Table of Contents

• Current status of Iran's missile capabilities


• Latest developments in US-Israeli military operations


• Missile Stockpile and Protracted War Assessment


• Analysis of the Strait of Hormuz Blockade


• Gulf States' Involvement and Response


• Oil price shock and its impact on the global economy


• Statements from both sides and the prospects for conflict

Current status of Iran's missile capabilities

According to the latest intelligence, Iran has launched a large number of ballistic missiles and drones in the joint US-Israeli strikes, but its key missile launchers and production facilities have suffered heavy damage. Israeli officials have confirmed that approximately 70% of the missile launchers have been destroyed, resulting in a significant decrease in the intensity of Iran's retaliatory launches. President Trump has publicly stated that Iran's key weapons and launchers are nearing depletion, and Western assessments suggest that Iran's capacity for a large-scale saturation attack may only last a few days. Iran is currently shifting to using low-cost drones and its remaining short-range missiles to maintain a limited counterattack; while its actual capability has diminished, it has not been completely exhausted. This shift marks Iran's move from "saturation strikes" to "guerrilla harassment," making it unlikely to pose a decisive threat to the US and Israel in the short term.

Latest developments in US-Israeli military operations

On the fifth day of the conflict, the US-Israeli "Operation Epic Fury" has precisely targeted more than 2,000 Iranian targets, including nuclear facilities, command centers, air defense systems, and naval vessels. A US submarine sank an Iranian warship for the first time since World War II, and the US military has established air superiority. US Defense Secretary Hegseth announced at a Pentagon briefing on March 4 that the two most powerful air forces of the US and Israel would achieve complete uncontested airspace within days, emphasizing that "more aircraft are arriving every day, and we are accelerating." This development means that the US military will achieve all-weather, uncontested airspace dominance, exerting pressure across the skies, the seabed, and cyberspace.

Missile Stockpile and Protracted War Assessment

Iran initially possessed approximately 2,500 medium-range ballistic missiles, but the launchers and production chain remain the biggest bottlenecks. The US and Israel have destroyed numerous launch platforms and production facilities, significantly limiting Iran's monthly production capacity. Trump initially anticipated the operation would last four to five weeks but acknowledged it could be extended. Hegseth indicated the operation could last several weeks. A key issue is the rapid depletion of US and Israeli interceptor stockpiles (THAAD, Patriot), with significant reserves recently used. While Iranian drones are easily replenished, their ballistic missile capabilities are being continuously weakened. If the conflict drags on, the US defense pressure will increase, potentially requiring additional funding from Congress or adjustments to strategy.

Analysis of the Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed "complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to strike any ships passing through, resulting in a substantial disruption to oil tanker traffic. However, Trump quickly responded, stating that the US Navy would escort tankers through and provide political risk insurance through the Development Finance Corporation to ensure the free flow of global energy. The US Central Command denied that the strait closure had severely damaged the main Iranian navy, sinking several ships. Iran lacks the sustained naval strength to maintain a complete blockade; if the US were to intervene on a large scale, the blockade would quickly collapse. While traffic is currently reduced by 90%, it is not completely shut down, highlighting that Iran's threat outweighs its actual capability.

Gulf States' Involvement and Response

Iran's retaliation affected multiple countries, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, attacking US military bases, airports, energy facilities, and civilian targets. The UAE intercepted hundreds of missiles and drones but suffered casualties; Qatari bases were hit by missiles; Saudi oil facilities and Riyadh were attacked by drones. The Gulf states collectively condemned Iran's violation of their sovereignty, reserving their right to self-defense, but explicitly stated their unwillingness to engage in full-scale war, opting only for defensive measures and refusing to allow their territories to be used for an attack on Iran. The attacks disrupted regional stability, forcing these countries to reassess their security strategies and facing short-term economic disruptions and refugee risks.

Oil price shock and its impact on the global economy

Brent crude has broken through $80 per barrel, and Goldman Sachs warns that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for several weeks, oil prices could rise to over $100 per barrel, or even higher. The risk premium has reached $14-18 per barrel; a prolonged disruption could trigger a global supply crisis. Asian importers are facing the greatest inflationary pressures, while European natural gas prices have surged. Global oil reserves can provide a short-term buffer, but a prolonged disruption would lead to supply chain disruptions, soaring transportation costs, and the risk of stagflation. Trump's promise to safeguard shipping is intended to stabilize the market, but uncertainty has already pushed up oil prices, becoming a core variable in the global economic chain reaction.

Statements from the US and Iran and the Prospects for Conflict

Ali Larijani, chairman of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated unequivocally, "We will not negotiate with the United States," emphasizing that the current focus is solely on defense and counterattack. Hegseth, however, stated, "We've only just begun, we're accelerating," and that Iran is "finished." The US and Israel aim to completely destroy Iran's missile, nuclear, and naval capabilities, and the conflict is shifting towards a war of attrition. US-Israeli air superiority is nearing its end, but their interceptor stockpile is limited; the threat of Iranian drones persists. The attitudes of Gulf states, developments in the Strait of Hormuz, and soaring oil prices may be key to a ceasefire. If the US and Israel quickly complete their destruction mission, the conflict could end within weeks; otherwise, regional instability will escalate, and the global economic cost will rise.

Q: Does Iran really only have a few days left to develop its missile capabilities?

A: Not completely depleted, but severely damaged. After the US and Israel destroyed 70% of its launchers, Iran shifted from large-scale saturation attacks to low-cost drone and short-range missile counterattacks, extending its inventory assessment from "days" to "weeks." This reflects that its production chain and launch platforms are critical bottlenecks.

Q: How does the US military achieve complete control over Iranian airspace?

A: By striking over 2,000 targets with Operation Epic Fury and with daily reinforcements, Hegseth has confirmed that it will achieve "uncontested airspace" within days. This allows the US and Israel to strike the remaining facilities around the clock, marking an upgrade of air superiority from "establishment" to "monopoly."

Q: Can the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz last?

A: Impossible. The main force of the Iranian navy has been sunk, and it lacks the strength to maintain a complete blockade. The US escort and insurance policy has been activated; although traffic has decreased, it has not been shut down. The threat of a blockade outweighs its actual ability to be implemented.

Q: Why are the Gulf states unwilling to engage in a full-scale war?

A: After being attacked by Iranian missiles, they only conducted defensive interception, collectively condemned the attack but emphasized the "right to self-defense" rather than offense, fearing that their homeland would become a battlefield, economic disruption and refugee crisis, and prioritizing the protection of their own stability.

Q: What chain reaction will rising oil prices have on the global economy?

A: Brent crude oil prices have broken through $80, and Goldman Sachs predicts that if the disruption continues, prices could reach over $100. Asian inflation, soaring European natural gas prices, and supply chain disruptions will trigger stagflation. The US's escort measures aim to mitigate this, but uncertainty has become the core of global risk.