The US dollar index remained range-bound, awaiting guidance from PPI data.
2026-02-27 14:05:17
On Friday during Asian trading hours, the US dollar index (DXY) fluctuated around 97.70. The recent movement of the US dollar has been mainly influenced by two factors: trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
Regarding US trade policy, President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a flat 15% tariff on imported goods. This follows a Supreme Court ruling that the emergency powers tariff framework used by the government did not fully support its policy framework.
Subsequently, U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer stated that tariffs in some countries could be further increased to over 15% in the coming days. Such policy fluctuations increase market uncertainty and typically suppress the medium-term upward trend of the US dollar, but they can also lead to short-term volatility in safe-haven demand.
Regarding inflation data, the market is focused on the upcoming US January PPI data. Wholesale inflation is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, lower than the previous month's 0.5%. If inflation data continues to decline, it may strengthen market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, thereby weakening the attractiveness of dollar assets.
Conversely, if inflation rebounds, it could delay the rate-cutting cycle and support the dollar's performance. Geopolitically, the Iranian nuclear issue remains a significant market variable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that the negotiations were the most substantive round to date and proposed a framework for sanctions lifting.
However, US sources indicated dissatisfaction with the negotiation outcome. Technical negotiations will continue in Vienna. Iran has stated it will not allow enriched uranium to leave the country, while the US maintains a large-scale military deployment in the Middle East, keeping markets cautious.
Safe-haven demand is supporting the US dollar to some extent, but policy uncertainty is limiting upward momentum. Overall, the US dollar index is currently in a state of mixed bullish and bearish factors, and is more likely to fluctuate in the short term.
The daily chart shows the US dollar index remains in a high-level range-bound pattern. The recent upward trend has slowed, with prices retreating after encountering resistance near 98.00. While the overall moving average system remains bullish, short-term moving averages are gradually flattening, indicating weakening upward momentum.
The MACD bullish momentum bars are gradually contracting, indicating a decline in upward momentum; the RSI is around 55, in the neutral-to-strong zone, and has not entered overbought territory. The Bollinger Bands are showing a narrowing trend, with the price gradually moving towards the middle band, which usually means the market is waiting for a directional catalyst.
Editor's Note:
The current dollar trend is primarily driven by both the inflation path and policy uncertainty. If US PPI data continues to decline, the market may re-trade for Fed rate cuts, putting downward pressure on the dollar; if inflation remains sticky, the dollar may maintain its strong structure.
In the short term, the US dollar index is more likely to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, and a true directional trend will still need to wait for further clarification of macroeconomic data and geopolitical situation.
Regarding US trade policy, President Donald Trump announced plans to impose a flat 15% tariff on imported goods. This follows a Supreme Court ruling that the emergency powers tariff framework used by the government did not fully support its policy framework.
Subsequently, U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer stated that tariffs in some countries could be further increased to over 15% in the coming days. Such policy fluctuations increase market uncertainty and typically suppress the medium-term upward trend of the US dollar, but they can also lead to short-term volatility in safe-haven demand.
Regarding inflation data, the market is focused on the upcoming US January PPI data. Wholesale inflation is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, lower than the previous month's 0.5%. If inflation data continues to decline, it may strengthen market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, thereby weakening the attractiveness of dollar assets.
Conversely, if inflation rebounds, it could delay the rate-cutting cycle and support the dollar's performance. Geopolitically, the Iranian nuclear issue remains a significant market variable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi stated that the negotiations were the most substantive round to date and proposed a framework for sanctions lifting.
However, US sources indicated dissatisfaction with the negotiation outcome. Technical negotiations will continue in Vienna. Iran has stated it will not allow enriched uranium to leave the country, while the US maintains a large-scale military deployment in the Middle East, keeping markets cautious.
Safe-haven demand is supporting the US dollar to some extent, but policy uncertainty is limiting upward momentum. Overall, the US dollar index is currently in a state of mixed bullish and bearish factors, and is more likely to fluctuate in the short term.
The daily chart shows the US dollar index remains in a high-level range-bound pattern. The recent upward trend has slowed, with prices retreating after encountering resistance near 98.00. While the overall moving average system remains bullish, short-term moving averages are gradually flattening, indicating weakening upward momentum.
The MACD bullish momentum bars are gradually contracting, indicating a decline in upward momentum; the RSI is around 55, in the neutral-to-strong zone, and has not entered overbought territory. The Bollinger Bands are showing a narrowing trend, with the price gradually moving towards the middle band, which usually means the market is waiting for a directional catalyst.
Editor's Note:
The current dollar trend is primarily driven by both the inflation path and policy uncertainty. If US PPI data continues to decline, the market may re-trade for Fed rate cuts, putting downward pressure on the dollar; if inflation remains sticky, the dollar may maintain its strong structure.
In the short term, the US dollar index is more likely to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, and a true directional trend will still need to wait for further clarification of macroeconomic data and geopolitical situation.
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