtures and organic food increased by 23.2% and 26.5% respectively.
- Risk Warning and Disclaimer
- The market involves risk, and trading may not be suitable for all investors. This article is for reference only and does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account certain users’ specific investment objectives, financial situation, or other needs. Any investment decisions made based on this information are at your own risk.
